A home for 127 million: The future of housing in Egypt in 2030

Each year, Egypt’s population increases by at least 1.6 million people. Within only three years, the country hosts an additional population of the size of small European countries such as Denmark, Slovakia or Norway. Current urban policies have been unable to keep pace with these demographic pressures, which has led to uncontrolled urban expansion, environmental degradation and precarious living conditions. Cairo, Africa’s most populous city, has reached over 23 million residents. Urban sprawl is pushing current boundaries further and further. While the government has successfully eliminated “unsafe areas”, lack of infrastructure to ensure basic service provision remains a challenge for many vulnerable, unplanned neighbourhoods, exacerbating existing inequalities.

According to national statistics, which use a purely administrative definition of “urban”, 43% of Egyptians lived in urban areas in 2020. However, as illustrated in Figure 1 below, data from the internationally harmonised definition of cities show that in 2015, 66% of Egyptians lived in urban centres (red) and 27% occupied semi-dense urban areas (yellow), totalling 93% of the population. This is a substantial gap, which merits considering an approach that more accurately reflects settlement patterns and informs effective urban and socio-economic planning. The upcoming 2026 population census presents an opportunity to reconsider administrative divisions and redefine urban areas.

Figure 1. The binary categories of urban and rural areas no longer reflect Egypt’s urban realities 

Note: This map focuses on densely populated areas and does not reflect Egypt’s full territory. The degree of urbanisation classifies municipalities based on their population share in three types of grid cells: “cities” have the majority of their population in an urban centre; “towns and suburbs” have the majority of their population in an urban cluster but are not cities; “rural areas” have the majority of their population in rural grid cells. An urban centre consists of 1 km² with a density of at least 1 500 inhabitants per km² and a minimum total population of 50 000. An urban cluster consists of 1 km² with a density of at least 300 inhabitants per km² and a minimum total population of 5 000.

Source: European Commission, Copernicus (2024). Testing the degree of urbanisation at the global level, Egypt Country Summary, https://human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu/documents/cfs01/V3/CFS_Egypt.pdf.

Since the 1970s, the government has built new urban communities (NUC) to relieve pressure from saturated urban areas (Figure 2). Over time, these new cities have become greener, with larger areas dedicated to green spaces and gardens. While many of the 4^th generation of NUCs will make stronger use of renewable energy sources, they continue to be constructed in an expansive manner, increasing the carbon footprint of mobility. Moreover, housing affordability remains a challenge, and NUCs have struggled to attract new residents. As a result, less than 10% of Egypt’s population currently lives in NUCs, which remain well below their intended population targets. An overall assessment of the viability, attractiveness and environmental footprint of these new cities could help the government guide future policy making. Given that most Egyptians will continue to live in existing urban areas, it is essential to redirect policy focus towards transformative change in these established urban agglomerations. Urgent action is needed to address the challenges faced by existing cities, ensuring they become more resilient and sustainable for their inhabitants.

Figure 2. Egypt counts 23 new urban communities and plans to build another 23 by 2030 

Note: This map focuses on New Urban Communities and does not reflect Egypt’s full territory.
Source: Country submission (2024).

In 2023, the government adopted a new National Urban Policy (NUP) which will be presented at WUF12. The new policy aims to establish a more balanced system of cities and tap into development opportunities of urban clusters by strengthening their competitiveness, connectivity, and attractiveness through a more integrated development model. This initiative is promising, and it will be critical to integrate sustainability aspects in all NUP measures and act to rapidly develop action plans, accompanied with adequate finance and institutional mechanisms, to ensure effective implementation.

To support the development of an action plan, two policy dialogue meetings  were organised by the Egyptian Ministry of Environment and the OECD in the context the WUF within the Egypt-OECD country programme. Drawing on findings and recommendations from the OECD Green Growth Policy Review of Egypt, key stakeholders discussed action proposals on how to translate recommendations into practice. The outcomes will inform the ongoing reflections of a newly established Egyptian government Committee on Climate and the Environment.

Environmental considerations need to be further mainstreamed into all urban development plans and related urban and land-use planning tools. Despite many guidelines, a significant gap persists between strategic plans and actual green measures in local development plans. This is mainly because centralised national institutions in charge of planning remain disconnected from implementation; the monitoring and evaluation process is often missing to close the policy cycle loop. Transitioning to more integrated, decentralised, participatory approaches could help Egypt better align urban policies with local development needs. This requires strengthening competences, capacities and financial autonomy of subnational governments and increasing citizen engagement in the planning and implementation process.  

To build climate-smart cities, it is essential to strengthen and green building codes. Strengthening the use of economic incentives could help convince a larger number of developers to adopt more sustainable practices and pursue green building certifications. For instance, increased integration of solar panels on rooftops could significantly reduce households’ electricity bills and reduce grid stress during peak demand periods. The deployment of electric buses is making new strides since the successful electrification of the bus transit network in Sharm El Sheikh. However, substantial investments are needed, including in secondary cities, to enhance public transport systems, ensuring they can accommodate demand, are better connected, and safe for all users.  

Efforts are underway to downscale climate risk assessments at subnational level and develop effective early warning systems for cities. However, many governorates still lack awareness and capacity to implement climate action effectively. New constructions continue to be on the rise in high-risk areas, especially along Egypt’s coastline. Increasing urban green spaces can help build climate resilience and reduce emissions, while making cities more liveable for residents.

In line with the WUF slogan, Egyptian citizens can also contribute with many little steps to making their cities and communities more sustainable. Many Egyptians have already switched to energy-saving LED lighting, installed smart water meters and angle valves to reduce their water consumption or follow guidelines to keep room temperatures at 24 degrees. However, more economic incentives are needed to help poorer households in upgrading to more energy-efficient appliances. Participants also underlined the role of raising awareness and education to foster environmentally friendly mindsets and move towards a more circular economy.

Looking forward, focusing on improving environmental sustainability and building resilience in existing urban areas is crucial, because this is where most Egyptians will live in 2030. As the country moves towards promoting a more balanced system of cities that capitalises on the development opportunities of urban clusters, the participation of citizens will be paramount to its success. 

This blog is based on key messages from the OECD Green Growth Policy Review of Egypt 2024, which examines progress towards sustainable development and green growth over the past decade. The report provides 40 recommendations that aim to help Egypt improve its environmental performance, with a special focus to building climate-smart, resilient and inclusive cities. Find out more: https://oe.cd/ggpr-egypt