Governments and the oil and gas industry need to take urgent steps to meet methane targets, including the agreement reached at COP28 to “accelerate and substantially reduce non-carbon-dioxide emissions globally, including in particular methane emissions by 2030”. However, the cost of rolling out methane emission reduction technology and practices across the upstream oil and gas sector is significant. The IEA estimates that USD 75 billion in cumulative capital and operating expenditure is required globally over the period to 2030 to achieve sufficient reductions in oil and gas methane emissions. Furthermore, the majority of this expenditure (USD 45 billion) will be required in low- and middle-income countries, where sources of finance are likely to be more limited (IEA, 2023[1]; IEA, 2024[2]). These financing challenges may be exacerbated where countries are heavily indebted and fiscally constrained and in jurisdictions where facilities are owned and operated by smaller independent companies and NOCs. According to the IEA, approximately USD 36 billion is required to address methane emissions from NOCs who are responsible for the majority of emissions in Eurasia and the Middle East and around USD 12 billion is required for methane abatement at facilities owned by NOCs in low- and lower middle-income countries (IEA, 2023[1]).
Although the oil and gas sector has the largest abatement potential, given the possibility to achieve quick wins with existing cost-effective abatement solutions methane abatement finance appears to be disproportionately low if compared to the needs of the oil and gas sector. For example, a recent study on methane financing across multiple sectors found that the fossil fuel sector (including oil, gas and coal) received less than 1% of total abatement finance in 2021/22. According to the Climate Policy Institute, the oil and gas sector requires USD 7.9 billion in methane abatement investment per year by 2030 (de Aragão Fernandes et al., 2023[3]). However, estimates of external sources of finance targeted at reducing methane in the fossil fuel sector (including oil, gas and coal) total less than USD 1 billion (IEA, 2024[2]). This considerable funding gap is driven by several factors, including a lack of awareness of investment opportunities, a lack of viable projects, projects not reaching an investment threshold, and a hesitancy among investors on financing projects in the fossil fuel sector (Alberti and Naran, 2023[4]).
Article 2.1c of the Paris Agreement calls for “making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and climate-resilient development” (UNFCCC, 2015[5]). The concept of “climate alignment” of investments and financing is based on this provision. However, there is a risk for climate aligned finance to create a “climate investment trap” if access to finance is precluded to oil and gas producing countries that are most in need of support to decarbonise their economies and shift to more sustainable, climate-resilient development pathways (Marcel et al., 2023[6]). To keep the collective target of limiting the average global temperature increase to 1.5°C within reach, decarbonisation measures that can bring drastic reductions in emission intensity will need to be financed across all sectors of the economy, including oil and gas projects. This means that finance for the climate transition must take a dynamic and forward-looking approaches, while avoiding static views limited to what is already sustainable today (OECD, 2022[7]).
In this respect, it is worth emphasising that there is no agreed or unique way of downscaling the global temperature goal to economic sectors, actors, or countries, which can and will decarbonise following different pathways that are nationally determined and follow different trajectories (Noels and Jachnik, 2022[8]). In addition, the notions of climate mitigation alignment and consistency not only relate to scaling up finance for activities that are already Paris-aligned, but also to financing activities and economic sectors that need to undergo and implement changes to transition towards net-zero emissions, especially in high-emitting and hard-to-abate sectors (Noels and Jachnik, 2022[8]). Lastly, GHG emissions reduction is just one amongst complementary alignment-related metrics that need to be considered to make finance consistent with climate mitigation and resilience in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty in line with Article 2 of the Paris Agreement (Noels and Jachnik, 2022[8]; UNFCCC SCF, 2021[9]).
Governments and industry need to explore several sources of finance in order to mobilise the funding required to drive methane reductions at the pace and scale needed to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. Alongside industry finance, other avenues are emerging to increase financing for methane abatement. These include direct public funding, international emissions pricing schemes and sustainability-linked financing (i.e. bonds, debt for climate swaps).