The main challenges to Emerging Asia’s growth momentum include prolonged global economic slowdown leading to weak external demand, persistent inflationary pressures, geopolitical risks, climate change and natural disasters. A major risk to the region’s growth is the economic slowdown in advanced economies, which is causing a decline in demand for export goods from Emerging Asia. While the global supply-chain reconfiguration will benefit most Emerging Asian economies in the long term, the looming near-term impact on China’s exports sector will resonate across the region. Meanwhile, the region’s financial and currency markets remain vulnerable to imminent interest rate hikes in the United States and European Union. Inflation rates have moderated globally, driven primarily by declines in commodity prices and improved supply chains. However, core inflation figures are projected to remain elevated, underpinned by the rapid growth of services prices. Given the region’s robust growth in private consumption and the rapid rise of the services sector, elevated core inflation will likely persist. Finally, the impact of El Niño is expected to affect different sectors and components of the economy, including agriculture, trade, commodity prices, energy and water resources. The extent of the economic impact on each country will depend on geographical location, policy responses to climate change and capacity to mitigate and adapt to the repercussions of El Niño.
Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2023 - Update
Resilience Under Uncertainty
Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India
