OECD Economic Outlook May 2019

Trade uncertainty
dragging down
global growth

#EconomicOutlook

Trade uncertainty dragging down global growth

#EconomicOutlook

We can't accept an economy that doesn't work for everyone

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Key take-aways

Global growth is stabilising at a low level

Trade growth has plunged and investment has slowed.
Manufacturing is weak, but jobs and services are supporting consumption.
A slight-pick up by 2020 will not be enough to lift living standards.

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Global economic growth is stabilising at a low level

Key risks: Trade tensions, China slowdown and high debt

Further increases in trade restrictions would hurt workers and consumers.
A sharp slowdown in China would hit activity around the world.
Private, often risky debt is building up.

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Key risks: Trade tensions, China slowdown and high debt

Act now to boost opportunities

Invest in infrastructure, digital transformation and skills.
In the euro area, stimulate activity before it’s too late.
Resolve trade disputes through international cooperation.

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Act now to boost opportunities

Key data

Global growth has stabilised but remains weak …

Year-on-year

Source: OECD (2019), OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2019 Issue 1: Preliminary version, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/b2e897b0-en

… as trade growth has fallen sharply.

Goods and services

Source: OECD (2019), OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2019 Issue 1: Preliminary version, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/b2e897b0-en

Without new skills, many workers risk being left behind

Share of workers in occupations at high risk of automation by income class

Source: OECD (2019), Under Pressure: The Squeezed Middle Class, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/689afed1-en

Projections by country

These interactive charts show the latest forecasts for Real GDP, inflation, domestic demand or unemployment rates by country.

View the presentation with summary of projections.

What does it mean for you ?

We pay more for the products we buy, companies sell less, and jobs are lost. 14 million jobs in the US, 12 million in Germany and 9 million in Japan depend on exports. For US consumers, recently announced 25% tariff hikes on Chinese imports will add another 75 dollars on to the cost of a 300-dollar TV.

Why is growth so weak?

Trade tensions have disrupted growth. With uncertainty high and confidence low, investment has suffered, and the manufacturing sector has taken a hit.
Laurence Boone, OECD Chief Economist

Trade tensions and rising tariffs have hit confidence. Investment is low and although the services sector is holding up, manufacturing output has weakened.

What does it mean for you ?

If the US imposes 25% tariffs on cars imported from the EU, American consumer prices for foreign vehicles will rise by 9% on average. And the European automotive sector would lose sales and jobs.

What are the risks?

Key risks include a prolonged period of higher tariffs between the US and China, new trade barriers between the US and EU, a sharper slowdown in China, prolonged sub-par growth in Europe and financial vulnerabilities from high debt.
Source: OECD (2019), OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2019 Issue 1: Preliminary version, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/b2e897b0-en

Over the past months, euro area trade has stalled, and exports from Japan, Korea and South-East Asia to China have shrunk. New tariffs on all US-China trade would further depress trade and growth.

What does it mean for you ?

Fast internet is increasingly key to the way we work and consume, but only 1 in 14 people across the OECD have a fibre broadband subscription. People in rural areas have even less.

What needs to be done?

Governments must intensify international dialogue to restore confidence, and invest to prepare for tomorrow’s challenges: better skills and infrastructure for a digital world are sorely needed.
Laurence Boone, Chief Economist

Public investment collapsed after the financial crisis and still has not recovered. A lack of skills and infrastructure help explain why digital technologies have failed to lift productivity and wages.

The Future of Work is now

Digital technologies are increasingly present in our lives. To reap the benefits, workers need to gain new skills. Businesses need to change how they are organised and how they use resources. If we do not act, we risk leaving people behind.