The lockdown measures brought in by most governments have succeeded in slowing the spread of the virus and in reducing the death toll, but have also frozen business activity in many sectors and unemployment is soaring. As restrictions begin to ease, the path to economic recovery remains highly uncertain, with two likely scenarios. In one, a second wave of Covid-19 hits, with renewed lock-downs, and unemployment climbs to 10.2% worldwide. In the other, a second wave is avoided and unemployment reaches 9.4%. In both cases, unemployment is expected to continue rising through the first half