The COVID‑19 pandemic heightened health risks and resulted in widespread job losses, reductions in work hours, and significant income drops as countries went into prolonged economic shutdowns to limit the spread of the virus (OECD, 2020[2]; 2021[3]; 2021[1]). How are people in OECD countries assessing these risks? What issues are weighing most heavily on people’s minds?
Main Findings from the 2020 Risks that Matter Survey
1. Taking the pulse of OECD countries
1.1. Staying healthy and paying the bills: Unpacking short-term risk perceptions
Despite living in some of the wealthiest countries in the world, and with some of the best-developed social protection systems in the world, RTM 2020 respondents feel unsettled about their household’s overall social and economic well-being as they look ahead to 2022.
On average across countries, 66.5% of respondents say they are somewhat or very concerned about their household’s finances and overall social and economic well-being over the next year or two (Figure 1.1). When looking only at individuals whose household reported a job loss during the pandemic (detailed further in Section 1.3), the share of respondents who are somewhat or very concerned about the next two years rises to 80.6%, on average across countries.
Respondents in northern European countries tend to have the highest levels of confidence about their finances, perhaps reflecting long-standing confidence in their national economies, governments and social protection systems. These attitudes may also reflect expansions in social safety nets during the pandemic, as job retention schemes were widely used and governments invested heavily in family, housing, and unemployment support. Yet even in these more optimistic countries, there is a high degree of concern among people whose household experienced job loss.
Women also report feeling more insecure about their household’s finances than men do. This result holds in every country in the sample. On average across countries, women are 5.9 percentage points more likely than men to say that they are concerned or very concerned about their household’s finances and economic and social security. These gender gaps are widest in Turkey, Lithuania and Slovenia, where the difference between men’s and women’s perceptions are around 10 percentage points (Figure 1.2).
It is worth noting this survey presents perspectives from one of the more optimistic moments in the crisis. Risks that Matter ran in 25 countries in September and early October 2020, when most countries were between waves of infection and health and economic data were improving. The third quarter OECD area employment rate was 66.7% – an improvement on the second quarter, when employment had dropped to 64.8%, but still well below 2020’s first quarter employment rate of 68.6%, before the pandemic hit most countries (OECD, 2021[8]).
Figure 1.1. Two-thirds are concerned about their finances and social and economic well-being
Note: Respondents were asked how concerned they were about their household’s finances and overall social and economic well-being in the near future, defined as the next year or two. The response options were “not at all concerned”, “not so concerned”, “somewhat concerned” and “very concerned”. Respondents could also choose “can’t choose” as a response option. “Somewhat concerned” and “very concerned” answer choices are aggregated here “Job loss in household” refers to respondents reporting that either they or any member of their household have/has either “Lost their job or been laid off permanently by their employer” and/or “Lost their self-employed job or their own business”, since the start of the COVID‑19 pandemic.
Source: OECD Secretariat estimates based on the OECD Risks That Matter 2020 survey, https://www.oecd.org/social/risks-that-matter.htm.
Figure 1.2. Women are more concerned about household economic insecurity in every country
Note: Respondents were asked how concerned they were about their household’s finances and overall social and economic well-being in the near future, defined as the next year or two. The response options were “not at all concerned”, “not so concerned”, “somewhat concerned” and “very concerned”. “Somewhat concerned” and “very concerned” answer choices are aggregated here. Results are sorted by self-identified gender.
Source: OECD Secretariat estimates based on the OECD Risks That Matter 2020 survey, https://www.oecd.org/social/risks-that-matter.htm.
This sense of insecurity at the household level also reflects the widely held understanding that national economies had deteriorated from 2019 to 2020 (Figure 1.3). A majority of respondents in every country except Lithuania report that their country’s economic situation had worsened during the pandemic (in Lithuania, 47.9% say it has worsened1). The rate is over 80% in Spain, Portugal, Israel, Austria, Ireland and Chile.
Figure 1.3. Seven out of ten people in OECD countries see a deterioration of their country’s economic situation since 2019
Note: Respondents were asked “Do you think that your country’s economic situation is better than, the same as, or worse than it was 12 months ago?” Answer choices were “much worse,” “worse,” “about the same,” “better”, “much better” and “cannot choose.” The percentages here are an aggregation of the responses “worse” and “much worse.”
Source: OECD Secretariat estimates based on the OECD Risks That Matter 2020 survey, https://www.oecd.org/social/risks-that-matter.htm
When disaggregating risk perceptions across issue areas, RTM respondents are understandably – against the backdrop of the pandemic – very worried about their health (Figure 1.4). 61.2% of respondents, on average across countries, say they are concerned or very concerned about becoming ill or disabled in the next year or two. This is about 7 percentage points higher than the share who listed health as a top-three concern in the 2018 survey, though it should be noted that question wording changed slightly for this and some other questions (see Box 1.2 for a note on comparisons over time). In Chile, Greece, Italy, Mexico, Portugal and Spain, more than 70% of respondents list health as an issue that worries them.
“Health care services for anything other than COVID‑19 have been virtually non-existent [in 2020]. Pregnancy, newborn and pre‑existing health problems have all had treatment cancelled or deferred.”– 33‑year‑old woman, Ireland
Aside from health, financial worries are at the fore. On average across the sample, 54.7% of respondents are somewhat or very concerned about losing a job or self-employment income, and 58.7% are worried about being able to pay all of their expenses and making ends meet.
Long-term care (LTC) for elderly family members is a prominent concern. 56.5% of respondents, across countries, report that they are concerned or very concerned about securing good-quality long-term care for elderly family members. This concern is more widely shared across countries. In no country do fewer than 40% of respondents worry about securing long-term care for elderly family, and it is the most often‑cited concern in Austria and the Netherlands (with 50.1% and 44% citing it, respectively).
The causal mechanism driving this is not clear, but it seems possible that rising concerns about long-term care reflect worries about elderly family members’ well-being during the pandemic. Before the vaccine roll-out, about half of all COVID deaths in OECD countries occurred among residents of LTC institutions (OECD, 2021[9]). Concerns about finding good-quality LTC may also reflect demographic trends and population ageing in places like Greece, Spain and Portugal – countries where over 75% of respondents express concern about long-term care for older family members, and countries which also have relatively large elderly populations vis-à-vis the total population (OECD, 2020[10]). People are also very concerned about caring for elderly relatives in countries like Chile and Mexico, which historically have had relatively low levels of formal LTC support.
Another measure of insecurity comes from the question, “If you (or your partner) lost your (their) job, for roughly how long could you and your family get by before being in serious financial trouble?” 31% of respondents,2 on average across countries, report that they would not last three months before being in serious financial trouble, with rates over 40% in Chile, Greece, Mexico (with the highest share: 56.8%), Poland, Turkey and the United States. When looking only at households that have not experienced any outright job loss during COVID‑19, the cross-national average drops only slightly, to 29.7%.
Economic insecurity is again a prominent concern for women, while health concerns are for men. In ten countries, making ends meet is the risk that the highest share of women state that they are concerned or very concerned about. The risk of illness or disability comes out as the most commonly cited concern among men in 11 countries.
Given widespread school and childcare closures around the world, it is unsurprising that parents are highly worried about accessing good-quality childcare or education for their children. On average, 63.1% of parents (with children under age 12) are concerned or very concerned about accessing good-quality childcare or education, with rates over 70% in Chile, Greece, Spain, Mexico, Turkey, Portugal and Italy. This may reflect deeper issues around responsibilities for unpaid care work during the pandemic, when many formal institutions closed (OECD, forthcoming). Among people without children, and parents of older children, not surprisingly, only 37.2% are worried about accessing good-quality childcare or education for children or young family members.
Different degrees of worry about economic insecurity also arise when disaggregating the sample by income. Lower-income respondents, defined as those in the lowest three (national) income deciles (Figure 1.6), are much more worried about job insecurity and making ends meet than the rest of the sample. On average across countries, 70.1% of respondents in the bottom three national income deciles are worried about expenses and making ends meet, compared to 57.5% of the middle‑income earners and 47.6% in the top three deciles. Making ends meet is the top concern for low-income respondents in 17 countries.
Figure 1.4. People are most concerned about their health and making ends meet
Note: Respondents were asked to rate the risks to themselves or their immediate family from a list of nine risks. Respondents had the option of selecting not at all concerned, not so concerned, somewhat concerned, very concerned or can’t choose. Percentages shown here present the aggregation of “somewhat concerned” and “very concerned” answer choices.
Source: OECD Secretariat estimates based on the OECD Risks That Matter 2020 survey, https://www.oecd.org/social/risks-that-matter.htm.
Box 1.1. About the OECD Risks that Matter survey
The OECD Risks that Matter (RTM) survey is a cross-national survey examining people’s perceptions of the social and economic risks they face and how well they think their government addresses those risks. The survey was conducted for the first time in two waves in the spring and autumn of 2018. The 2020 survey, conducted in September-October 2020, draws on a representative sample of over 25 000 people aged 18 to 64 years old in 25 OECD countries: Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Korea, Lithuania, Mexico, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, Switzerland, Turkey and the United States. Respondents were asked about their social and economic concerns, how well they think government responds to their needs and expectations, and what policies they would like to see in the future.
The aim of the survey is to understand better what citizens want and need from social policy. Standard data sources, such as administrative records and labour force surveys, provide traditional data on issues such as where and how much people work, how much they earn, their health status, whether or not they are in education, and even, in the case of time‑use surveys, how much they sleep and how they choose to spend their free time. These traditional surveys have been invaluable for social policy research and have helped shape social programmes for decades.
Yet these traditional data sources rarely illuminate people’s concerns, perceived vulnerabilities and preferences, especially with regard to government policy. Existing cross-national surveys in this area (such as certain rounds of the International Social Survey Programme or the European Commission’s Eurobarometer survey) are conducted infrequently and/or only in specific regions. The OECD Risks that Matter survey fills this gap – it complements existing data sources by providing comparable OECD-wide information on people’s opinions about risks and social policies.
The survey questionnaire was developed in consultation with OECD member countries. RTM principally covers 1) risk perceptions and the economic challenges facing respondents and their households; 2) satisfaction with social protection and government; and 3) preferences for social protection going forward. The 2020 survey questionnaire has added subsections on experiences during COVID‑19, the future of work, and inequality. Most questions are fixed-response, taking the form of either binary-response or scale‑response. The questionnaire is conducted in national languages.
Consistent with similar surveys, RTM is implemented online using non-probability samples recruited via the internet and over the phone. The survey contractor is Respondi Ltd. Respondents are paid a nominal sum of around one or two euros per survey. Sampling is conducted through quotas, with sex, age group, education level, income level, and employment status (in the last quarter of 2019) used as the sampling criteria. Survey weights are used to correct for any under- or over-representation based on these five criteria. The target and weighted sample is 1 000 respondents per country. While COVID‑19 infection was not used as a quota target, Secretariat analyses show a strong and statistically significant relationship cross-nationally between self-reported COVID‑19 infection rates in RTM and epidemiological data from October 2020.
RTM is overseen by the OECD Employment, Labour and Social Affairs Committee (ELSAC). This oversight includes a regular review process by Delegates and included a technical workshop for Delegates in December 2019. Financial support for the survey was provided by OECD member countries’ voluntary contributions, the OECD Secretariat, and researchers at the University of Lausanne and the University of Konstanz.
Figure 1.5. Financial security is women’s most-often cited concern in many countries, while health is for men
Note: Respondents were asked to rate the risks to themselves or their immediate family from a list of nine risks (listed in Figure 1.4). Respondents had the option of selecting not at all concerned, not so concerned, somewhat concerned, very concerned or can’t choose. Percentages shown here present the aggregation of “somewhat concerned” and “very concerned” answer choices, sorted by the most-cited concern in each country and by gender.
Source: OECD Secretariat estimates based on the OECD Risks That Matter 2020 survey, https://www.oecd.org/social/risks-that-matter.htm
Figure 1.6. Low-income respondents are very worried about making ends meet
Note: Respondents were asked to rate the risks to themselves or their immediate family from a list of nine risks (listed in Figure 1.4). Respondents had the option of selecting not at all concerned, not so concerned, somewhat concerned, very concerned or can’t choose. Percentages shown here present the aggregation of “somewhat concerned” and “very concerned” answer choices, sorted by the most-cited concern in each country and by income grouping. Respondents from “low income” households are defined as those in households with disposable (equivalised) incomes in the bottom three deciles of the national disposable income distribution (latest year available), respondents from “middle income” households are defined as those in households with disposable (equivalised) incomes in the middle four deciles of the national disposable income distribution (latest year available), and respondents from “high income” households those with disposable (equivalised) incomes in the top three deciles of the national disposable income distribution.
Source: OECD Secretariat estimates based on the OECD Risks That Matter 2020 survey, https://www.oecd.org/social/risks-that-matter.htm
1.2. Retirement, health and long-term care dominate long-term perspectives
In the long run – beyond the next decade – risk perceptions are focused on health and financial outcomes. 73.1% of respondents say that they are somewhat or very concerned about not being in good health, on average across countries (Figure 1.7). This prioritisation is not dramatically different from results in RTM 2018, perhaps because worries about health problems in the long run should be a fairly constant concern over time.
Pensions remain a major concern, as well. 71.9% of respondents are somewhat or very concerned about financial security in old age, with rates over 80% in Chile (89.6%), Greece (88.3%), Mexico (86.6%), Portugal (88.3%) and Spain (87.9%). Worries about financial security in old age are lowest in northern Europe, with rates below 60% in Denmark (48.3%), Finland (57%), the Netherlands (53.8%) and Norway (55.3%) – although it is worth nothing that these are still sizeable shares of the population.
“The social risk for many [during the pandemic] is loneliness. The economic risk is the disappearance of the self-employed middle class. This is where the government must continue to invest in people like self-employed workers and artists, so that they can continue to survive.”– 62‑year‑old man, Belgium
Figure 1.7. Falling ill, financial security in old age and long-term care are top worries in the long run
Note: Respondents were asked to rate the risks to themselves or their immediate family from a list of nine risks. Respondents had the option of selecting not at all concerned, not so concerned, somewhat concerned, very concerned or can’t choose. Percentages shown here present the aggregation of “somewhat concerned” and “very concerned” answer choices.
Source: OECD Secretariat estimates based on the OECD Risks That Matter 2020 survey, https://www.oecd.org/social/risks-that-matter.htm.
Long-term care is again a major source of concern when respondents look beyond the next decade. 64.5% of respondents say they worry about not being able to access good-quality long-term care for themselves, and 64.4% worry about accessing good-quality long-term care for an elderly family member. This is also one of the issues where people are least satisfied with public programmes and income support in the event that a family member needs to stop working to provide long-term care (Chapter 3).
Box 1.2. A note on comparisons between RTM 2018 and RTM 2020
Changes in results between the 2018 and 2020 RTM waves should be interpreted with caution, as there are important differences in the questionnaire and sampling across the two waves. Some of the question wording changed between survey waves. In the section on risk perceptions, for instance, respondents in 2018 were asked to identify and rank the top three risks that they face from a list of choices. In 2020, respondents were asked to rate their degree of concern about every listed issue on a Likert scale. It is therefore difficult to make straightforward comparisons for these questions, but in general there are strong correlations in country ordering over time for top risks and there are few dramatic shifts for other repeat questions.
The Risks that Matter survey also uses a cross-sectional sample of respondents that do not repeat over time. The change in sample implies some observable differences between sample respondents. One difference between the samples, for example, is that the upper age bound in 2018 was 70 years old, whereas the upper age bound in 2020 is 64 years old.3 Another major difference is the inclusion of four additional countries that were not enrolled in the 2018 study: Korea, Spain, Switzerland and Turkey.
1.3. Risk perceptions are well founded
Respondents’ worries about financial security are well founded.
Households in OECD countries have experienced a high degree of economic insecurity during COVID‑19.4 On average across countries, 11.8% of respondents to RTM 2020 worldwide report that either they or a household member have lost a job or lost their own business since the start of the crisis, with rates over 20% in Chile, Mexico and Turkey (Figure 1.8).
However, outright job loss represents only a small portion of the total economic disruption experienced by households. More than one‑third (37.3%) of all respondents to RTM 2020 say that either they or a household member have experienced at least one job-related disruption in the form of a job loss, a job lay-off, the use of a job-retention scheme, a working hours reduction, and/or a pay cut, on average, across countries. When (paid or unpaid) leave‑takings and resignations are included, a total of 44.2% of respondents have experienced some kind of job-related disruption in their household during the pandemic (OECD, 2021[1]).
Youths (aged 18 to 29), parents with children under age 18 in the house, and lower-income workers report experiencing more job disruptions than other groups and have high levels of financial insecurity (OECD, 2021[1]; 2021[11]),
Employment figures are best derived from traditional, regular labour force surveys (LFS) and administrative data like tax records. RTM cannot be directly compared with LFS results for a few reasons. One issue is that RTM asks about job loss in the household, rather than simply the respondent. RTM also asks a retrospective question that covers having experienced disruptions over a period of several months, from March to October 2020, which does not track with any traditional LFS figures (e.g. a monthly or quarterly unemployment rate). RTM is fundamentally a survey on perceptions, and the background questions on job disruption are intended to help present a snapshot of what was happening in households during the pandemic. This picture reveals that RTM 2020 respondents are showing a high degree of financial stress – a picture that is consistent with other, more traditional data sources (OECD, 2020[2]; 2021[8]).
Figure 1.8. Almost half of all households have suffered some form of job-related disruption
Note: Respondents were asked whether, at any time since the start of the COVID‑19 pandemic, they (or any member of their household) had experienced one or more of a range of specific employment-related events. The options were: lost job, lost self-employed job, or lost own business; laid off temporarily or place on a job retention scheme; had working hours reduced or place on a part-time job retention scheme; had pay reduced by employer or lost income form self-employed job or own business; took leave from work (paid or unpaid); resigned from job. Respondents could select all the options that applied. Percentages present the share of respondents who selected at least one.
Source: OECD Secretariat estimates based on the OECD Risks That Matter 2020 survey, https://www.oecd.org/social/risks-that-matter.htm
These job losses, cuts in work hours and pay, placements on job retention schemes, and leave‑takings have, in turn, made it harder for many households to pay even their usual bills.
Close to one‑third of all respondents (31%) report that they or their household experienced at least one of the following financial difficulties since the start of the pandemic (Figure 1.9):
failed to pay a usual expense;
took money out of savings or sold assets to pay for usual expense;
took money from family or friends to pay for a usual expense;
took on additional debt or used credit to pay for usual expenses;
asked a charity or non-profit organisation for assistance because they could not afford to pay;
went hungry because they could not afford to pay for food;
lost their home because they could not afford the mortgage or rent;
declared bankruptcy or asked a credit provider for help.
For a disaggregation of the frequency of these financial difficulties by country, please see Annex Table 1Annex Table 1.
Among those respondents whose household experienced job loss during COVID, the share who had financial difficulty jumps to 67.7%, on average, across countries.
These national averages correspond with rates found in other surveys carried out during COVID‑19, even if questions differ slightly (see, for example, surveys of European Union countries and the United States (European Parliament / Eurobarometer, 2020[12]; Carman and Nataraj, 2020[13]).
Figure 1.9. Almost one‑third of respondents report financial difficulties since the start of the crisis
Note: Respondents were asked whether, at any time since the start of the COVID‑19 pandemic, they (or their household) had experienced one or more of a range of specific finance‑related events: failed to pay a usual expense, took money out of savings or sold assets to pay for a usual expense, took money from family or friends to pay for a usual expense, took on additional debt or used credit to pay for a usual expense, asked a charity or non-profit organisation for assistance because they could not afford to pay, went hungry because they could not afford to pay for food, lost their home because they could not afford the mortgage or rent, or declared bankruptcy or asked a credit provider for help. Respondents could select all the options that applied; percentages present the share of respondents who selected at least one. “Job loss in household” refers to respondents reporting that either they or any member of their household have/has either “Lost their job or been laid off permanently by their employer” and/or “Lost their self-employed job or their own business”, since the start of the COVID‑19 pandemic. Note that the majority of households without outright job loss nevertheless had some other type of job disruption.
Source: OECD Secretariat estimates based on the OECD Risks That Matter 2020 survey, https://www.oecd.org/social/risks-that-matter.htm
The degree of economic hardship varies across countries. Respondents in wealthier countries and those with historically higher levels of spending on social programmes reveal less financial stress (Figure 1.10). Among the 25 surveyed countries, those that have higher levels of GDP per capita (Figure 1.10, Panel A) and those that historically spent more on social programmes (Figure 1.10, Panel B) tend also to have fewer respondents reporting financial difficulties in the household since the start of the COVID‑19.
These associations are driven in part by the high reported levels of financial stress in Chile, Mexico and Turkey – all countries with lower levels of social spending and GDP per capita, compared to the OECD average. These are also the countries with the highest levels of labour market informality in the OECD, meaning that many workers are excluded from contributory social protection schemes. But even if these three countries are discounted, reported financial stress is higher where pre‑crisis GDP per capita and pre‑crisis public social spending were lower.
Figure 1.10. Financial difficulties less common in richer countries and those with larger social safety nets
Note: Respondents were asked whether, at any time since the start of the COVID‑19 pandemic, they (or their household) had experienced one or more of a range of specific finance‑related events. Respondents could select all the options that applied. Data on GDP per capita refer to 2019. Data on total public social expenditure per head refer to 2017, except for Switzerland (2016).
Source: OECD Secretariat estimates based on the OECD Risks That Matter 2020 survey, https://www.oecd.org/social/risks-that-matter.htm, OECD National Accounts, http://www.oecd.org/sdd/na/, and the OECD Social Expenditure Database, https://www.oecd.org/social/expenditure.htm.
Notes
← 1. This popular confidence is not misplaced: Lithuania is projected to have one of the fastest returns to pre‑pandemic per capita GDP (OECD, 2021[22]).
← 2. Respondents with neither partner employed at the time of the interview are excluded from this estimate.
← 3. This was intended to prevent an over-representation of 65‑ to 70‑year‑olds within the sample of non-employed people (and therefore an under-representation of working age non-employed people).
← 4. These findings are detailed further in the report “The Long Reach of COVID‑19” (OECD, 2021[1]).