The use of plastics is strongly linked to economic growth and other socio-economic factors. This chapter explores these trends in the use of plastics to 2060 through the Baseline projection, which assumes that no new policies are implemented. It looks at how plastics use will evolve in the coming decades globally, as well as by region, economic application and polymer. It explores the main drivers of the increases in plastics use, such as rising incomes and populations, and technological change. The chapter also explores alternative baseline scenarios, including changes in oil prices and a slower-than-expected economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Global Plastics Outlook
Policy Scenarios to 2060
3. Plastics use projections to 2060
Abstract
Key messages
In the Baseline scenario, global plastics use is projected to triple between 2019 and 2060, from 460 million tonnes (Mt) to 1 321 Mt, mainly driven by economic growth. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic and its response measures led to a decline in economic activity that put downward pressure on plastics use. By 2060, plastics use is projected to be lower than the pre-COVID projection by 2% or 4% depending on the speed of recovery from the pandemic.
Thanks to changes in production technologies and, to a lesser extent, changes in the structure of the economy, the global average amount of plastic used to produce 1 USD of GDP is projected to fall by 16% between 2019 and 2060, implying a relative decoupling of plastics use and GDP. Nevertheless, plastics grows faster than other materials, with the exception of wood and timber.
While plastics use is projected to increase in all regions, it grows fastest in Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. Driven by strong economic and population growth, in Sub-Saharan Africa, plastics use in 2060 is projected to be over six times larger than in 2019. The strong economic growth in India also leads to a more than five-fold increase in plastics use. Furthermore, in India and other fast-growing Asian economies plastics use grows as output increases in sectors that rely on plastics use, such as the production of motor vehicles and business services. Despite this increase in non-OECD countries, plastics use per person remains higher in OECD countries.
Plastics use is projected to increase for all applications, but the strongest growth is projected to occur in transportation, construction and packaging, which together make up 60% of total plastics use. Consequently, while plastics use increases for all polymers, the most substantial increases will be in polymers that are used for these applications, such as PET (polyethylene terephthalate) and PE (polyethylene), used for packaging.
Current policies are insufficient to shift production substantially from primary to secondary or recycled plastics. Nonetheless, secondary plastics grow faster than primary plastics. Their share in overall plastics production is projected to double from 6% to 12% by 2060, indicating a limited but not insignificant increase in the circularity of the economy, even without new policies.
3.1. Plastics use is projected to almost triple by 2060
3.1.1. Economic growth is the main driver of plastics use
Global plastics use is projected to almost triple between 2019 and 2060 in the Baseline scenario, increasing from 460 million tonnes (Mt) to 1 231 Mt yearly (Figure 3.1). In this scenario, continued socioeconomic developments and economic growth, including recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic (Chapter 2), see emerging and developing economies catch up with higher income countries.
The projected increase in plastics use is mostly driven by economic growth: more economic activity means more use of plastics, in production and consumption. With global GDP more than tripling between 2019 and 2060, this effect is very strong. While rising income levels lead to a rapid increase in plastics use (to 898 Mt in 2060, shown by the green bar in Figure 3.1), other socio-economic factors also increase the use of plastics. Population growth also leads to an increase in plastics use (light grey bar; +76 Mt). However, its effect is limited because per-capita plastics use is relatively low in the regions with the fastest population growth, most notably Sub-Saharan Africa (see Section 3.2.2). This growth in plastics use will be moderated by changes in the structure of the economy, most notably a shift towards services (purple bar; -66 Mt), and the use of more efficient technologies in production processes (dark grey bar; -136 Mt), which lower the amount of plastics used per dollar of output of plastic-using commodities.
Figure 3.1. Plastics use is projected to almost triple, mostly driven by economic growth
Notes:
Population growth represents a projection in which plastics use is assumed to grow at the same speed as population and in which the regional plastics use per capita stays constant at 2019 levels.
Economic growth represents a counterfactual projection in which plastics use is assumed to grow at the same speed as GDP and in which the regional plastics intensity (the amount of plastic per unit of output) stays constant at 2019 levels.
Structural change identifies the contribution of sectoral shifts to reducing global plastics use by differentiating sectoral growth rates.
Technology change identifies the contribution of technology improvements to reducing global plastics use by differentiating growth rates of plastic inputs to sectoral output. Technology change not only includes technological improvements but also a wider diffusion of existing technologies.
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
3.1.2. Plastics use increases in all regions, but especially Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia
While plastics use is projected to increase in all regions, the regional contribution to global plastics use has changed enormously over the last century and is projected to continue changing to 2060 (Figure 3.2).
In 1980, OECD countries together accounted for 87% of global plastics use, while Middle East and North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa (“Other Africa”)1 together accounted for 5%; fast-growing emerging economies in Asia (The People’s Republic of China, India and “Other Asia”) accounted for only 1% of global plastics use. In 2019, OECD and non-OECD countries contributed almost equally to global plastics use, with the OECD accounting for 46%. China, India and other fast-growing emerging economies in Asia accounted for 35% of global plastics use (China accounting for 20% and India 6%).
Between 2019 and 2060, non-OECD countries are projected to triple their plastics use and, by 2060, will account for 64% of global plastics use. Non-OECD countries in Asia alone will account for 41% of global plastics use in 2060. China remains the region with the highest share in global plastics use, even though its share slightly declines to 17% as the growth in plastics use in the country is lower than the global average growth in plastics use. Plastics use in India is projected to be more than five times larger in 2060 compared to 2019, with its share in global plastics increasing to 13%. Similarly, plastics use increases substantially in other emerging economies in Asia (Other non-OECD Asia). The largest increase in plastics use takes place in Sub-Saharan Africa, where plastics use is more than six times larger in 2060 compared to 2019. Strong population growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, combined with significant income growth (see Chapter 2), contributes to the projected rapid increase of plastics use in that region.
While their share of global plastics use declines, plastics use is projected to double in OECD countries, as well as in the non-OECD regions not mentioned above, which include Latin American and Eurasian countries. In these regions, moderate growth in income and low population growth, combined with minor structural change, limits the growth of plastics use.
Figure 3.2. Plastics use will grow fastest in developing and emerging economies in Africa and Asia
Note: The numbers on the right-handside of the graph indicate the growth of plastics use from 2019 (dashed line) to 2060 for each region (e.g. x2 means a doubling of plastics use). Please see Table A A.2 in Annex A for more details on the regional aggregation of the ENV-Linkages model.
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
3.1.3. Packaging and transport will drive a large share of the increase in plastics use
Understanding changes in plastics use by application is key to understanding changes in the demand for the different polymers. The ENV-Linkages model maps plastics use by polymer and application to the model sectors.2 For instance, as PVC (polyvinyl chloride) is mostly used for construction applications, it is linked to the construction sector in the model, while PP (polypropylene) is used for packaging, amongst other applications, and is linked to several sectors, including food products and business services. In general, polymers are used for multiple applications, and applications are also linked to multiple economic sectors, unless they are highly specialised, such as in construction.
Together, packaging, construction and vehicles (which include vehicles for all transport sectors as well as other transport equipment, and marine coatings linked to the production and maintenance of ships) currently account for more than 60% of total plastics use (Figure 3.3, Panel A). By 2060, plastics use is projected to increase for all applications, following increases in production levels across the economy (Figure 3.3, Panel B). Plastics use for the production of vehicles increases most, reflecting a rising demand for transport equipment as economies develop (see Section 3.2.3). Increasing digitalisation and electrification also sees plastics use increase for electrical and electronic products.
While the services sectors have a relatively low plastics intensity (the amount of plastic per unit of output), the servitisation of economies will mean that the services sector will account for the largest share of plastics use. This is reflected in the increase of plastic products frequently used in service sectors, such as packaging and consumer products (e.g. takeaway food containers, health care and medical products, art supplies, credit cards and luggage). The increase in plastics use for packaging shows that policies currently in place are not sufficient to offset the increase in plastics use by key sectors that rely on packaging, including business services, food products and trade.
Plastics use also increases for other applications although to a lesser extent. Plastics use for clothes increases, following an increase in output from the textile sector in non-OECD countries (see Section 3.2.3). Plastics use in construction increases especially in developing and emerging economies as construction activities are linked to investment in infrastructure, which is an essential part of economic development (OECD, 2019[1]). Finally, plastics use for industrial applications and machinery (included in “Other”) grows less than other applications thanks to structural shifts away from industry and the continued reliance on steel and other metals by these industries.
Figure 3.3. Plastics use in the transport sector will grow the most by 2060
Note: The applications for personal protective equipment linked to COVID-19, and personal care products, are omitted from the graph as the quantity of plastics they use is too small for the calculation to be meaningful.
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
Plastics use is also projected to increase for all polymers (Figure 3.4), as inputs for the different applications also increase. The links between the different polymers and applications is quite intricate, as the same polymers can be used in different ways in various applications, and some polymers actually represent a wide range of different plastics that are grouped in one category because they share certain characteristics. By 2060, there is projected to be a substantial increase in the use of polymers for packaging. Notably, low-density polyethylene (LDPE, and including linear low-density polyethylene or LLDPE) used in packaging triples compared to 2019; while polypropylene (PP), high density polyethylene (HDPE) and polyethylene terephthalate (PET), all used in packaging, more than double. Polyvinyl chloride (PVC), which is used in construction, increases by 2.6 times. Likewise, fibres, which are used for textiles, are projected to triple. The use of polymers for the production of vehicles, and especially PP, is also projected to increase substantially.
Figure 3.4. The use of all polymers will increase to 2060
Notes:
HDPE = high-density polyethylene; LDPE = low-density polyethylene; LLDPE = linear low-density polyethylene; PET = polyethylene terephthalate; PP = polypropylene; PS = polystyrene; PUR = polyurethane; PVC = polyvinyl chloride; SA stands for ABS, ASA, SAN, where ABS = acrylonitrile butadiene styrene; ASA = acrylonitrile styrene acrylate; SAN = styrene acrylonitrile.
The figure does not include the application personal protective equipment (face masks and other protection linked to the COVID-19 pandemic) as its use was negligible in 2019.
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
3.1.4. Fossil-based non-recycled plastics will continue to dominate in 2060
The ENV-Linkages model splits plastics production and use into primary plastics and secondary plastics (plastics made from recycled materials). Primary plastics include both fossil-based and biobased plastics, which are a rather small group of plastics with similar characteristics to fossil-based plastics, but are derived from biomass such as corn, sugarcane, wheat or residues from other processes. The estimates for secondary plastics are based on available data on plastics labelled for recycling (i.e. that have labels indicating that they can be recycled). They also take into account losses in the process, such as when plastics are collected for recycling, but cannot be recycled.3
In the Baseline scenario, the growth in global output of primary and secondary plastics production is similar, with secondary plastics production growing slightly faster than primary. The share of secondary plastics, a key indicator of circularity, is projected to double from 6% to 12% between 2019 and 2060 (Figure 3.5). Secondary plastics use can be boosted in two ways. First, increases in recycling can boost the availability of scrap material for use in secondary plastics production. This supply push effect will be explored in Chapter 4. Second, on the demand side, there is a pull effect from increased demand for plastics as well as increased production costs for primary plastics. The Baseline scenario assumes no new policies are introduced to incentivize a shift away from primary plastics, and thus this lever is not very strong. Nonetheless, the share of secondary plastics increases even in the absence of stronger policies, as more scrap becomes available keeping production costs for secondary plastics relatively low so that secondary production can compete better with primary production. The increase is, however, not nearly enough to overcome the strong increase in total plastics demand, leading to a significant increase in primary plastics production.
Figure 3.5. Primary plastics will still make up the lion’s share of production in 2060
Note: 2019 (dashed line).
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
Due to the increasing use of plastics, biobased plastics production is also projected to increase in the Baseline scenario, but at a slower rate than total plastics production, and its share remains marginal (at around 0.5% in 2060). The environmental consequences of the growth in bioplastics use are not straightforward to calculate. While the production of biobased plastics is less carbon-intensive than fossil-based plastics, the production of biobased plastics relies on crops, which need extensive land. An increase in demand for biobased plastics could increase the area of cropland needed, potentially driving forest conversion and consequent emission increases (see Chapter 6).
Since fossil fuels are still the main source of plastics, the roles of the energy mix and fossil prices in the Baseline scenario are relevant. The Baseline projections are based on the energy mix outlined in the current policies (“CPS”) scenario of the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook (IEA, 2018[2]). In the ENV-Linkages Baseline scenario, the price of oil is projected to more than double between 2019 and 2060. However, plastics use projections would only change slightly in a scenario with higher or lower oil price profile, partly due to the changes in production prices, but also due to changes in consumption (Box 3.1).
Besides the substitution across different types of plastics, plastics can also be replaced by other materials, depending on the sector and product. For instance, paper and wood are increasingly used for single-use products such as plastic plates, or to turn single-use products in reusable products, as done for instance for reusable water bottles made of metal, which replace single-use plastic ones. However, alternatives to plastics are do not easily available for all product yet. For instance, it will be more difficult to find substitutes for plastics in the production of electronics, where the only current option is to make plastics based on algae. Unfortunately, there is not enough information or data available to create projections to 2060 for these types of alternatives. However, the ENV-Linkages modelling framework takes into account how various materials grow in response to changes in product prices and demand. In the Baseline scenario, plastics use is projected to grow faster than most other materials (Box 3.2), highlighting the fact that the economy is increasingly relying on plastics.
Box 3.1. Fossil fuel prices show little impact on plastics use in the long run
Oil and gas are the main raw materials used as feedstock for plastics. For instance, Plastics Europe (2005[3]) estimates that for the production of 1 kilogram of PET bottles, 750 grams of oil and 670 grams of gas are needed. In this context, an uncertainty analysis is used to understand the impact of fossil fuel prices on plastics use and prices and therefore the robustness of the projections of plastics use presented in this report. Figure 3.6 illustrates the impacts of alternative time profiles of oil and gas prices (ranging to an increase or decrease of 15%) on GDP and on the use and price of plastics.1
The changes in plastics use then follow the change in overall economic activity caused by the fuel price variations: if plastics become more expensive, their use decreases. Despite fossil fuels being the main natural resource in the production of plastics, changes in fuel prices have a limited effect on plastics use and prices: plastics use changes by less than 2% and the price of plastics by less than 1%. This limited effect, which might appear counterintuitive, is because fossil feedstock is only one input in the production of plastics, which relies largely on labour and capital inputs, as well as chemical products.
The impacts on secondary plastics are lower than on primary plastics as the production of fossil-based primary plastics relies directly on oil and gas inputs. Nonetheless, as primary and secondary plastics compete in the same market, there is only limited room for secondary plastics to deviate as secondary plastics producers are price takers in the plastics market.
Figure 3.6. Changes in fossil fuel prices have little impact on plastics production in the long run
Note: The horizontal axis shows the magnitude of the shock on oil and gas prices compared to the Baseline scenario.
1 In the alternative oil prices scenarios, a shock to oil prices is modelled as a change in the price of natural resources.
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
Box 3.2. Plastics grows more than most raw materials
The growth in plastics use can be compared to that of other raw materials used in the economy using the methodology developed in the OECD’s Global Material Resources Outlook to 2060 (2019[1]). The growth rates of materials depend on which economic process they are linked to. The growth in plastics use is projected to outpace all other materials apart from wood and timber (Figure 3.7), which are linked to both industrial activities and construction.
Figure 3.7. Plastics use outpaces most other raw materials in the Baseline scenario
Note: The results presented here differ from OECD (2019[1]), Global Material Resources Outlook to 2060, as the Baseline scenario includes the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
3.2. The drivers of plastics use vary by region
3.2.1. Population growth and structural and technology changes drive plastics use in some regions
The effects of the four socio-economic drivers of plastics (presented in Figure 3.1) vary by region (Figure 3.8), depending on the characteristics of their economies and the projected regional socio-economic developments (Chapter 2). The large differences in the drivers of plastics use across regions highlight the need to tailor policy action to reduce the environmental impacts of plastics to the specific characteristics of the regional economies.
Economic growth is the main driver of plastics use and leads to an increase in plastics use in all regions. The same does not apply to population growth. In most regions, population growth reflects only a minor share of the total increase in plastics use. This effect is large in Sub-Saharan Africa (Other Africa), which is the region with fastest population growth (see Section 3.2.2). However, in regions with declining populations, which include many Eastern European countries (part of Other EU), Japan, Korea (both part of OECD Asia), and China, demographic changes limit the growth in plastics use.
The effects of structural change also vary by region. In most regions, structural change helps to limit the growth in plastics use. Plastics are used widely in agriculture, industry and services (although the polymers differ). In contrast to the impact on climate change and air pollution, a trend towards servitisation does not automatically imply that plastics use is reduced. Rather, it depends on the specific economic structure of the economy (see Section 3.2.3). Structural change has the strongest effect in China, where the economy is undergoing a process of servitisation and moving towards less material-intensive sectors. In some regions, notably OECD Non-EU countries (which include Turkey and Norway, among other countries), Other EU (which includes some Eastern European countries such as Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania), Eurasia (which includes the Russian Federation) and Sub-Saharan Africa, structural change can drive an increase in plastics use. In these regions, economic development leads to an increase in sectors that rely on plastics inputs, thus leading to an increase in plastics use. While the effect of technology changes limits the increase in plastics use in all regions, this effect is largest in the regions for which structural changes drive plastics use. Therefore, in these regions, economic development leads to the adoption of improved technologies that decrease plastic intensity, but also to an increase in production in more plastic-intensive sectors.
Figure 3.8. The drivers of plastics use vary by region
Notes:
The sum of the 4 effects sum up to 100%.
Population growth represents a projection in which plastics use is assumed to grow at the same speed as population and in which the regional plastics use per capita stays constant at 2019 levels.
Economic growth represents a counterfactual projection in which plastics use is assumed to grow at the same speed as GDP and in which the regional plastics intensity (the amount of plastic per unit of output) stays constant at 2019 levels.
Structural change identifies the contribution of sectoral shifts to reducing global plastics use by differentiating sectoral growth rates.
Technology change identifies the contribution of technology improvements to reducing global plastics use by differentiating growth rates of plastic inputs to sectoral output. Technology change not only includes technological improvements but also a wider diffusion of existing technologies.
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
3.2.2. Population and income changes imply limited convergence in plastics use per capita across regions
The effects of population growth on plastics use reflect the projected changes in population from 2019 to 2060 (Figure 3.9). Among all regions, Sub-Saharan Africa (Other Africa) stands out as the region in which population growth drives plastics use the most. Indeed, this is the region with the strongest increase in population (Chapter 2). In the other regions, the growth in plastics use is much stronger than the growth in population, leading to a significant increase in plastics use per capita.
Figure 3.9. Population strongly drives plastics use in Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
Despite economic growth, the strong increase in population growth in Sub-Saharan Africa also implies that, by 2060 this region will still have the lowest levels of plastics use per person (Figure 3.10). On average, plastics use per capita in OECD countries is projected to remain higher than in non-OECD countries. While non-OECD countries are projected to see their plastics use per capita more than Between 2019 and 2060, non-OECD countriesdouble between 2019 and 2060, their projected 2060 levels remain lower than 2019 OECD levels. Thus, there is only very limited convergence in plastics use per capita between OECD and non-OECD countries.
Figure 3.10. Regional income levels drive per-capita plastics use
Note: The numbers on the right hand side of the graph indicate the growth of per-capita plastics use from 2019 to 2060 for each region (e.g. x2 means a doubling of plastics use).
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
3.2.3. Changes in plastic intensity depend on structural and technological changes
Despite the growth in plastics use, the global plastics intensity -– i.e. the amount of plastics use needed to produce a dollar of GDP –- is projected to fall by 16% between 2019 and 2060.This effect is the result of changes in regional and sectoral production levels as well as increased efficiency in production. The plastic intensity of regional economies depends on changes in the structure of the economy, which determines whether output grows in more or less plastic-intensive sectors; and on changes in production technologies, which influence the plastic intensity of each sector.
Projected changes in technologies imply that plastic intensity decreases in most sectors by 2060 in both OECD and non-OECD countries (Figure 3.11). There are a few exceptions, such as food products in OECD countries, which rely on plastics for packaging, as well as construction in OECD countries, where plastics are increasingly used. Plastic intensity also increases or remains unchanged in some industrial sectors in non-OECD countries (e.g. Other manufacturing). This largely reflects a shift within the sector towards specific commodities that use more plastics, rather than a decline in production efficiency.
Structural change in both OECD and non-OECD countries implies a stronger reliance on services sectors (Figure 3.11). These include government service sectors with very low plastic intensity, such as education and healthcare (Other services), but also services which rely on plastics even limitedly. This is the case for business services, a category which includes trade services that rely heavily on packaging. While business services have relatively low plastic intensity, servitisation implies a large output growth, especially in non-OECD countries (+300%). This effect partly drives the increase in packaging plastics outlined in Section 3.1.3.
Rising living standards and industrialisation in non-OECD countries, and most notably Sub-Saharan African countries, will drive a strong increase in the intensity of plastics use, as consumption leads to strong demand for plastics for construction and (semi-)durables (such as cars or appliances). This effect is particularly evident for transport: as economies grow, they also rely more heavily on transport services and on the use of motor vehicles (Box 3.3). The production of motor vehicles is plastic intensive, especially in non-OECD countries. Hence, the increase in in the share of this sector in the economy also leads to an increase in economy-wide plastic intensity.
Plastic intensity is projected to decline in the textile sector, which relies on the use of fibres.4 However, while the sector is projected to grow less than the economy average in OECD countries, it is projected to have a large growth in non-OECD countries, thereby also driving the increased use of fibres for used in the production of clothes at the global level.
Figure 3.11. Output growth is fast in some sectors that rely on plastics
Note: sorted by plastic intensity in 2019 in OECD countries.
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
Box 3.3. The increasing use of transport in developing economies affects plastics use
The production of motor vehicles is one of the most plastic intensive sectors. In non-OECD countries, almost 15 grams of plastics were used for each dollar of output in this sector in 2019. In OECD countries, plastics use per unit of output is lower (6 grams/USD) and represents on average a much smaller share of total value of a motor vehicle. This is a typical example of where product quality affects plastics intensity: cars manufactured in OECD countries are on balance at the higher end of the market and thus sell for a higher price than cars that use the same amount of plastics but as they are less luxurious they sell at a lower price.
Moreover, the motor vehicle production sector is projected to grow faster than other sectors, especially in non-OECD countries where it grows by almost 300% between 2019 and 2060. The main reason behind this is the relationship between economic growth and the use of motor vehicles.
The link between increasing income and use and ownership of motor vehicles depends on the level of income. The link is weak or non-existent in countries at very early stages of development, when incomes are too low to purchase a motor vehicle. In high-income countries, changes in income also have limited impact on the use of motor vehicles (Dargay and Gately, 1999[4]), since car ownership is already spread following a progressive saturation of the market. However, car replacement and gasoline prices do affect the use of motor vehicles more than income levels in these countries (Dargay, Madre and Berri, 2000[5]).
For intermediate income levels, changes in income are strongly correlated with car ownership (Dargay and Gately, 1999[4]). Therefore, countries and regions that move from low to middle-income and from middle to high-income are those where the production of motor vehicles grows the most, thus driving plastics use.
3.3. COVID-19 affects plastics use in both the short and long run
The COVID-19 pandemic and associated response measures have affected short-run sectoral output, with a large decrease in economic activity in 2020 and a projected gradual recovery in the coming years (see Chapter 2). The short-term consequences for plastics use are mixed. Some plastics have been used more for specific applications, most notably masks and other personal protective equipment. In response to a shift from in-store shopping to online retail and from restaurant eating to take-away, there has also been a decline in production activities that use plastics, such as construction and motor vehicles manufacturing. On balance, the effect is negative, but relatively small: in 2020 global plastics use is estimated to have declined by around 10 Mt below 2019 levels (see Chapter 3 in OECD (2022[6]). The economic impacts of the pandemic also have longer-term consequences, as economic growth is projected to recover only gradually and economic activity levels remain permanently below the pre-COVID projection (see Boxes 2.2 and 2.4 in Chapter 2).5
The medium and long-term implications of the pandemic remain highly uncertain. First, the recovery of the economic and health systems remains fragile at the time of writing, despite increasing vaccination rates in many countries. Second, it is uncertain how government recovery packages are being and will be spent and how this affects plastics use. Third, the behavioural changes induced by the lockdowns, not least the shift to online retail, may either gradually phase out or accelerate over time.
Nonetheless, based on Dellink et al. (2021[7]), which assumes that government recovery packages are not explicitly steered towards recycling or secondary plastics, and that behavioural changes are temporary (in which case demand gradually reverts back to the pre-COVID projection), the modelling captures the effect on future plastics use of changes in economic activity at regional and sectoral level. Based on these assumptions, the Baseline scenario suggests that global plastics use remains below the pre-COVID projection in the coming years (Figure 3.12). By 2025, the immediate effects of the early lockdown measures are assumed to have disappeared but the economic impacts are still harshly felt. Thus, plastics use is projected to have recovered to well above 2019 levels, but despite economic growth rates returning to pre-COVID projection rates, use levels remain around 3% below the pre-COVID projection on balance. However, in absolute terms, these effects are small. By 2060, the Baseline scenario projects global plastics use in 2060 to be 1 231 Mt, compared to 1 253 Mt had the pandemic not taken place, a difference of less than 2%. Use trajectories will however strongly depend on the actual speed of the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic (Box 3.4).
Figure 3.12. Overall, the COVID-19 pandemic will reduce regional plastics use projections
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model.
The regional differences in the effect of the pandemic on plastics use are driven by changes in local economic activities. In some countries – not least China and the USA – the recovery from COVID‑19 is forecast to be rapid (OECD, 2021[8]), and plastics use by 2025 is quite close to the pre-COVID projection. In other regions, most notably India, the negative economic effects of the pandemic are projected still be widespread in 2025, leading to plastics use levels that may be 10% below what they would have been without the pandemic. By 2060, growth rates of plastics use are projected to have recovered in all regions, and levels are at most a few percent below the pre-COVID projection.
Box 3.4. How will the speed of recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic affect plastics use?
The uncertainties surrounding the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic (presented in Chapter 2) also apply to plastics use. The projections are clearly influenced by assumptions about the speed of recovery (Figure 3.13; see also Annex B). The Slow recovery scenario assumes more prolonged effects of the pandemic. In this scenario, plastics use also recovers much more slowly, and only starts to approach the pre-COVID reference projection after 2030.
Figure 3.13. A slow recovery from COVID-19 will maintain lower global plastics use levels
Source: OECD ENV-Linkages model, using the economic projections in Dellink et al. (2021[7]).
References
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[5] Dargay, J., J. Madre and A. Berri (2000), “Car Ownership Dynamics Seen Through the Follow-Up of Cohorts: Comparison of France and the United Kingdom”, Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Vol. 1733/1, pp. 31-38, https://doi.org/10.3141/1733-05.
[7] Dellink, R. et al. (2021), “The long-term implications of the Covid-19 pandemic and recovery measures on environmental pressures: A quantitative exploration”, OECD Environment Working Papers, No. 176, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/123dfd4f-en.
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[8] OECD (2021), OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2021 Issue 1, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/edfbca02-en.
[1] OECD (2019), Global Material Resources Outlook to 2060: Economic Drivers and Environmental Consequences, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264307452-en.
[3] Plastics Europe (2005), Eco-profiles of the European Plastics Industry: Polyethylene Theraphlate (PET) (Bottle grade),, http://www.inference.org.uk/sustainable/LCA/elcd/external_docs/petb_31116f00-fabd-11da-974d-0800200c9a66.pdf.
Notes
← 1. Table A A.2 in Annex A explains the regional groupings used in ENV-Linkages.
← 2. Table A A.4 in Annex A summarises the mapping of the economic sectors and plastics applications.
← 3. Plastics use and production for 2019 were estimated by calculating the amount of plastics labelled for recycling, minus the plastics lost in the recycling process (during both sorting and conversion). Information on plastics losses was supplied by Leeds University. The evolution of secondary plastics in the Baseline scenario was then carefully calibrated to have a match between available plastic waste labelled for recycling (minus losses) and secondary production by region to 2060. See Annex A for details on the methodology and (OECD, 2022[6]) for an overview of base year plastics use.
← 4. This sector is slightly more plastic intensive in OECD countries than non-OECD countries. This is a result of the model assumptions that link use of fibres in textiles to the input of chemicals (the sector that creates the fibres). As the model cannot further differentiate between different chemical products, the fibre input is proportional to the input of chemicals in the textile sector.
← 5. Furthermore, the short-term reductions in plastics use will only result in changes in waste streams at the end of products timespan; thus reduced plastics use in 2020 will reduce projected plastic waste streams.