The countries of the Eastern Partnership (EaP) region were hit by a series of political and economic shocks in 2014-15, including the end of the commodity super-cycle, slower growth in China and Western Europe, and the conflict in Ukraine that followed Russia’s seizure of Crimea and its intervention in Eastern Ukraine. Western sanctions and counter-sanctions also hit the EaP countries to varying degrees. Azerbaijan, Belarus, the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine all underwent recessions, while Armenia and Georgia experienced slowdowns. The region as a whole contracted in 2014-15 before starting to recover in 2016 (Figure 4). Although the pace and strength of the recovery varied from one country to another, it gradually gained momentum in 2017-18, supported by more favourable economic conditions and successful macroeconomic stabilisation efforts by some EaP governments. As of mid-2019, EaP countries are continuing to record vibrant economic growth rates, despite some signs of moderation.
The EaP countries remain heavily dependent on Russia, albeit to varying degrees, owing to its importance in regional trade flows. However, EaP trade is steadily diversifying away from Russia; Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, in particular, are redirecting their exports towards the EU. This trend was likely amplified by entering the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) with Moldova and Georgia in July 2016, and with Ukraine in September 2017.
Sustained and more resilient growth will be contingent on a continued supportive regional economic backdrop and efforts to address the structural weaknesses revealed by the economic downturn of 2014-15 – which exposed, in particular, the limited diversification of the EaP economies and their lack of competitiveness in most sectors.
Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) play a significant role in the economies of the six EaP countries, but their potential remains largely untapped. Even though all EaP countries have recognised the importance of improving the business environment for SMEs and are striving to simplify business-related legislation and to provide SMEs with targeted support, they must still do more to improve general level-playing-field conditions –competition, contract enforcement and business integrity. These fundamental pillars of open and fair economies are preconditions for developing a vibrant private sector, ultimately enhancing economic competitiveness and trigger inclusive and sustainable economic growth.