Skills forecasting in Flanders

Abstract

Flanders, Belgium—

• The Flemish skills forecasting framework guides the development of essential skills intelligence to inform Flemish labour market policy at the regional, sectoral and business level. Mapping future competences underpins regional efforts to better align the supply of training and education with the evolving needs of the Flemish labour market.

• The framework applies an innovative, multilevel approach (macro, meso and micro) to skills forecasting, which targets different groups (citizens, companies, intermediaries, sector organisations, and others), and produces tailored insights that can be used by different target groups and for different purposes.

• As the meso component of the framework, Strategic Skills Forecast (‘SCOPE’) projects, funded by the European Social Fund Plus (ESF+), have established many dynamic partnerships between stakeholders (in the fields of education and training, innovation and business) to carry out tailored skills studies and develop action plans to address local skills needs.

What are the objectives?

The region of Flanders has traditionally experienced a very tight labour market with widespread labour shortages. Skills in high demand across the labour market are changing rapidly and industries, regions and business clusters are struggling to find the necessary (future) skills. These issues highlight the growing importance of a proactive response to current and future transitions in jobs and skills. To navigate economic transformations (green, digital) and leverage the region’s innovative power and resilience, Flanders needs to tackle these skills shortages more than ever.

Training, reskilling and upskilling throughout people’s careers are essential to addressing this challenge. However, an effective response also requires a granular understanding of how and where to target upskilling and reskilling efforts. This is why skills forecasting is essential to steering these efforts. The skills forecasting framework in Flanders consists of three levels:

• Macro level: (future) changes in the labour market are analysed and monitored in order to implement proactive policies accordingly, by generating insights through trends observed at the sector, job and skills level.

• Meso level: Strategic Skills Forecast (‘SCOPE’) projects aim to obtain more specific information about the expected skills and changes in tasks for a specific innovation, region, challenge, sector, cluster, or other category (e.g. battery technology, renovation strategy, food industry, and others).

• Micro level (business level): Competence Checks promote a strategic and proactive human resources (HR) policy within companies, where sufficient attention is given to future skills changes and the implications for workforce development.

How does it work in practice?

The skills forecasting framework in Flanders operates on three distinct levels, each with its own structure and financing arrangements.

At the macro level, the Government of Flanders has commissioned an integrated labour market projection model. This is currently under development by the Centre of Expertise on Labour Market Monitoring (KU Leuven) for implementation by 2026. The model will leverage both quantitative research (data-driven projection models) and qualitative information (e.g. an employer survey and expert group) to deliver important insights into skills requirements in Flanders.

At the meso level, Strategic Skills Forecast (‘SCOPE’) studies are a highly useful tool for mapping changes in jobs and skills and forming flexible partnerships to respond to these changes. SCOPE studies are funded by ESF+, and carried out for a sector, cluster, value chain, specific challenge, region, or innovation. Studies are conducted by a broad partnership of stakeholders, including innovation actors (spearhead clusters, innovative business networks, knowledge institutions), actors in the field of work (the sector federation, sector funds or social funds and companies) and the field of education and training (higher education, universities, VET, PES, etc.). All projects must devote attention to the advance of new technologies, digitalisation, and the transition to a circular and carbon-neutral economy. SCOPE studies are conducted using a designated methodology (‘VLAMT’) and are concluded with an action plan which commits partners to a number of strategies to tackle the identified skills needs.

At the business level, skills forecasts aim to support companies in addressing the skills challenge. Through ‘Competence Checks’ projects supported by ESF+, SMEs can receive tailored support to build on the SCOPE studies, for example, assistance to map out knowledge and skills and test these against the requirements of the labour market. Under these arrangements, partnerships of sectors have been appointed as service providers to guide SMEs. The projects began on 1 January 2023 and will run until the end of December 2024.

What has been the impact?

At the macro level, the skills framework has produced valuable projections at the occupational level (Beroepenprojecties – Steunpunt Werk) and at the sectoral level (Sectorprojecties – Steunpunt Werk).

At the meso level, 27 SCOPE studies have been conducted since 2013. Notably, the ESF+ call for training proposals (“Training for the future”) in 2023, building on the results of SCOPE skills projections (or similar studies), established partnerships that delivered approximately 57 new or adapted training courses in one year. This achievement demonstrates how projections of future skills needs can act as a building block for the development of fit-for-purpose training courses.

In addition to “Training for the future” projects, the results of the SCOPE studies have been employed by other stakeholders to adapt their training courses and education programmes. Sectors also use the results to adapt the occupational qualifications in the (Flemish) Qualification Framework.

While the project ‘Competence Checks’ is still ongoing, the intention and goal of the initiative is to support a total of 622 SMEs by the end of 2024.

What can other communities learn from this example?

The multilevel approach (micro, meso and macro level) has proven to be especially valuable in Flanders. Using three levels of analysis, it is possible to develop more granular information and insights into different target groups (citizens, businesses, intermediaries, sectors, and others) and for different purposes (substantiation of policy choices, adjusting or aligning the education and training offers, HR policy in companies, etc.).

A core strength of the skills forecasting approach in Flanders is the strong emphasis on building partnerships in SCOPE projects (meso level). By fostering broad partnerships with stakeholders in the fields of innovation, learning and business, a strong dynamic is created in the sector/cluster/innovation area. All SCOPE projects are concluded with an action plan, ensuring a shared commitment among stakeholders to (continue to) work with the results of the studies and thus create lasting momentum. In addition, all SCOPE studies have a mandatory focus on the impact of new technologies and digitalisation as well as the transition to a circular and carbon-neutral economy. This generates insights into the impact of these transitions across a wide variety of sectors.

At the same time, there is scope to expand the impact of the skills forecasting framework. In the future, it would be beneficial to work towards a skills observatory that still operates on all three levels but with a more integrated approach, for example with regard to the dissemination of the results of the studies and data. Another important potential improvement would be the use of the same skills language (for example, the language used in the Flemish Qualification Framework).

Further information

• Macro level: Integrated labour market projections (in Dutch)

• Meso level: examples of SCOPE studies in three different sectors

  • A strategic skills forecast in the construction industry

  • ESF Project 7261. Study on Skills Needs in the Drone Industry in Flanders

• Meso level: Video - SCOPE brengt competenties in kaart - Engelse ondertitels (youtube.com)

• Micro level: Competency Check (in Dutch)

OECD resources

OECD (2022), OECD Skills Strategy Implementation Guidance for Flanders, Belgium: The Faces of Learners in Flanders, OECD Skills Studies, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/7887a565-en.

OECD (2019), OECD Skills Strategy Flanders: Assessment and Recommendations, OECD Skills Studies, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264309791-en.