The U.S. economy in 2022 continued to navigate an unprecedented global pandemic and weathered an additional price shock to energy and food caused by the large-scale aggression of Russia against Ukraine. Despite these and other challenges, the economy remained resilient with moderate output growth, strong employment growth, and inflation that peaked and then started to moderate late in the year.
The large-scale aggression of Russia against Ukraine in February created acute supply constraints on energy, food, and other commodities that raised inflation globally. In addition, in the first half of the year, COVID-19 continued to weigh on economies across the world, especially when its Omicron variant caused cases and fatalities to surge in the United States and abroad. Already grappling with transitory inflation after the height of the pandemic, the U.S. economy witnessed a four decades-high level of inflation, peaking at 9.1% in June of 2022.
2022 saw a pivot from many years of accommodative financial conditions. Monetary policy turned to fighting inflation and fiscal policy focused on strategies to complement that fight, while also working to guide the economy to stable and steady growth in 2022 and in the future. Even before the year began, government spending and deficits fell closer to pre-pandemic trends. As a result of the historic pace of U.S. economic and labour market recovery, the federal government spent about USD 1 trillion less on pandemic and economic support in 2022 than in 2021, slashing the U.S. federal budget in half (U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data, 2022[1]).In March, the Federal Reserve began to reverse its asset purchase programme and started what became a swift series of interest rate hikes; stock markets and residential investment declined quickly. Faced with tightening monetary conditions, the U.S. economy showed signs of adjustment. GDP growth slowed, with a 6.5% increase in nominal GDP in the fourth quarter compared to 7.7% in the third quarter of 2022 (U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2022[2]). Some measures of labour market tightness and inflation began to moderate, with inflation showing an easing at the end of the year.
Borrowing, including business loan originations and commercial and industry (C&I) loans, continued to grow at a slower pace in line with GDP, driven by an increase in consumer spending and companies increasing inventories. Tightening of lending conditions occurred gradually throughout the year and was most widely reported for premiums charged on riskier loans, costs of credit lines, and spreads of loan rates over the cost of funds. U.S. household and business indebtedness and debt servicing ability remained stable, with the effect of rising interest rates being offset by higher business earnings (Board of Governors of the Federal Rserve System, SLOOS, 2023[3]).
While some economic indicators exhibited a modest response to rising interest rates, labour conditions and consumer spending were less affected. The labour market was characterized by an unemployment rate near a historically low level, robust payroll gains, a high level of job vacancies, and elevated nominal wage growth. The civilian unemployment rate was a stable 3.5% as of December 2022, and a consistently large number of job openings implied a continual imbalance between labour supply and labour demand (U.S. Department of Labor, 2023[4]). Growth in consumer spending was stronger than expected and could be attributed to the strong labour market and households spending down excess savings accumulated during the pandemic.
Though SMEs reported progress in achieving post-pandemic operational recovery, they were less optimistic regarding future business conditions. The U.S. Census Small Business Pulse Survey indicated that most small businesses had either returned to normal operations or expected to return to normal operations within two to three months, with the fastest expected recoveries occurring in the utilities and finance and insurance industries (U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, 2022[5]) . However, rising inflation and labour shortages following the pandemic hampered small business owners’ expectations of better business conditions. According to the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB), while SMEs recorded high levels of job openings, almost all of them reported few or no qualified candidates for the positions they were trying to fill. 75% of small business owners surveyed in the NFIB Optimism Index reported lower profit trends, most frequently attributed to a rise in the cost of materials. Nevertheless, 89% of owners reported that their credit needs were satisfied or that they were not interested in a loan (NFIB, 2023[6]) .
Following record-breaking growth in 2021, venture capital deal value decreased each quarter in 2022 for a year-over-year decline of 28.8%. This reflects increasing interest rates, less attractive risk-return profiles, and therefore a relatively lower upside potential for venture capital asset classes compared to years prior. Late-stage deal value suffered the biggest hit of roughly 35%, while total angel and seed deal value actually increased (Pitchbook, NVCA, 2023[7]) .