The Climate Action Monitor 2024

1. How far are countries from achieving national and global mitigation objectives?

The Paris Agreement has been instrumental in advancing global efforts to address climate change. The Agreement aims to limit global warming well below 2ºC by the end of the century and to “pursue efforts to limit temperature increase to 1.5°C” (UNFCCC, 2015[1]). To achieve this objective, countries or Parties to the Agreement commit to progressively reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). As of August 2024, 195 Parties had communicated their NDCs with 110 Parties (109 countries and the European Union) pledging to achieve net-zero emissions, and 96 aiming for this target by 2050.

Current commitments are not ambitious enough to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals. Global GHG emissions must be limited to 33 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Gt CO₂e) by 2030 to limit global warming to 1.5°C and 41 Gt CO₂e to limit global warming to 2°C. However, global emissions are projected to reach 57 Gt CO₂e by 2030 based on policies implemented as of 2024 (UNEP, 2024[2]). Moreover, even if countries fulfil their unconditional 2030 commitments, GHG emissions are estimated to increase to at least 55 Gt CO₂e in 2030. Similarly, global GHG emissions must be limited to 8 Gt CO₂e by 2050, yet the collective net-zero commitments would lead to at least 21 Gt CO₂e by that date.

Countries must increase their ambitions significantly and ensure the effectiveness of their policy effort. Estimates of GHG emissions indicate a potential average temperature rise of 1.7 to 1.9°C by the end of the century under the most optimistic scenario (UNEP, 2024[2]). Such a scenario assumes the full implementation of current NDCs and net-zero commitments for both unconditional and conditional pledges.

Global GHG emissions increased in 2022 and 2023

Preliminary estimates suggest that global GHG emissions (including LULUCF) increased by 1.3% between 2022 and 2023 (UNEP, 2024[2]). In 2022, global GHG emissions, including emissions from international aviation and maritime sources and land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF),1 reached 55 Gt CO₂e. This represents a 0.3% increase from 2021 and a rise of around 9% compared to 2010.

Since their peak in 2005, GHG emissions in OECD countries have gradually declined, falling by 1.2% between 2021-22 and by 11% between 2010-22. They reached an estimated 13 Gt CO₂e in 2022. However, emissions from OECD partner countries have continued to rise, increasing by over 35% since 2010 and by 2% since 2021 (Figure 1.1).

Between 2021 and 2022, GHG emissions (including LULUCF) from major OECD emitters such as the United States, the European Union and Japan decreased by 1.7%, 2.5% and 2.1%, respectively, indicating a continued downward trend, although this was partially affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.2 Similarly, large non-OECD countries, like Brazil and South Africa, experienced reductions in emissions by 0.9% and 3%, respectively. However, emissions increased in 22 countries during this period3 with a concerning surge in large-emitting countries such as Indonesia and India, which experienced increases of 12.4% and 5.1%, respectively (IPAC Dashboard).

GHG emission reduction commitments are not consistent with the Paris Agreement temperature goals

NDC targets are not ambitious enough

Ambitious mitigation commitments and their effective implementation are essential for meeting the Paris Agreement temperature goals. GHG emission pathways consistent with these goals would require reducing current emissions (55 Gt CO₂e) by at least 40% to limit global warming to 1.5 °C and by 36% to achieve the 2°C goal (Figure 1.2). Moreover, as recent estimates suggest, global GHG emissions rose by 1.3% between 2022 and 2023, which implies that current global emissions need to be decreased by a bigger extent by 2030 to achieve the 1.5 and 2°C temperature goals respectively (UNEP, 2024[2]).

In 2022, OECD and OECD partner countries covered by IPAC collectively accounted for around 80% of global GHG emissions, making their emission reductions a significant indicator of global climate policy action.4 However, as of August 2024, the unconditional NDCs of OECD and OECD partner countries are projected to result in a reduction of just 4 Gt CO₂e by 2030 compared to 2022 levels. This represents an overall commitment to reduce aggregate emissions by 14% by 20305 with OECD countries aiming for a 29% reduction and OECD partner countries only a 5.7% reduction.6

These GHG emission targets set by OECD and partner countries are not ambitious enough to achieve the Paris Agreement temperature goals. Even if these targets are met, global GHG emissions are projected to remain around 55 Gt CO₂e in 2030, well above the 33 Gt CO₂e level required for 1.5°C and the 41 Gt CO₂e emissions necessary for the 2°C goal. This highlights the significant ambition gap between current commitments and the emission reductions necessary to achieve the Paris Agreement temperature goals.

Net zero targets are not ambitious enough and most targets are not legally binding

An increasing number of countries are adopting net-zero targets for 2050 or later, with the count rising from 105 to 110 countries since last year. These commitments now represent 88% of global GHG emissions, up from 83%.7

However, estimated global GHG emissions even under full compliance with these net-zero targets indicate that total GHG emissions still fall short of aligning with the Paris Agreement temperature goals. Collectively, these commitments would result in global emissions of around 21 Gt CO₂e in 2050, significantly exceeding the required emissions of 8 Gt CO₂e to limit global warming to 1.5 ºC and just above the emissions threshold for the 2ºC goal (Figure 1.3 and Figure 1.4).

Figure 1.3. Current GHG emissions reduction targets have an ambition gap

GHG emission reduction targets are not consistent with Paris Agreement temperature goals

Note: “Rest of the world (w/o net-zero)” refers to the rest of the world emissions for countries that do not have a net zero pledge yet.

Source: See Annex for details of the methodology.

Moreover, the lack of legally binding net-zero targets in most countries poses a risk that these commitments may not be fully achieved. Only 27 countries and the EU (28 parties)8, representing 16% of global GHG emissions, have enshrined their net-zero targets into legislation. The rest of the countries have pledged net-zero commitments through Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategies (LT-LEDS), NDCs or declarations at high-level gatherings like the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conferences of the Parties (Figure 1.4).9

Box 1.1. GHG emissions datasets at the OECD: Work in progress

The International Programme for Action on Climate (IPAC) provides foundational data and indicators to support countries’ policy choices and contributes to several important components of OECD work on climate change. In addition to Net Zero+, for example, IPAC provides inputs to the Inclusive Forum on Carbon Mitigation Approaches and to Economic Surveys, among others. In so doing, it aims to develop a coherent and official estimate of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and targets. In this context, two working papers have been published (noted below) and a third is in review.

GHG Emission Trends and Targets (GETT): Harmonised quantification methodology and indicators (https://doi.org/10.1787/decef216-en). At the centre of the Paris Agreement are Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that establish countries’ plans to mitigate GHG emissions. However, NDCs differ across countries in terms of target types, coverage of sectors and gases. Developing countries may also distinguish between unconditional and conditional targets requiring international support. This makes it challenging to assess progress on mitigation commitments. This paper, published in March 2024, develops a methodology that harmonises countries’ 2030 mitigation targets in physical units and provides clarity on sector and gas coverage. As such, it complements the efforts of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and facilitates the evaluation and monitoring of targets. The results are used to develop the GETT indicators for non-EU countries and the EU-27 covered under IPAC.

Greenhouse gas emissions data: Concepts and data availability (https://doi.org/10.1787/b3e6c074-en). GHG emissions data are essential for tracking progress towards the Paris Agreement’s global temperature goals. In addition to the emissions inventories based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change guidelines, other GHG emissions datasets cater to different users and policy objectives. This paper explores the conceptual difference across approaches and presents and evaluates available OECD GHG emissions datasets. It pays special attention to coverage issues and data gaps. Finally, the paper outlines several steps to enhance data coverage and quality as part of a programme to develop a comprehensive and integrated GHG emissions dataset.

New momentum for net-zero pledges in international aviation and shipping

In 2022, a significant global sectoral advancement was the adoption of a net-zero carbon emissions target for international aviation by 2050, endorsed by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). The International Air and Transport Association (IATA) projects that about 10 billion passengers will fly in 2050, requiring a minimum abatement of 1.8 Gt CO₂ in that year. The collective abatement required between now and 2050 is estimated at 21.2 Gt CO₂ (IATA, 2021[3]). The key to ICAO’s commitment lies in the development of the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA).

In 2023, member states of the International Maritime Organization also committed to reach net-zero emissions “by around 2050” for the international maritime sector (IMO, 2023[4]).10 Together, the air and maritime sectors contribute to roughly 4-5% of global GHG emissions, with each accounting for 2% of global energy-related CO₂ emissions (IEA, 2023[5]).

GHG emissions are embedded in trade

GHG emissions embedded in trade play a significant role in the disparity of GHG emissions growth rates between OECD countries and partner countries. This discrepancy is linked to the outsourcing of carbon-intensive production to other countries, potentially leading to a global increase in GHG emissions. Such outsourcing can lead to carbon leakage, undermining environmental and climate policies if countries adopt less carbon-efficient techniques and less stringent environmental standards in manufacturing. Contrasting information on emissions based on both consumption and production helps identify the extent of this outsourcing.

Both consumption- and production-based emissions (excluding LULUCF) in OECD countries peaked in 2007 and have been declining. However, consumption-based emissions are considerably higher than production-based emissions in OECD countries. This disparity can be partially attributed to the imports of carbon-intensive goods from OECD partner countries (Figure 1.5). In contrast, production-based emissions are greater in these countries than ones based on consumption, and both have been continuously rising.

Countries continue to decouple emissions from economic and population growth

Regardless of the sources for GHG emissions, the fundamental strategy for mitigation lies in decoupling emissions from economic and population growth. To measure the progress of decoupling, two complementary indicators compare intensity of countries’ emissions: GHG emissions intensity per capita and GHG emissions intensity per unit of GDP.11

Per capita emissions have continued to decrease in OECD countries while increasing in OECD partner countries. Between 2010-22, OECD countries reduced emissions per capita from 11.8 tonnes to 9.6 tonnes.12 Following a small uptake, mostly related to the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021, this decline continued in 2022. However, although still lower than those of the OECD, per capita emissions in OECD partner countries have been steadily increasing since the early 2000s, reaching 6.2 tonnes per capita (Figure 1.6).

GHG emissions per unit of GDP have declined significantly since 1990 for both the OECD and OECD partner countries. In 2022, OECD countries continued this downward trend, while the decrease stalled in OECD partner countries. Although the pace of reduction was higher in OECD partner countries between 1990 and 2017, this trend changed from 2017. This, in turn, widened the disparity in emissions intensity between OECD and partner countries. By 2022, emissions intensity in OECD partner countries was still more than twice as high as it was in OECD countries (Figure 1.7).

The principal driver of GHG emissions is fossil fuel consumption

Emissions sources

Identifying emissions sources helps design targeted climate mitigation strategies (Chapter 3). These sources vary considerably across countries, depending on factors such as the level of development, natural conditions like weather patterns, available resources, distance to markets, economic sectors, energy resources and land use.

In general, the emissions profiles of OECD and OECD partner countries are similar. Energy contributes around 79% of emissions in OECD countries, with electricity/heat production and transport representing around 54% in 2022. In OECD partner countries, energy contributes around 74%, with electricity and manufacturing representing 54%. However, these total averages are influenced by the importance of China’s GHG emissions in the manufacturing sector. Excluding China from the OECD partners group would imply that Energy contributes around 51% of emissions with electricity/heat production and transport representing around 41% and agriculture representing 15%.

Similarly, emissions from industrial processes represent 8% and 12% in OECD and OECD partner countries, respectively, while agriculture accounts for 10% for both country groups (Figure 1.8 and Figure 1.9). These aggregate percentages hide significant cross-country variation in emissions sources, suggesting the need for tailored policy approaches. The IPAC Dashboard shows country-specific information on these indicators. Carbon dioxide remains the predominant GHG in both OECD and OECD partner countries, accounting for 79% and 78% of emissions, respectively.

Key drivers in emission source sectors

Although the reliance of the global energy supply on fossil fuels declined between 2012 and 2020, fossil fuel combustion remains the primary source of CO₂ emissions (Figure 1.10). Substantial investments in low-carbon energy sources and energy efficiency measures are critical to decarbonise the energy sector.

In 2023, the deployment of renewable electricity continued its robust growth, yet it needs to further accelerate to reach the COP28 pledge of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030. Decarbonising electricity production and electrifying end-uses represent key strategies for decarbonising the energy network. Most renewable electricity capacity added in 2023 stemmed from solar photovoltaic and wind sources. They experienced growth rates of 85% and 60%, respectively, jointly adding 540 GW of capacity (Figure 1.11). Despite this progress, countries need to ramp up deployment efforts to fulfil the COP28 pledge. While China and most OECD countries are making significant strides in renewables deployment, other countries are lagging (IEA, 2024[6]).

Reducing emissions from the transport sector requires both reducing the number of passenger cars and switching from internal combustion engines vehicles to electric vehicles (EVs). Globally, sales of passenger cars remain high, with over 75 million units sold in 2023. Compared to 2022, EV sales grew by around 35% in 2023, reaching 14 million vehicles. This represents more than 18% of total passenger car sales in 2023, up from 14% in 2022 and 4% in 2020 sales (Figure 1.12).

Achieving net-zero targets and other environmental objectives such as biodiversity protection requires tackling deforestation, especially primary forests, in resource-rich countries. In 2023, 3.7 million hectares of primary forest were lost (Figure 1.13). Since 2002, total global primary forest has fallen by 6%.

Alongside energy combustion, deforestation remains a predominant global source of GHG emissions, albeit with a varied contribution across countries. Therefore, tailored policies will be essential to meet national mitigation objectives. This implies that countries do not necessarily need to prioritise the sectors that are major global drivers or uniformly reduce emissions across all sectors to achieve climate targets. Instead, policy choices should be consistent with countries’ unique circumstances and capacities (IPAC Dashboard). As will be discussed in Chapter 3, there are general trends and common drivers, but no one-size-fits-all policy for all countries.

GHG emissions, economic growth and material use

Reducing GHG emissions by focusing on individual emissions sources is not sufficient because economic and population growth often outweigh efficiency gains and progress in decoupling emissions from production activities. In the long run, mitigating climate change and improving human welfare will rely on reducing material and energy demand across all sectors. Most OECD countries have managed to decouple GHG emissions from GDP growth. On average, GDP per capita increased by 57% from 1990 to 2022, while GHG emissions per capita fell by 26% in the same period. This progress can be attributed to the increasing decarbonisation of production with a ratio of GHG/GDP emissions (i.e. emissions intensity of the economy) declining to 0.4. Put another way, the production of a unit of GDP now generates four times fewer GHG emissions than in the 1990s (Figure 1.14).

Driven by China’s economic success, OECD partner countries have experienced substantial GDP growth – over five times the growth registered since 1990. In the same period, GHG emissions per capita increased by only 42% while GHG emissions per unit of GDP fell to 0.3 (Figure 1.14). These impressive results indicate that economic growth and increased welfare can coexist with decreasing GHG emissions intensity. However, relying solely on further gains in energy efficiency will not be enough to put OECD partner countries on a path to net-zero targets. Advancing towards the energy transition is critical to achieve their mitigation objectives (OECD, 2023[7]).

Material use must be addressed to reduce GHG emissions effectively. In 2022, total domestic material consumption reached 157 Gt, an increase of nearly 2% from 2021 and nearly 30% since 2010. Moreover, the extraction of materials is projected to surpass 111 Gt in 2030 and 167 Gt in 2060 (OECD, 2019[8]). To align with the goals of the Paris Agreement, it is essential to transition towards a more circular economy by reducing the material footprint: this is where GHG emissions are ultimately embedded (Figure 1.15).

References

[3] IATA (2021), “Net zero carbon emissions by 2050”, Press Release, 4 October, International Air Transportation Association, Montreal, https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pressroom-archive/2021-releases/2021-10-04-03/.

[6] IEA (2024), Clean Energy Market Monitor – March 2024, IEA, Paris, https://www.iea.org/reports/clean-energy-market-monitor-march-2024.

[5] IEA (2023), Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2023, IEA, Paris, https://www.iea.org/reports/tracking-clean-energy-progress-2023.

[4] IMO (2023), “Revised GHG reduction strategy for global shipping adopted”, Press Release, 7 July, International Maritime Organization, London, https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/PressBriefings/pages/Revised-GHG-reduction-strategy-for-global-shipping-adopted-.aspx.

[9] OECD (2024), IPAC Dashboard, https://www.oecd.org/climate-action/ipac/dashboard.

[7] OECD (2023), “GHG emissions from fuel combustion (summary)”, Fuel Combustion Statistics: Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Energy, (database), https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-energy-data-explorer (accessed on 1 August 2024).

[8] OECD (2019), Global Material Resources Outlook to 2060: Economic Drivers and Environmental Consequences, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264307452-en.

[2] UNEP (2024), Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please! With a massive gap between rhetoric and reality, countries draft new climate commitments, https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2024.

[10] UNEP (2023), Emissions Gap Report 2023: Broken Record – Temperatures hit new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions (again), United Nations Environment Programme, https://doi.org/10.59117/20.500.11822/43922.

[1] UNFCCC (2015), The Paris Agreement, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat, Geneva.

Notes

← 1.  In this report, to present NDC targets including national LULUCF emissions, as is the usual convention, and be consistent with UNEP’s total GHG emission estimates, we perform an adjustment consistent with (UNEP, 2023[10]), namely subtracting national LULUCF emissions and adding global LULUCF emissions. This adjustment reflects the different approaches taken by countries to estimate national LULUCF emissions from managed vis-à-vis unmanaged lands. To ensure consistency, UNEP estimates global emissions by aggregating GHG emissions from national inventories excluding LULUCF, and then adds a global estimate of GHG emissions from LULUCF for managed lands, this is referred to as a “bookkeeping” adjustment.

← 2.  Percentage changes are calculated using (OECD, 2024[9])

← 3.  Data are provided by PRIMAP and adjusted by the OECD.

← 4.  GHG emissions are estimated considering total aggregate country emissions including LULUCF, that is not including international bunkers and LULUCF bookkeeping estimates.

← 5.  GHG emissions inventories are compiled following territory- and production-based emissions principles. This means that, in most countries’ cases, total GHG emissions does not include emissions from international transport. In addition, emissions from consumption of products produced in other territories or emissions from transporting these products are not included.

← 6.  In the IPAC Dashboard, GHG emissions targets are presented in scope defined by the countries’ NDCs (including or excluding LULUCF, gases, AR) for aggregation; an adjustment was made to have a common scope considering all gases.

← 7.  Dominica, Georgia, Kenya, Micronesia and Mexico have been added to last year’s count.

← 8.  Australia, Austria, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Denmark, EU (27), Fiji, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Japan, Korea, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Maldives, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.

← 9.  There are differences with other databases that also aim to identify the number of countries that have pledged net-zero targets. One of these is an IEA database, which presents differences with respect to some countries, in particular Brunei, Comoros, Cook Islands, Croatia, Ghana, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Liechtenstein, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Tunisia, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, Vatican City (which IEA does not cover), and Mauritius and Morocco (which IPAC does not cover).

← 10.  Often countries’ NDC targets do not cover international transport. Thus, these targets strengthen the commitments communicated through NDCs.

← 11.  Although focused on CO₂ emissions from energy, the former provides a measure of emissions intensity relative to total population; the latter, focusing on GHG emissions, provides a measure of the decarbonisation of the economy. Both measures provide insights into the relative emissions contribution of a country and its long-term emissions path.

← 12.  Data is based on adjusted data from PRIMAP, see Annex 1, differences in total emissions from last year’s CAM2023 are related to different methodologies.