Plastics production doubled between 2000 and 2019, from 234 to 460 million tonnes (Mt). Without more ambitious policies, the amount of plastics produced around the world will continue to rise. Global production and use of plastics is set to reach 736 million tonnes by 2040, up 70% from 435 Mt in 2020. It will continue to outpace global population growth as demand for plastics is projected to remain high and further increase in OECD countries. Fast growth is similarly expected in emerging economies in Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America.     

Recycled plastics will continue to make up a mere 6% of all plastics produced in 2040. As plastic volumes balloon, mismanaged waste will increase by 47% and plastic leakage to the environment by 50% by 2040 (from 2020 levels), threatening ecosystems and the people that depend on them.

There are a range of policies that countries can use to eliminate plastic leakage. Strategies that focus on globally enhancing waste management alone without slowing down waste generation will likely fail to eliminate plastic leakage. Similarly, the implementation of stringent policies only in advanced economies, or low policy stringency globally across the plastics lifecycle, will only marginally affect plastic leakage. 

Ambitious global policy action across the plastics lifecycle (to curb production and demand, design for circularity, enhance recycling and close leakage pathways) can decouple economic growth from plastics use, quadruple the average global recycling rate (from 9.5% in 2020 to 42% in 2040) and nearly end the leakage of plastic waste to the environment (96% reduction from business as usual) by 2040.

The most ambitious policy scenario targets all phases of the plastics lifecycle, limiting the amount of plastics entering the economy. Reducing plastics demand will ultimately moderate the cost of managing its waste and result in less plastic leakage to the environment. Waste reduction policies and additional investments in waste sorting and recycling could limit additional costs to end plastic leakage to only USD 50 billion by 2040, on top of business-as-usual costs (USD 2.1 trillion between 2020 and 2040). Strategies that rely on more lenient policies will be more costly or reap fewer rewards. 

The implementation of stringent global policy action along the plastics lifecycle is projected to incur a 0.5% global GDP loss in 2040 compared to business as usual. Costs will be higher in non-OECD countries, especially in those that will need to invest more to upgrade their waste management systems. Sub-Saharan Africa will bear the largest costs (1.5% GDP loss compared to business as usual). These costs must be considered relative to the much higher costs of inaction and the environmental benefits of acting.