OECD Economic Surveys: Colombia 2022

Executive summary

The economy has recovered well

Colombia’s economy has recovered remarkably well from the COVID-19 crisis, as strong fiscal and monetary policy support have successfully averted a stronger contraction of incomes. New social programmes have saved millions from falling into poverty. Medium-term growth prospects hinge on reforms to expand social protection and boost productivity.

Over the last decades, Colombia enjoyed remarkable economic stability due to sound macroeconomic policies. A track record for prudent fiscal management, underpinned by a recently improved fiscal rule, a successful inflation targeting regime and a flexible exchange rate will lay the grounds for a continuous rebound of domestic demand. Unemployment has declined and now stands 1.5 percentage above the level of late 2019 (Figure 1). Still, deep structural challenges in the labour market remain, including high informality. Informal workers, women and youth were particularly hit during the pandemic, exacerbating long-standing inequalities.

Figure 1. The labour market has recovered

Source: DANE.

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The fiscal rule was rightly suspended during 2020 and 2021 to provide exceptional fiscal support to the economy and vulnerable households in particular. Public debt has risen by 13.5 percentage points of GDP and financing costs have risen. A recent fiscal reform will pave the way for a gradual fiscal adjustment, but part of the adjustment planned for the next two years has not yet been implemented (Figure 2). Under current plans, debt is projected to stabilise at around 59% of GDP over the next ten years, 8.5 percentage points above pre-pandemic levels. This implies lower fiscal buffers than in the past and leaves less space to react to potential future adverse events.

Figure 2. A fiscal adjustment is planned

Source: OECD calculations based on Min Hacienda (2021).

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Tax revenues of only 20% of GDP are insufficient to meet rising social demands while preserving necessary public investment in infrastructure, education and health. Personal income taxes, which only 5% of Colombians pay, are the principal explanation behind this low tax collection (Figure 3), while widespread tax expenditures and tax evasion curtail revenues across all tax areas. High business taxes reduce investment incentives, particularly as the business sector will finance a significant part of the planned fiscal adjustment. However, the political economy of tax reform is complex, as previous plans to increase income and consumption taxes were widely opposed by social unrest in May 2021.

Looking ahead, enhanced social benefits will continue into 2022 and further underpin private consumption (Table 1). Infrastructure investment is buoying investment, while strong commodity prices and improving prospects in the main trading partners are supporting exports. Inflation has risen lately, but inflation expectations remain well-anchored. The Central Bank should continue the gradual withdrawal of monetary support to the extent that inflationary pressures intensify.

Table 1. A strong recovery is underway

	2021	2022	2023
Gross domestic product	9.5	5.5	3.1
Private consumption	13.6	5.6	3.8
Gross fixed capital formation	8.3	4.6	6.5
Exports	11.5	10.9	6.9
Imports	27.7	10.6	6.0
Unemployment rate	13.7	11.8	10.7
Consumer prices (end of period)	5.6	4.6	3.3
Headline fiscal balance (% of GDP)	-7.1	-6.1	-4.6
Primary fiscal balance (% of GDP)	-3.7	-2.6	-1.3
Public debt (gross, % of GDP)	63.8	62.5	62.4

Source: OECD Economic Outlook database.

In a longer view, however, both growth and social inclusion are trapped by weak policy settings that prevent firms from growing and becoming more productive while precluding more than half of Colombia’s income earners from formal jobs and social protection. Productivity growth has been weak for two decades, including relative to regional peers and investment has weakened. Unless both can be raised, potential growth will be lower than in past decades, as support from commodity prices and demographics is vanishing.

Low and declining competitive pressures in a number of sectors are one reason behind weak productivity. Regulations hamper firm entry, while informality of firms and jobs creates both an uneven playing field and incentives for firms to remain small. Besides these domestic factors, tariff and non-tariff barriers, with high tariff dispersion and a rise in peak rates, stand in the way of stronger engagement in international trade and investment flows. Exports remain concentrated in a few commodity sectors and trading partners.

Expanding social protection and reducing informality are key priorities

Colombia has one of the highest levels of poverty, income inequality and labour market informality in Latin America. Despite a strong crisis response, social benefits do little to alleviate inequalities, and most social spending goes to the non-poor, particularly in the case of pensions.

Over 60% of workers have informal jobs and no access to social security benefits except health. A key factor behind labour informality are high non-wage costs that finance formal-sector social security benefits and a high minimum wage whose level is close to the median wage. These put a high price on formal jobs and generates a vicious circle that perpetuates informality and exclusion.

Delinking access to social protection from worker status in the labour market is the key challenge to break the current duality in incomes and job quality. A basic and universal level of social protection should be made available to all Colombians by merging parallel schemes for cash transfers, pensions and health, combined with a more comprehensive set of benefits that can support those who can contribute more. These reforms will require shifting much of the financing of social protection gradually away from contributions on labour towards general taxation.

Figure 3. Few people pay income taxes

Note: The chart shows the income level as of which people start paying personal income taxes, relative to average wages.

Source: OECD Taxing Wages 2021.

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More equal opportunities in education are also key to raise formality and improve intergenerational mobility, which is particularly low in Colombia (Figure 4). After one of the longest schools closures in the region and in the OECD, the severe education inequalities that existed before the pandemic are likely to widen. For students from vulnerable households, virtual classrooms did little to compensate for the absence of physical classes, given stark differences in digitalisation. Early drop-out rates in secondary education, typically concentrated among students from disadvantaged socio-economic backgrounds, have risen in 2020, and are likely to rise further. Early childhood is when many of the basic skills for successful learning later in life are acquired, but pre-school education is available to only 50% of children between ages 3 and 5.

Figure 4. Intergenerational mobility is low

Source: OECD Income Distribution Database.

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Governance challenges persist

Colombia has made significant progress with recent anti-corruption efforts, but high corruption perceptions still point to significant governance challenges. Improvements in governance are key for raising public trust in institutions, which is low in Colombia (Figure 5).

Unlike many OECD countries, Colombia does not have a dedicated whistle-blower protection law. Typical high-risk areas for corruption include infrastructure projects and public procurement. A recently created centralised public purchasing body holds potential to reduce the scope for illicit behaviour, but direct purchases still represent around 70% of total public procurement transactions. Transparency in the interactions between interest groups and policymakers is not regulated by law.

Political campaigns are highly dependent on private funds in Colombia, given the limited scope of public campaign financing. This creates strong incentives for candidates to promise post-election favours and may affect spending efficiency.

Fighting deforestation is key for sustainability

Greenhouse gas emissions are relatively low in per capita terms, but have been trending upward over the last decade. Reaching emission targets will depend crucially on advances in the fight against deforestation, a main source of emissions.

Colombia has committed to an ambitious target of zero net deforestation by 2030. Nonetheless, deforestation has risen in recent years, by as much as 8% in 2020. Remarkable institutional efforts to curb deforestation have included a satellite-based early detection system, but limited resources for enforcement action only allow following up on a minor fraction of detections.

Stronger incentives for the use of non-fossil sources of energy could reduce emissions. A recently introduced carbon tax is set at a comparatively low level and covers only 25% of domestic emissions. The revenues it raises only barely exceed spending on fossil fuel subsidies, which should be phased out. Electricity generation capacity is based to 70% on renewable sources, making Colombia one of the pioneers in this area.

Figure 5. Few people have trust in government

Source: World Gallup Poll.

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Main findings and key recommendations

 

MAIN FINDINGS	KEY RECOMMENDATIONS
Refining macroeconomic policies and reforming taxation
Public debt will be permanently higher than before the pandemic, reducing the fiscal space to react to shocks. Although activity has seen a solid rebound, employment remains below pre-pandemic levels.	Reduce the expansionary fiscal stance gradually as of 2022 to rebuild fiscal buffers while continuing exceptional income support until the labour market recovers.
Tax revenues of only 20% of GDP, low even for regional standards, are insufficient to finance social demands and public investment. The tax system does little to reduce high income inequalities, with a minor role for personal income taxes and a strong reliance on corporate income taxes. The tax system is also excessively complex, with multiple special regimes and tax expenditures leading to significant revenue losses, while penalising growth and investment.	Raise more revenues from personal income taxes by lowering the income threshold where taxpayers start paying income taxes, eliminating exemptions and strengthening rate progressivity. Reduce corporate tax expenditures while reducing the tax burden and tax distortions for businesses. Reduce the scope of VAT tax expenditures while compensating low-income households through social benefits.
Corruption reduces public spending efficiency, creates an uneven playing field and exacerbates inequalities. Colombia has no dedicated whistle-blower protection law, in contrast to most OECD countries and political campaigns are highly dependent on private financing sources.	Continue the fight against corruption by establishing a dedicated whistle blower protection law and imposing stricter limits for private campaign contributions.
Inflation has begun to rise despite significant idle capacity and it is not clear to what extent these inflationary pressures are temporary.	Gradually increase interests rates if inflationary pressures intensify.
Progress in vaccination has been steady, but is lagging behind other countries in the region.	Accelerate the pace of vaccinations against COVID-19.
Fostering a more inclusive recovery
Informal employment affects 60% of workers. This precludes them from access to social security, while reducing productivity and tax revenues.	Establish a comprehensive strategy to foster formalisation, including lower non-wage costs, stronger enforcement and improvements in tax administration.
High charges on formal labour hold back formal job creation and sustain high labour informality.	Reduce the tax burden on formal labour income by gradually shifting the financing burden of social protection towards general taxation.
The pandemic has exposed major gaps in social protection, particularly among informal workers. Different programmes are highly fragmented.	Merge existing cash transfer schemes into a single cash benefit for poor households while maintaining conditionalities for families.
Half the population above 65 is not covered by pension benefits of any kind. Contributory pension benefits are regressive, with competing schemes providing different benefits for the same career history and particularly low coverage among women.	Create a basic non-contributory universal pension benefit and merge existing contributory pension schemes into a single mandatory contributory scheme complementing the basic universal pension.
Formal workers pay contributions for public health insurance, while informal workers get almost the same benefit package for free.	Merge the two public healthcare systems into a single system, financed through general taxation revenues.
Early school drop-out has risen sharply due to the pandemic, particularly among children from disadvantaged socio-economic backgrounds.	Provide targeted support to those out of school and those at risk of falling behind, including through full-day schooling and school meals.
Strengthening productivity and competition
Productivity growth has fallen behind regional peers and competition is weak. Regulations on product markets and administrative barriers restrict market entry and hamper competition.	Reduce domestic regulatory barriers to entrepreneurship and market entry.
Trade openness is low. Non-tariff barriers have risen sharply, while high peak tariffs afford high protection to some domestic producers, often characterised by low productivity.	Reduce tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade, starting with those items where current barriers are highest.
Making growth more sustainable and greener
Deforestation has risen and reaching current objectives for reducing greenhouse gas emission will require stronger declines in deforestation.	Increase resources dedicated to anti-deforestation enforcement activities to follow up on more cases of detected deforestation.
A patchy land registry is one motive behind deforestation, often with the aim of obtaining a land title in the future.	Accelerate progress in expanding the land registry, especially into remote areas.