This chapter provides an overview of tax revenue in countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). The chapter presents data on tobacco excise tax revenue, discusses its level over time, as well as revenue from other indirect taxes levied on tobacco products. The chapter explores relationships between tobacco excise tax revenue and other indicators of tobacco use and tobacco tax policy.
Tobacco Taxation in Latin America and the Caribbean
2. Tobacco tax revenue in Latin America and the Caribbean
Copy link to 2. Tobacco tax revenue in Latin America and the CaribbeanAbstract
2.1. Tax revenue in LAC
Copy link to 2.1. Tax revenue in LACIn 2022, the average tax-to-GDP ratio in LAC was 21.5% (Figure 2.1). Revenue across the region ranges from 10.6% of gross domestic product (GDP) in Guyana to 33.3% of GDP in Brazil. Given the elevated fiscal deficits in the region (World Bank, 2024[1]), and the fact that, on average, central government gross debt remains above pre‑pandemic levels (OECD et al., 2023[2]), there is a need for LAC countries to increase their tax revenue.
Taxes on goods and services account, on average, for half of total tax revenue in LAC (Figure 2.2). The proportion of revenue derived from taxes on goods and services varies significantly, ranging from 10.9% of total tax revenue in Cuba to 79.1% in the Bahamas. Excise tax revenue, on average, make up 6.7% of total tax revenue but also vary considerably across countries in the LAC region (from 1.7% in Trinidad and Tobago to 15.0% in the Dominican Republic).
Revenue from health excise taxes (i.e. excise taxes levied on alcohol, tobacco and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs)) varies substantially across LAC countries (Figure 2.3). Based on available data, health excise tax revenue ranges from 0.1% of GDP in Brazil (when considering for the tobacco only the Imposto sobre productos industrializados – IPI, which is the excise tax on tobacco, and no other indirect taxes, see Box 2.1) to 0.7% of GDP in the Dominican Republic.
In the LAC region, tobacco excise taxes tend to raise less revenue than alcohol excise taxes. In LAC, excise taxes on alcohol raise 0.24% of GDP in revenue on average, followed by excise taxes on tobacco (0.13% of GDP) and SSB (0.10% of GDP) (based on sample of 17 countries, see Figure 2.3). Out of the 16 LAC countries for which information is available, 12 countries raise higher excise tax revenue on alcohol than on tobacco. This differs from other regions in the world where revenue from tobacco excise taxes (0.5-0.6% of GDP in 2019) exceeds revenue from alcohol excise taxes (0.3% of GDP in 2019) (Blecher, Ozer and Bloom, 2023[4]).
2.2. Tobacco excise tax revenue in LAC countries
Copy link to 2.2. Tobacco excise tax revenue in LAC countriesTobacco taxes, which are indirect taxes levied on tobacco products, consist of four types of taxes: tobacco excise taxes, the value added tax (VAT) (and sales taxes, if any), import duties, and any other indirect taxes (see the note of Figure 2.4 for a definition of each tax). This section starts by looking at revenue raised by all tobacco taxes before focusing on tobacco excise revenue. According to the available data, revenue from tobacco taxes ranges from 0.01% of total tax revenue in Barbados (less than 0.01% of GDP) to 2.58% of total tax revenue in Chile (0.67% of GDP).
There is significant scope for countries in LAC to improve the quality of the tobacco tax revenue data they report. Box 2.1 provides detailed information on the sources and availability of tobacco tax revenue data and shows that there are significant differences across countries and sources. For instance, many countries do no report tobacco tax revenue across all tobacco tax types. About one third of countries in LAC do not report disaggregated tobacco tax revenue data (Box 2.1). Hence for these countries data in Figure 2.4 likely underestimate actual tobacco tax revenue. For countries for which data are available, inconsistencies across data sources can be observed (e.g., Argentina, Bolivia, Honduras, Nicaragua and Trinidad and Tobago). These issues underscore the need for improving the quality of tobacco tax revenue data at the country level.
In most LAC countries (22 out of 28) tobacco excise taxes constitute the largest share of the total taxes levied on tobacco products (Figure 2.4). Costa Rica, Dominica, Haiti and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines are the only countries where the VAT raises the largest share of tobacco tax revenue (Antigua and Barbuda is not considered because the country does not levy a tobacco excise tax).
Comparatively low tobacco excise tax revenue signals that countries in LAC might have scope to raise more tobacco excise tax revenue (Goodchild, Sandoval and Belausteguigoitia, 2017[8]). Tobacco excise taxes raise, on average, 0.12% of GDP (0.50% of total tax revenue) in LAC (based on sample of 30 countries, see Figure 2.5). As pointed out before, this is below the average observed from an international sample of countries (0.5-0.6% of GDP; see (Blecher, Ozer and Bloom, 2023[4])). Tobacco excise tax revenue ranges from less than 0.01% of GDP in Barbados, Dominica, Haiti, and Saint Kitts and Nevis to 0.45% of GDP (1.86% of total tax revenue) in Chile.
Tobacco excise tax revenue in LAC is declining (Figure 2.6). From 2012 to 2022, the average tobacco excise tax revenue (based on a sample of 16 countries for which data is available over the entire period) declined from 0.21% to 0.13% of GDP (from 1.06% to 0.60% of total tax revenue). It declined in 15 countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, and Uruguay) and increased in only one country (Colombia). In constant local currencies (with prices fixed for 2022), tobacco excise tax revenue declined in 11 countries (Brazil, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Mexico, Panama, Suriname, and Uruguay) and increased in five countries (Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Paraguay, and Peru). This follows a longer-term trend of declining tobacco excise tax revenue (as a share of total tax revenue) observed in the region since 1990 (Rodriguez-Iglesias and Chaloupka, 2017[10]). To some extent, this trend is a reflection of the significant decrease in tobacco use over time in the LAC region (see Figure 1.6 in Chapter 1).
Box 2.1. Availability of data on tobacco tax revenue
Copy link to Box 2.1. Availability of data on tobacco tax revenueIn this chapter, the main sources for tobacco tax revenue data are:
OECD Revenue Statistics which publishes tobacco excise tax revenue for 15 LAC countries.
The WHO report on the global tobacco epidemic which publishes data on revenue from tobacco excise taxes for 30 LAC countries, and revenue for all non-excise tobacco tax instruments (VAT, import duties and other taxes) for 21 LAC countries. This chapter includes data from the 2021 and 2023 editions (WHO, 2021[9]) and (WHO, 2023[6]).
National data, which is used for the five countries for which the OECD does not publish tobacco excise tax revenue: Bolivia (Plurinational State of Bolivia, 2021[11]), Mexico (Government of Mexico, 2023[12]), Peru, Paraguay (Government of Paraguay, 2023[13]), and Suriname (Government of Suriname, 2024[14]).
Three countries were not (or partially) included in the analysis:
Cuba does not report disaggregated tobacco tax revenue in the OECD Revenue Statistics or in the WHO report on the global tobacco epidemic.
Venezuela because of data issues.
Antigua and Barbuda is excluded from tobacco excise tax analysis as there is no tobacco excise tax in place.
Some countries were excluded from parts of the analysis because of inconsistency in tobacco excise tax revenue data between sources:
In four countries, inconsistencies between the WHO and OECD Revenue Statistics data was observed.
For Nicaragua and Trinidad and Tobago: WHO data were used as it more closely aligns with publicly available national data (hence, those countries are excluded from Figure 2.3, Figure 2.6 and Figure 2.7 which rely on OECD and national data).
For Argentina and Honduras: OECD data were used as it more closely aligns with national data (hence those countries are not represented in Figure 2.4 which uses WHO data).
For Bolivia, inconsistency between the WHO and the national source was observed for 2019 (the latest year for which WHO reports tobacco excise tax revenue). National data was used in this chapter, and hence Bolivia is excluded from Figure 2.4 which relies only on WHO data.
For some countries, specific observations are to be made:
Costa Rica: OECD Revenue Statistics provides data for the specific tax on tobacco (“Impuesto a los Productos de Tabaco”) but does not provide disaggregated data for the ad valorem excise tax on tobacco (“Impuesto Selectivo de Consumo”). Data for the latter is only reported in a broad category “Other specific taxes on consumption”. Hence, tobacco excise tax data available for Costa Rica are a lower bound estimate.
Brazil: Tobacco tax revenue data reported by the WHO only includes revenue collected by the federal excise tax levied on tobacco product (i.e. Imposto sobre productos industrializados, IPI). and from another indirect tax (i.e. the Programas de Integração Social e de Formação do Patrimônio do Servidor Público - PIS/Pasep). It does not include revenue from the Imposto sobre Operações relativas à Circulação de Mercadorias e sobre Prestações de Serviços de Transporte Interestadual (ICMS) which is another indirect tax for which data are not available. Hence, tobacco tax revenue data for Brazil are a lower bound estimate.
Data on GDP and total tax revenue that was used to compute indicators is from OECD Revenue Statistics (OECD, 2024[3]) or the IMF World Economic Outlook (IMF, 2023[7]). Tobacco tax revenue data from the WHO was paired with IMF data (for Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Grenada, Haiti, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago). Tobacco tax revenue data from the OECD and national sources (with the exception of Suriname as it is not covered by OECD Revenue Statistics) was paired with GDP and total tax revenue data from the OECD (for Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay and Uruguay). Figure 2.4 is an exception: it uses tobacco tax revenue data from the WHO, and total tax revenue data from the IMF.
Source: OECD.
2.3. Correlations between tobacco excise tax revenue and indicators of tobacco use and tax policy
Copy link to 2.3. Correlations between tobacco excise tax revenue and indicators of tobacco use and tax policyThe variation in tobacco tax revenue across countries can be correlated to a wide range of factors. The main factors that may contribute to the differences in tobacco excise tax revenue include a country’s tax mix, the tobacco excise tax design, the administration of the tax, the intensity of illicit tobacco trade, prices of tobacco products (when there is an ad valorem component – an ad valorem tax being a tax on the value of a transaction at some point in the production or distribution chain), and the volume of tobacco that is consumed (Rodriguez-Iglesias and Chaloupka, 2017[10]; World Bank, 2019[15]; Blecher, Ozer and Bloom, 2023[4]). The figures in the remainder of this chapter explore correlations between tobacco excise tax revenue and other indicators of tobacco use and tobacco tax policy across LAC countries.
Tobacco excise tax revenue tends to be higher in countries for which indirect taxes are an important part of their tax mix. LAC countries that raise higher revenue from taxes on goods and services also tend to raise higher revenue from tobacco excise taxes (Figure 2.7). The correlation remains positive when outliers (Argentina, Chile and Uruguay) are not included.
LAC countries with a specific or mixed tobacco excise tax structures raise, on average, more tobacco excise tax revenue than countries with an ad valorem structure (Figure 2.8; Figure 2.12). This observation is aligned with other findings based on an international sample, where the average tobacco excise tax revenue corresponds to 0.6% for specific structures (specific tobacco excise levies a lump-sum amount per stick, pack, 1 000 sticks, or kilogram), and 0.7% for mixed structures (combination of a specific component with an ad valorem component) versus 0.2% of GDP for ad valorem structures (Blecher, Ozer and Bloom, 2023[4]). However, the World Bank finds larger differences in average tobacco excise tax revenue between tax structures across the world than this chapter’s results for LAC.
On average countries with higher tobacco excise tax as a share of cigarette retail price tend to raise more tobacco excise tax revenue (Figure 2.9), but this correlation needs to be nuanced. Analysis in Chapter 1 shows that the countries that meet the MPOWER R target are also the ones with the lowest tax-inclusive prices, which puts their tobacco tax revenue under pressure. Countries such as Argentina and Chile (and Uruguay to a lesser extent) that meet the MPOWER R target, have high excise tax revenue because of high tobacco prevalence (see Figure 1.1 in Chapter 1) despite having low cigarettes prices. In other countries with a low excise tax share and low prevalence (e.g. Jamaica), high excise tax revenue can be explained by high cigarettes prices (see Figure 1.13 in Chapter 1).
Tobacco use is positively correlated with tobacco excise tax revenue (Figure 2.10; Figure 2.11). A positive correlation between tobacco excise tax revenue and tobacco use prevalence is presented in Figure 2.10. Similarly, Figure 2.11 illustrates a positive correlation between tobacco excise tax revenue and legal cigarettes sales per capita. For countries with a similar tobacco use, measured either through prevalence rates or through cigarette sales per capita, significant differences in tobacco excise tax revenue can be observed. For example, tobacco excise tax revenue in countries with a tobacco use prevalence rate of approximately 10% varies between 0.04% of GDP (Ecuador) and 0.32% of GDP (Jamaica). This suggests that, for a similar tobacco use, countries with relatively low tobacco excise tax revenue could be foregoing significant tobacco tax revenue.
Whilst their main objective is to reduce tobacco consumption, tobacco excise taxes have the potential to raise more revenue on average in LAC (WHO, 2021[18]; Goodchild, Sandoval and Belausteguigoitia, 2017[8]). Figure 2.12 reflects substantial variation across LAC countries in the average excise tax revenue collected per pack of legal cigarettes sold, ranging from USD purchasing power parity (PPP) 0.5 in Bolivia to USD PPP 4.5 in Chile. Country-specific analysis is required to quantify the additional tobacco tax revenue that individual countries could raise but, overall, the differences across the region and the previous findings suggest that many countries could increase the tax revenue collected per pack of cigarettes. As previously observed in Figure 2.8, specific and mixed tobacco excise tax structures tend to generate more revenue than an ad valorem structure (WHO, 2021[18]).
References
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