After the severe contraction in 2020, GDP is projected to expand by 4.7% in 2021 and 3.5% in 2022. As the vaccination campaign accelerates, uncertainties about the epidemic situation are expected to recede. Along with improved global economic prospects, business investment is set to be unleashed and pent‑up demand is expected to boost household consumption. The recovery should gather pace, with GDP surpassing the pre-crisis level towards mid-2022.
Fiscal policy is expected to remain supportive over the projection period. While temporary measures can be phased out once the recovery is on a solid path, the remaining supportive policies should strictly target viable businesses and jobs until they are finally wound down. The authorities should facilitate the reallocation of resources to those sectors where growth prospects are higher, while fully deploying the recovery plan with its focus on the green and digital transition of the economy.