This global screening study makes a first estimate of the exposure of the world's large port cities to coastal
flooding due to storm surge and damage due to high winds. This assessment also investigates how climate
change is likely to impact each port city's exposure to coastal flooding by the 2070s, alongside subsidence
and population growth and urbanisation. The study provides a much more comprehensive analysis than
earlier assessments, focusing on the 136 port cities around the world that have more than one million
inhabitants in 2005. The analysis demonstrates that a large number of people are already exposed to coastal
flooding in large port cities. Across all cities, about 40 million people (0.6% of the global population or
roughly 1 in 10 of the total port city population in the cities considered here) are exposed to a 1 in 100 year
coastal flood event.
For present-day conditions (2005), the top ten cities in terms of exposed population are estimated to be
Mumbai, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Miami, Ho Chi Minh City, Kolkata, Greater New York, Osaka-Kobe,
Alexandria and New Orleans; almost equally split between developed and developing countries. When
assets are considered, the current distribution becomes more heavily weighted towards developed
countries, as the wealth of the cities becomes important. The top 10 cities in terms of assets exposed are
Miami, Greater New York, New Orleans, Osaka-Kobe, Tokyo, Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Nagoya, Tampa-St
Petersburg and Virginia Beach. These cities contain 60% of the total exposure, but are from only three
(wealthy) countries: USA, Japan and the Netherlands. The total value of assets exposed in 2005 is across
all cities considered here is estimated to be US$3,000 billion; corresponding to around 5% of global GDP
in 2005 (both measured in international USD)...
Ranking Port Cities with High Exposure and Vulnerability to Climate Extremes
Exposure Estimates
Working paper
OECD Environment Working Papers
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24 October 2024
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Working paper3 October 2024