Brazil has made considerable progress in recent years towards consolidating macroeconomic stability, which is a key
framework condition for sustained growth. Monetary policy continues to respond swiftly to changes in the inflation
outlook, anchoring expectations. Fiscal policy has been guided by debt sustainability considerations, delivering
primary budget surpluses that have often exceeded the end-year targets. Nevertheless, while the public debt-to-GDP
has been reduced, it remains high, especially in comparison with other emerging-market economies. Brazil?s
overarching macroeconomic challenge is therefore to continue to reduce the public debt overhang while improving
the quality of fiscal adjustment, which has so far been underpinned by revenue hikes, rather than a retrenchment of
expenditure commitments. To do so, measures will need to be taken to arrest the increase in current spending,
especially on pensions, paving the way for subsequently removing distortions and reducing the tax burden over the
medium to longer term, once the debt-to-GDP ratio has been reduced in a sustainable manner. The favourable
domestic macroeconomic environment, with falling inflation and improving growth prospects, appears propitious for
reform towards the gradual phasing-out of directed credit and a reduction in compulsory reserve requirements.
Consolidating Macroeconomic Adjustment in Brazil
Working paper
OECD Economics Department Working Papers
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