Spatial data is key to understanding conflict dynamics. SWAC’s Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator (SCDi) maps the geography of conflict in North and West Africa since 1997. By measuring the intensity and spatial distribution of violent events, the SCDi provides policy makers with key insights on how conflict is spreading or contracting within or across national borders. It helps inform policies addressing local, national, cross-border and regional dimensions of conflict.
Security, borders and development
Violence in West Africa is at an all-time high. The number of violent events and fatalities is constantly rising. Violence is also spreading to coastal states along the Gulf of Guinea. To better understand these trends, SWAC examines both the geographical dimensions of conflict, as well as the relationships between actors in conflict. Innovative spatial and dynamic social network analyses provide insights into security challenges in the region.
Key messages
The number of actors in conflict is at an all-time high. These actors include state forces, rebel groups, and extremist organisations. Their relationships are complex and volatile. They can be allies one day, fight each other the next, and co-operate later again. Conflict is also increasingly centred around a few powerful, violent actors. Better knowledge of these relationships is crucial to informing regional strategies that aim for long‑term political stability.
Rural areas accounted for more than 40% of all violent events and fatalities between 2000-2022 in North and West Africa. The proportion of violent events in urban areas has decreased over time. When violence does occur in urban areas, it is mainly observed in small agglomerations with 100 000 inhabitants or less. Mid-sized or large cities rarely see violent events, but conflict in surrounding rural areas isolate these cities from their hinterlands.
Context
Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator
The Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator (SCDi) maps the spatial and temporal evolution of violence in North and West Africa since 1997. It identifies four types of conflict classified by their i) intensity and ii) concentration. Since 2011, North and West Africa have been engulfed in a wave of violence. The last five years are the most violent ever recorded due to a sharp rise in violence targeting civilians and borderlands. Major hotspots include Nigeria, the central Sahel, and the Lake Chad region. Violence is also spreading from the Sahel to coastal countries. The SCDi was developed by the Sahel and West Africa Club (SWAC/OECD) in co-operation with the University of Florida’s Sahel Research Group.
Borderlands are strongly associated with violence
MAPTA-Borders maps the occurrence of violent events in West Africa's borderlands. Categorising by distance, type of event, and number of fatalities, this interactive map helps policy makers understand the spatial dynamics of violence, contributing to more place-based and contextualised policies.
Since 1997, violence has been more likely to occur in borderlands than elsewhere in the region. Between 1997 and 2023, 49% of violent events and 50% of fatalities occurred within 100km of national borders.
Major border conflict epicentres are the Lake Chad and the Burkina Faso/Mali/Niger tri-border. In 2023, 40% of violent events and 43% of fatalities in the three countries occurred within just 50 km of the tri-border. A conflict belt 1 200 km long and 200 km wide stretches from Central Mali to the Tillaberi region in Niger. This shows how entrenched violence has become and speaks to the need for co-ordinated cross-border solutions.
Increasingly fragmented conflict networks threaten civilian lives
North and West African conflict networks are becoming increasingly fragmented. Violent actors navigate a complex network of alliances and rivalries, often switching between hostile and co-operative relationships. Emerging in these networks are a set of highly active and extremely violent actors.
This sociogram represents 480 actors involved in violent events in North and West Africa, and the 771 rivalries between them. The width of the ties is proportionate to the number of ties between the actors. The size of the nodes is proportional to the number of ties they have with other actors. The centre is occupied by Nigerian civilians, who are targeted by government forces, extremist organisations and other armed groups.
