This paper assesses how and in what circumstances, fiscal consolidations are affected by monetary conditions,
using data covering 24 OECD countries over the past 25 years, Focusing on fiscal consolidation “episodes”, it is
found that these tend to occur when large budget deficits threaten sustainability and usually when other
macroeconomic indicators -- inflation, the exchange rate and unemployment -- suggest a “crisis” situation. After
controlling for these factors, the paper finds strong econometric evidence that consolidation efforts are more likely to
be pursued and to succeed if the monetary policy stance is eased in the initial stages of the episode, thus contributing
to offsetting the contractionary impact of fiscal tightening. However, the link is far from mechanical and there are
also counter-examples where monetary easing was followed by aborted consolidation efforts. Central bank
independence explicitly precludes direct responses of monetary policy to fiscal actions. However, the paper also
provides evidence that the indirect reaction of monetary policy and financial markets to fiscal consolidation may be
influenced by the quality of fiscal adjustment, as short and long-term interest rates are more likely to fall during
episodes characterised by greater reliance on current expenditure cuts. While this means that causality runs both
ways, the paper provides evidence that, even after controlling for this proxy of fiscal adjustment quality, changes in
monetary stance do affect the chances that a fiscal retrenchment plan will be successfully pursued.
Interactions Between Monetary and Fiscal Policy
How Monetary Conditions Affect Fiscal Consolidation
Working paper
OECD Economics Department Working Papers
Share
Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Abstract
In the same series
-
Working paper20 September 2024
-
5 September 2024
-
5 September 2024
Related publications
-
Working paper20 September 2024
-
5 September 2024