Estonia’s economy continues to perform well, and growing incomes support well-being. However, the expansion has peaked, and growth is set to soften due to weak international demand. Prudent fiscal policy has resulted in low debt, but spending pressures related to meeting infrastructure needs and ageing are mounting. Old age poverty is high and the proposal to allow early withdrawal of pension funds threatens macroeconomic stability and pension adequacy. The gender wage gap is among the highest in the OECD, and inequalities in income and health are considerable, reflecting gaps in the social safety net. The oil-shale sector is highly energy-intensive and is the main culprit behind Estonia’s high greenhouse gas emissions, but reducing dependence on the sector is challenging, as it is an important employer and meets 70% of Estonia’s energy needs. Estonia is a frontrunner in digitalising government services and boasts a number of native ICT unicorns, but Estonian companies lag behind in utilising the productivity potential from adopting digital technologies.

This Economic Survey of Estonia assesses the country’s macroeconomic performance and proposes policy measures to promote higher and more inclusive growth. Policy recommendations relate to how to achieve Estonia’s nine development targets and how to embrace digitalisation by industries.

SPECIAL FEATURE: DIGITALISATION AND PRODUCTIVITY