European and global natural gas markets are not yet out of the danger created by Russia’s cuts to pipeline deliveries of gas. If gas exports from Russia drop to zero and China’s LNG imports rebound to 2021 levels, there is a risk of a shortfall gas supplies in 2023. Measures already taken by EU governments on energy efficiency, renewables and heat pumps should help reduce the size of this potential natural gas supply-demand gap in 2023. A recovery in nuclear and hydropower output from their decade-low levels in 2022 should also help narrow the gap. Despite all of this, the EU’s potential gas supply-demand gap could reach 27 billion cubic metres in 2023.

This new report provides the IEA’s latest analysis of the extent of the EU's potential gas supply-demand gap in 2023 and sets out the practical actions that can close that gap while avoiding excessive strains for European consumers and for international markets. The analysis includes real-world examples of measures that could be implemented and quantifies their impacts. The measures offer a pathway to a more secure and balanced EU gas market in 2023 and are consistent with the EU’s climate goals.