The Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030 is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations and input from collaborating member countries to provide an annual assessment of prospects for the coming decade of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets.
The Agricultural Outlook is prepared jointly by the OECD and FAO Secretariats.
At the OECD, the baseline projections and Outlook report were prepared by members of the Trade and Agriculture Directorate: Marcel Adenäuer, Annelies Deuss, Armelle Elasri (publication co-ordinator), Clara Frezal, Hubertus Gay (Outlook co-ordinator), Gaëlle Gouarin, Lee Ann Jackson (Head of Division), Tatsuji Koizumi, Claude Nenert, Daniela Rodriguez Niño, and Grégoire Tallard of the Agro-Food Trade and Markets Division, and for fish and seafood by Claire Delpeuch and Will Symes of the Agricultural Resources Policy Division. The OECD Secretariat is grateful for the contributions provided by the visiting expert Tamara Persaud (Agriculture & Agri-Food Canada). The partial stochastic modelling builds on work by the Economics of Agriculture Unit of the European Commission's Joint Research Centre. The organisation of meetings and publication preparation were provided by Helia Mossavar-Rahmani and Michèle Patterson. Technical assistance in the preparation of the Outlook database was provided by Eric Espinasse, Karine Lepron, Samuel Pinto Ribeiro, and Marc Regnier. Many other colleagues in the OECD Secretariat and member country delegations provided useful comments on earlier drafts of the report.
At the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the baseline projections and Outlook report were prepared by members of the Markets and Trade Division (EST) under the leadership of Boubaker Ben-Belhassen (EST Division Director) and Josef Schmidhuber (EST Division Deputy Director), with the overall guidance of Máximo Torero (FAO Chief Economist) and by the Economic and Social Development Stream Management team. The core projections team consisted of: Sergio René Araujo Enciso, Ilaria Capponi, Merritt Cluff, Ousmane Diabre, Aikaterini Kavallari, Holger Matthey (Team Leader), Svetlana Mladenovic, and Irmak Yaka. For fish, the team consisted of Adrienne Egger and Stefania Vannuccini from the FAO Fisheries Division, with technical support from Pierre Charlebois. Advice on fishmeal and fish oil issues and historical data were provided by Enrico Bachis from the Marine Ingredients Organisation (IFFO). The section on cotton benefited from data and technical advice by Lorena Ruiz from the International Cotton Advisory Committee. The section on bananas and major tropical fruits was contributed by Sabine Altendorf, Giuseppe Bonavita and Pascal Liu. Insights and support regarding FAOSTAT data was provided by Tomasz Filipczuk and Salar Tayyib. Francesco Tubiello advised on greenhouse gas emissions. Commodity expertise was provided by Abdolreza Abbassian, ElMamoun Amrouk, Erin Collier, Shirley Mustafa, Fabio Palmeri, Peter Thoenes, G.A. Upali Wickramasinghe, and Di Yang. The box “Growth potential for agricultural productivity in Africa” was contributed by Valentina Pernechele, Francisco Fontes, Renata Baborska, Jules Cabrel Nkuingoua, Xueyao Pan and Carine Tuyishime, and the one on “Trade and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)” was authored by Georgios Mermigkas and Ishrat Gadhok. The box “Beyond the conventional Outlook: Assessing agri-food systems transformation” is based on material provided by Jose Valls Bedeau and Jamie Morrison (ESF). Research assistance and database preparation were provided by David Bedford, Harout Dekermendjian, Annamaria Giusti, Grace Maria Karumathy, Yanyun Li, Lavinia Lucarelli, Emanuele Marocco, and Marco Milo. This edition also benefited from comments made by various colleagues from FAO and member country institutions. Araceli Cardenas, Yongdong Fu, Jonathan Hallo, Jessica Mathewson, Kimberly Sullivan, and Ettore Vecchione provided invaluable assistance with publication and communication issues.
Tracy Davids from the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy led the drafting of the Regional Briefs. They were produced with generous support from the FAO Regional offices and national collaborators. Special thanks go to Cheng Fang (REU), Jean Senahoun (RAF), JeanMarc Faures, Tamara Nanitashvili (RNE), David Dawe (RAP) and Bhaskar Goswami (FAOBD) and Rubén Flores Agreda (RLC).
Finally, information and feedback provided by the International Cotton Advisory Committee, International Dairy Federation, International Fertilizer Association, International Grains Council, International Sugar Organization, Marine Ingredients Organisation (IFFO) and World Association of Beet and Cane Growers is gratefully acknowledged.
The complete Agricultural Outlook, including the fully documented Outlook database that includes historical data and projections, can be accessed through the OECD-FAO joint internet site www.agri-outlook.org.
The published Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030 is available in the OECD’s iLibrary and FAO Document Repository.