At the moment of the finalisation of this report, restrictions to contain and mitigate the spread and infection rate of the Covid-19 virus were still in place in countries around the world. While it is clear that the pandemic and the necessary containment and mitigation measures taken by governments worldwide have triggered a deep global economic recession, which has undoubtedly also affected the sharing/gig economy activity, it is unclear at the time of completion of this report what the actual impact of the pandemic will be on the sharing/gig economy. This annex outlines a number of emerging observations based on anecdotal evidence from publicly available sources (cited below) and consultation with sharing/gig economy representatives at the time of the finalisation of the report.
Overall, jurisdictions will need to continue monitoring the economic impact of the pandemic, including the impact on the sharing/gig economy, and adjust their policy responses accordingly as appropriate.
It remains difficult to anticipate and estimate the medium- and longer-term impact of the COVID-19 crisis on economic growth and activity, let alone on the sharing/gig economy specifically. It is clear, however, that the outbreak of the pandemic and the lockdown and social distancing measures introduced in countries worldwide to stop the virus from spreading have notably caused significant disruptions to the economic sectors that involve physical contact and movement of people in the public space. This has inevitably impacted activity in what are currently the largest sectors of the sharing/gig economy, i.e. the sectors of transportation (“ride-sourcing”) and of short-term accommodation (real-estate rental).
On the other hand, new habits have developed in response to the COVID-19 outbreak that are likely to have a positive impact on certain types of sharing/gig activity, such as online teaching; delivery of food and other items sold online; provision of non-traditional types of short-term accommodation as people are not comfortable staying in traditional hotels or resorts; short-term rental of online working space…. Growth in sharing/gig economy activity that responds to behavioural changes from the COVID-19 outbreak may (have) offset some of the loss of activity in other sharing/gig economy sectors.
To some extent, the platforms that generate and facilitate sharing/gig economy activity may be in a better position to weather the COVID-19 crisis than their competitors in the traditional industries, as they may have more flexibility in managing their costs and risks. This may apply in particular to the larger sharing/gig economy platforms operators, which continue to have access to finance. The situation may be more challenging for smaller and/or start-up platforms. Sharing/gig economy platform operators may however also attract additional attention from investors that may wish to tap into the capacity of this economy to respond to new consumer needs and changes in people’s behaviour during and after the crisis. Some sharing/gig economy platforms, including smaller ones, became a lifeline for traditional businesses in certain sectors (e.g. restaurants) adapting to new ways of continuing to serve their customers. It is unlikely that these businesses will stop using these new, technology-based distribution channels after the crisis. This could also provide opportunities for small(er) sharing/gig economy platforms to survive and grow.
Similarly, it could be expected that (even) more people may look to supplement their income after the crisis including by monetising their skills and assets via sharing/gig economy activities.
Overall, it can be expected that a number of (new) habits developed during the pandemic will continue after the pandemic. For example, a share of the population may continue embracing the “live-and-work-anywhere” mind-set that has grown during the pandemic and this may lead to an increase demand in rental of short-term accommodation as people that have the flexibility to work from anywhere may want to do so from many different locations.
Even as the coronavirus changes people’s lifestyles, early studies among consumers appear to be optimistic about the future of the sharing/gig economy in the long run. Research in the United States has for instance suggested that only about 25% of users might stop using sharing/gig economy services post- COVID-19 in the absence of a vaccine (which has meanwhile become available).