OECD Economic Surveys: Israel 2020

Executive Summary

The economy is facing a deep shock

The coronavirus pandemic has had profound effects. Lockdown measures and high uncertainty have led to a sharp contraction in output. Large numbers of workers have been put on leave, unwinding some of the employment gains of the past. The downturn hit at a time when the economy was performing well, with GDP growth close to potential, record-low unemployment, and relatively low public debt. However, the crisis threatens to aggravate Israel’s underlying challenges of high poverty, large income gaps and wide productivity disparity between its vibrant high-tech sector and lagging sheltered sectors.

Confinement measures were introduced swiftly and, together with additional steps to strengthen the health care system capacity, helped limit the number of new infections during the first wave of the pandemic. However, a second outbreak, after the economy had largely reopened, has been more difficult to contain. The government and central bank put in place wide-ranging measures to protect people and firms from the economic consequences of the shutdowns.

The labour market has suffered a severe shock. As businesses were shut down, more than a million workers have been temporarily laid-off (Figure 1). Many have regained employment as the economy reopened, supported by government subsidies to rehire workers. However, the severity of the shock and possible restructuring of the economy will leave many looking for jobs. Government policies to retrain workers and support job search will be crucial.

Figure 1. The labour market has weakened substantially

1. Data not available before May 2020.

Source: Israel Central Bureau of Statistics.

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The recovery will be slow (Table 1, Figure 2). The economy started to reopen in late-April. However, a second lockdown in September, high uncertainty, unemployment and new distancing regulations will weigh on the recovery of consumer demand and business investment. Weak global demand will hold back export growth.

Table 1. Output will only recover gradually

	2019	2020	2021
Gross domestic product	3.4	-6.0	2.9
Unemployment rate¹	3.8	6.1	6.5
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)	-3.9	-13.8	-10.3
Public debt (gross, % of GDP)	60.0	77.0	84.7

1. Narrowly defined according to the Labour Force Survey

Source: OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections database.

Figure 2. The second virus outbreak will delay the recovery

Source: OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections database.

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Monetary policy reacted decisively. Quantitative easing was started, the policy rate lowered from 0.25%-0.1%, liquidity provided, and a credit facility for SMEs via banks established. If financial conditions were to tighten, the existing programmes could be further expanded. Inflation will likely continue to undershoot the target range in the near-term.

The banking system entered the crisis in a robust state, and thanks to regulatory and monetary easing as well as government loan guarantees the initial impact on credit supply was limited. Nonetheless the quality of bank balance sheets may deteriorate quickly as liquidity support is withdrawn and firm failures increase. The banks’ heavy exposure to the real estate sector is another risk. Creating a deposit insurance system and a bank resolution framework could further enhance financial stability.

Tax reform can alleviate fiscal challenges and support more inclusive growth

Fiscal policy responded forcefully to the crisis and provided welcome support to the most vulnerable people and struggling firms. Fiscal support should be maintained and targeted to strengthen the recovery. The resulting substantial budget deficits will add to the debt stock.

Additional social and infrastructure spending may be needed to enhance the authorities’ capacity to tackle large socio-economic disparities, boost productivity and support the recovery of aggregate demand. Allowing for this spending while maintaining budget control, will require improved spending efficiency and sustainable increases in tax revenues.

The tax mix is reasonably growth- and employment-friendly but there is scope to improve the efficiency and equity of the tax system. The tax burden on labour is relatively low, and the corporate income tax rate has been cut in recent years, while taxes on consumption, which are less distortive, are relied on more heavily. Nevertheless, ample room exists to simplify the tax system by abolishing inefficient tax expenditures and broadening tax bases.

The share of the working poor is high (Figure 3). Israel’s earned income tax credit is an effective redistribution measure with positive employment effects for low-skilled workers. Further expanding the programme would support the poor while maintaining strong incentives to work.

Figure 3. The number of working poor is high

Share of workers in poverty, per cent, 2017

Note: Workers with income below the poverty line, living in households with a working-age head and at least one worker. 2018 data for Australia and Israel.

Source: OECD Income Distribution database.

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The business tax system provides large benefits to internationally competitive and high-tech firms. This preferential treatment should be reviewed with a view to better targeting the scheme to ensure net benefits to society and reduced distortions. Better targeting could create room for broader business and innovation support that underpins the economy more widely.

Excise taxes should be adjusted in line with environmental goals. Introducing congestion charging would reduce traffic flows and pollution, and would prepare Israel for the planned phase-out of petrol- and diesel-fired cars starting in 2030. Gradually increasing taxes on gas and coal or introducing an economy-wide carbon tax would lower CO₂ emissions in a cost-minimising way and protect the tax base as energy generation and use shift to natural gas.

Reducing income disparities between municipalities will strengthen social cohesion

Income inequalities between municipalities are among the highest in the OECD, despite Israel being one of the smallest OECD countries. Poverty rates vary significantly between different areas (Figure 4), as ethnic and religious groups with weak labour market outcomes are concentrated in separate cities or neighbourhoods.

Figure 4. Poverty rates differ significantly across districts

1. Poverty threshold is 50 % of the national median equivalised disposable income.

Source: National Insurance Institute (2019).

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The quality of schools and the attractiveness of the local labour market differ considerably between municipalities. Increasing the quality of education by moderating the differences between the various school streams would improve the employability of the labour force. The core subjects should be strengthened in the curriculum of the Haredi stream. Post-secondary vocational programmes should be expanded to target those adults who left school without proper skills.

Improving public transportation and coordination between central government and local authorities in infrastructure projects may help connect vulnerable groups to job opportunities. Establishing metropolitan transport authorities could promote integrated transport networks and pricing systems and ensure stable financial support for public transport.

Poorer municipalities do not have enough resources to finance adequate public services for their residents, which further widens the gaps between municipalities. This calls for changes in the local fiscal framework. Stronger equalisation through higher compensation from wealthier municipalities should be considered. The government could also merge municipalities and promote regional clusters to improve efficiency.

The property tax is the main source of municipal income but suffers from several major deficiencies. The current system is opaque, and large differences in rates between residential and non-residential properties and among non-residential properties contribute to revenue disparities between municipalities, housing shortages and locational distortions.

Strengthening product market competition and promoting renewable energy to boost and green the recovery

Stark differences in productivity exist between sectors. While productivity in high-tech sectors is already internationally high, the more traditional sectors lag significantly behind. Enhancing aggregate productivity will involve not only removing barriers that prevent resources from shifting into the high-tech sector, whose expansion has slowed, but also lifting the productivity of the long tail of lagging sectors. This will require developing human capital, improving infrastructure and fostering competition and regulatory reform in sheltered sectors.

Despite progress, regulations in a number of areas are more restrictive than in other OECD countries. For instance, price regulations are still widespread, and barriers to foreign trade and investment remain high, with Israel’s foreign trade exposure lower than in other small OECD nations. Further lowering tariff and non-tariff barriers as well as streamlining trade procedures will boost competition and productivity in sheltered sectors.

Tariffs and regulations remain particularly distorting in the agricultural sector. The authorities signed a welcome agreement with farmers in 2018 to undertake a comprehensive reform of the dairy sector, which would improve the functioning of this market if legislated and implemented. The agricultural reform process should continue in other areas, notably through the replacement of quotas, price guarantees and customs tariffs by non-distorting direct payments to farmers.

Poor air quality remains a concern for well-being. The transition to natural gas has the potential to reduce CO₂ emissions and pollution in the near term. To achieve deeper cuts and take advantage of falling costs, the share of renewables in electricity generation must rise.

The electricity market reform of 2018 will increase competition in electricity generation, providing an opportunity to expand renewables. The reform also foresees the transfer of transmission system operations to a separate but also government-owned company. It will be important to avoid any discrimination in grid access through effective regulation and to further develop a wholesale electricity market and high-resolution electricity pricing. The government can also promote the expansion of large-scale solar plants through tenders integrating land-use rights and by making more public land available for tenders.

 

MAIN FINDINGS	KEY RECOMMENDATIONS
Setting monetary and financial policies to promote stability
Monetary policy has responded decisively to the crisis to provide liquidity and ensure an orderly functioning of financial markets. Inflation remains subdued and below the target band of 1-3%.	Maintain a supportive monetary policy stance, and stand ready to further expand existing programmes, if financial conditions tighten.
Financial risks have increased as more firms face an uncertain future. Banks’ exposure to the real estate sector is heavy.	Continue providing temporary liquidity support to firms as long as needed to avoid widespread bankruptcies. Create a deposit insurance system and a bank resolution framework to further enhance financial stability.
Implementing budget and tax policies to support an inclusive recovery
Fiscal policy has reacted forcefully to the crisis to cushion income losses for the most vulnerable people and firms. Employment has fallen significantly.	Continue to provide fiscal support to buttress the recovery and enhance active labour market policies to help the unemployed transition to new jobs.
As a result of the exceptional fiscal support the budget deficit will surge from an already elevated structural level and public debt will increase substantially. The government has recently strengthened its medium-term fiscal framework. However, there is scope to further strengthen compliance with the existing fiscal rules.	Formulate a medium-term fiscal strategy to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio back onto a downward trajectory, while ensuring adequate spending on infrastructure, education and poverty reduction. Establish an independent fiscal council.
There is scope to reduce inefficient tax expenditures, which complicate the tax system and introduce distortions.	Consider reducing tax breaks on savings in “advanced training funds”, taking into account effects on income distribution and work incentives. In the medium term, streamline VAT exemptions and offset any regressive effects with an increase in existing welfare programmes
The share of working poor is high.	Make the temporary changes to the earned income tax credit permanent. Evaluate and consider expanding the programme further.
The business tax system provides large benefits to internationally competitive and high-tech firms. This may have attracted FDI but also creates distortions, tax planning opportunities, and raises the costs of tax administration.	Review the preferential tax treatment under the Law for the Encouragement of Capital Investment with a view to better targeting the scheme.
Pollution is well above recommended levels, and road traffic intensity is the highest in the OECD. Congestion causes the loss of both work and leisure hours and more air pollution and road accidents. Israel plans to end the sale of petrol and diesel-fired cars in 2030. Effective carbon tax rates on coal and natural gas are low. Higher rates would lower CO2 emissions in a cost-minimising way, make renewable energy generation more competitive and further reduce air pollution.	Introduce congestion charges, accompanied by significant improvements in the quality of public transport services and higher parking fees. Either introduce an economy-wide carbon tax or gradually increase the existing excise tax on primary fuels to levels that reflect estimated emissions externalities. Offset real income losses, in particular of low-income households, through transfers.
Reducing differences between municipalities to strengthen social cohesion
Localities in Israel differ considerably in the skill levels of their labour force. Many adult Haredi men left schools without labour market relevant skills and have few options to acquire these skills afterwards.	Expand post-secondary vocational training targeted at groups with weak attachment to the labour market such as Haredi and Arab-Israelis.
The existence of multiple school streams in Israel reinforces geographic disparities in education, along religious/community lines. Student streaming has a significant impact on equity, contributes to the wide dispersion in skills in Israel and creates additional fiscal costs.	Promote teacher exchanges. Increase Hebrew courses in the Arab stream. Strengthen the core subjects in the curriculum of the Haredi stream.
Public transportation is inadequate, and coordination between central government and local authorities in infrastructure projects is one of the least effective in the OECD. Large projects require the consent of the relevant local authorities, which often leads to lengthy negotiations that slow project advancement.	Establish metropolitan transport authorities in the Tel Aviv area and perhaps other areas to promote integrated transport networks and pricing systems, and ensure stable financial support for public transport.
There are large differences in public services provision between poorer and wealthier municipalities. Differences in resources mean that poorer municipalities can find it difficult to provide adequate services levels for their residents.	Strengthen fiscal equalisation within municipalities mainly through higher compensation from wealthier municipalities.
The municipal property tax system is opaque. Non-residential property tax rates are substantially higher than residential rates, which provides incentives for municipalities to assign land for commercial use at the expense of residential housing and has contributed to large revenue differences across municipalities.	Reduce the difference between non-residential and residential property tax rates. Replace the area-based property tax with a transparent and uniform system based on property values.

 

Boosting competition and promoting renewable energy to deliver better product market outcomes
Despite progress, competition in some markets remains weak. The economy is less open to foreign trade than most other small OECD countries.	Further cut tariffs and non-tariff barriers, and streamline trade regulations.
The cost of generating solar electricity may fall below that of gas in the medium term, especially for large-scale plants. Solar expansion is held back by transmission grid constraints and a lack of available land. Expanding renewable energy and dual land usage would avoid GHG emissions and pollution.	Use tenders integrating private and public land-use rights to attract investment into large-scale solar electricity generation and transmission networks, and make more public land available for tenders.
Electricity market reforms foresee the transfer of transmission system operations to a separate but also government-owned company and an electricity wholesale market. Any discrimination in grid access could hold back renewables. Electricity markets need to adapt to intermittent renewables supply.	Further develop the wholesale market as planned, with high-resolution electricity pricing across time and space, competitive determination of market prices and effective regulation to prevent discrimination against new entrants.