The war is slowing the recovery

Prior to the war, the world economy was on track for a strong, albeit uneven, recovery from COVID-19. The conflict in Ukraine and the supply-chain disruptions exacerbated by shutdowns in China due to the zero-COVID policy are dealing a serious blow to the recovery.

Global GDP growth is now projected to slow sharply this year, to around 3%, and remain at a similar pace in 2023. This is well below the pace of recovery projected last December.

Growth is set to be markedly weaker than expected in almost all economies. Many of the hardest-hit countries are in Europe, which is highly exposed to the war through energy imports and refugee flows.

Countries worldwide are being hit by higher commodity prices, which add to inflationary pressures and curb real incomes and spending, further dampening the recovery.

This growth slowdown is a price of war which will be paid through lower incomes and fewer job opportunities.

See also: OECD Economic Outlook, June 2022.