OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report September 2020

Global outlook less pessimistic, but risks and uncertainty remain high

After collapsing in the first half of the year, economic output recovered swiftly following the easing of measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic and the initial re-opening of businesses. Policymakers reacted rapidly and massively to buffer the initial blow to incomes and jobs. But the pace of recovery has lost momentum over the summer. Restoring confidence will be crucial to how successfully economies can recover, and for this we need to learn to safely live with the virus.

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What can governments do to build confidence?

Prospects for economic growth will depend on various factors, including the likelihood of new virus outbreaks, the impact on consumer and business confidence, and the extent to which government aid for jobs and businesses can boost demand. The unprecedented policy support by governments needs to continue, but become more targeted and be flexible enough to adapt to changing conditions. Policymakers need to convince people that they are working to improve their lives and creating opportunities for all.

Invest in health

Invest in health systems so they can respond to care demands and bring the virus under control.
Leverage greater funding and multilateral efforts through global co-operation and co-ordination to ensure that affordable vaccines and treatments are available rapidly, wherever needed.

> Resources on resilient healthcare

Invest in a green recovery

Target digitalisation, job retention and other support policies that encourage businesses to invest in sustainable products, services and behaviour.

Leverage investment in green energy, infrastructure, transport and housing to speed up the low-carbon transition.

> Resources on green recovery

Invest in a green recovery

Invest in people

Provide adequate social protection for the vulnerable.
Ensure opportunities are available to all, through quality education, training and new types of work.
Target support where it will be the most needed to improve prospects, particularly for the low-skilled and youth

> Resources on social challenges

Invest in people

GDP projections

All G20 countries with the exception of China will have suffered recession in 2020. Although a fragile recovery is expected next year, in many countries output at the end of 2021 will still be below levels at the end of 2019, and well below what was projected prior to the pandemic.