The Paris Agreement has been instrumental in advancing global efforts to address climate change. The Agreement aims to limit global warming well below 2ºC by the end of the century and to “pursue efforts to limit temperature increase to 1.5°C” (UNFCCC, 2015[1]). To achieve this objective, countries or Parties to the Agreement commit to progressively reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). As of August 2024, 195 Parties had communicated their NDCs with 110 Parties (109 countries and the European Union) pledging to achieve net-zero emissions, and 96 aiming for this target by 2050.
Current commitments are not ambitious enough to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals. Global GHG emissions must be limited to 33 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Gt CO2e) by 2030 to limit global warming to 1.5°C and 41 Gt CO2e to limit global warming to 2°C. However, global emissions are projected to reach 57 Gt CO2e by 2030 based on policies implemented as of 2024 (UNEP, 2024[2]). Moreover, even if countries fulfil their unconditional 2030 commitments, GHG emissions are estimated to increase to at least 55 Gt CO2e in 2030. Similarly, global GHG emissions must be limited to 8 Gt CO2e by 2050, yet the collective net-zero commitments would lead to at least 21 Gt CO2e by that date.
Countries must increase their ambitions significantly and ensure the effectiveness of their policy effort. Estimates of GHG emissions indicate a potential average temperature rise of 1.7 to 1.9°C by the end of the century under the most optimistic scenario (UNEP, 2024[2]). Such a scenario assumes the full implementation of current NDCs and net-zero commitments for both unconditional and conditional pledges.