This chapter describes the context and aims of the study of the future of teaching in Flanders and provides an overview of the methodology used.
Constructing Scenarios for the Future of Teaching in Flanders
Educational Research and Innovation
Abstract
Trends in both international and national student assessments have caused a sense of urgency and agreement on the need for reform among stakeholders in the Flemish Community of Belgium (hereafter: Flanders) education system, but with much debate on what this may look like (Shewbridge and Köster, 2021[1]). There is a general agreement that a certain degree of change is required to keep up with changing demands (Brinckman and Versluys, 2021[2]). Results from the OECD’s Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) have pointed to concerns of equity within the Flemish system and declining average performance in reading, mathematics and science. In the most recent round (PISA 2022), Flemish students still perform above the OECD average, although there was a considerable further drop in student performance on average – a phenomenon shared by many OECD education systems following the COVID-19 pandemic (OECD, 2023[3]; De Meyer et al., 2023[4]).
The 170,00 teachers employed in the Flemish education system (Flemish Ministry of Education and Training, 2023[5]) are directly affected by these debates and deliberations. The Flemish education system and - the teachers that work in it - has several strengths. Traditionally, teachers in Flanders have a high degree of autonomy and this stands out in international comparison. In general, Flemish teachers choose the teaching profession from an intrinsic motivation (Van Droogenbroeck et al., 2019[6]) and never before has Flanders employed as many teachers as it currently does (Flemish Ministry of Education and Training, 2023[7]). Flanders is also experiencing new groups of professionals currently outside of teaching who consider a teaching career for themselves in the form of side-entrants into the profession (Flemish Ministry of Education and Training, 2023[7]). Recent research suggests that the education sector, compared to the overall Flemish labour market and other service sectors, is performing well and that teaching offers comparatively positive job characteristics (De Witte et al., 2024[8]).
However, there is also a sense that the teaching profession is under pressure. As in many OECD countries, teachers perceive a decreased appreciation in society for their profession (OECD, 2019[9]; OECD, 2020[10]), and teacher shortages are a reality, especially in schools in more disadvantaged areas (Brinckman and Versluys, 2021[2]). There are also concerns about the high levels of stress and burn-out among teachers, which is often associated with the large amount of administrative burden that teachers experience in their work, as well as long working hours (Flemish Ministry of Education and Training, 2016[11]; Brinckman and Versluys, 2021[2]; Minnen, Verbeylen and Glorieux, 2018[12]; Tuytens et al., 2021[13]). Another policy focus is the need for the Flemish teaching profession to better reflect the diversity of the student population (Commissie Diversiteit, 2020[14]; Commissie van Wijzen, 2023[15]). A number of publications have provided insight into possible ways forward for the teaching profession in Flanders, suggesting changes and making recommendations on several levels (Commissie van Wijzen, 2023[15]; OECD, 2021[16]; Commissie Diversiteit, 2020[14]; Brinckman and Versluys, 2021[2]).
The Flemish Community of Belgium (Flanders) invited the OECD to undertake a study to progress thinking and start anticipating proposed changes for teacher professionalism, empowerment, and identity. In collaboration with the Flemish Ministry of Education and Training (hereafter: the Ministry) and a range of different stakeholders, the study was conducted between September 2023 and May 2024.
Building on the existing (Flemish and international) evidence base, and drawing on a diversity of perspectives, the study aims to explore a positive and sustainable narrative for the future of the teaching profession in Flanders. It aims to generate a set of preferred scenarios for the future of teaching, that provide visions for the mid to long term, and that are supported and designed by a broad group of stakeholders working in education.
Specifically, the study has three core research questions, which were formulated with the Flemish Ministry of Education and Training:
1. What is the core of being a teacher?
2. What do we expect from the teacher as a professional?
3. How can other professionals* support the teacher in this (*inside and outside the school, from other sectors and the wider community around the school)?
These questions were developed by the Ministry’s team as part of a focus on developing a long-term strategy for the future of the teaching profession in Flanders. Stakeholders considered how their preferred future scenario would address these research questions (see Chapter 4).
The study was performed through a structured process with four main activities (see Table 2.1. and Infographic 2.1.), advancing from preparation, to development, to field work activities and lastly to summarising the findings of the study. The project methodologies apply strategic foresight (Fuller, 2017[17]; Amsler and Facer, 2017[18]; Holfelder, 2019[19]). The process was contextualised to match the situation, expectations and needs of the Flemish education system.
As part of the process, the Ministry of Education and Training established a steering group, comprising representatives from key stakeholder groups such as teacher unions, school boards and higher education (see Annex C). The key objective of the steering group was to guide the study and provide feedback and comments on the draft publication. The OECD team presented updates on progress with the study and sought feedback from the steering group on three separate occasions.
Source: OECD study on New Professionalism and the Future of Teaching in Flanders
The different activities listed in Table 2.1. are described in more detail below. The methodology for the study is based on stakeholder participation: different stakeholders active in or around the education sector should be involved. Therefore, a mapping process of possible stakeholders was undertaken to identify who could be involved to participate during the different activities of the study.
Stakeholder groups involved in the study include practitioners (school leaders, teachers and student teachers), policy makers (school boards, community and department level), school support services (pedagogical advisory services, special education support, parental representational organisations), teacher unions and researchers (teacher education and other academics).
Infographic 2.1. provides a visual representation for the methodology of the study, including the relationships between key components.
Limitations
Participation in the study was voluntary. Snowball sampling was used to invite stakeholders. A set of possible participants were invited initially by the ministry and were invited to forward the invitation to colleagues and other relevant stakeholders. A limitation of this study is that the stakeholder participants in each of the study activities are not a representative sample but rather a group of willing people who offered to share their expertise.
Research seminar
To adapt the research tools and gain a better understanding of the Flemish context, an online research seminar was organised. Thirty researchers and teacher educators took part in this event. The research seminar provided feedback to develop both the ambition loops tool as well as the teacher personas tool, both were refined for use in the following phases of the study.
For the Ambition loops tool, including examining the research questions that were formulated by the Ministry of Education and Training, three additional “What if…” areas and 17 related ambition loops were added (see bolded statements in Table 2.2). Some original ambition loops (see McGrath (2023[20])) were deleted for manageability and some other statements were changed to improve their use in the Flemish educational context. Research relevant to the Flemish context was added throughout the Ambition loops framework. A list of Ambition loops that were selected during the workshops and further development of the study can be found in Annex B.
Note: Each “What if…” statement summarises a set of ambition loops. The bolded statements refer the new statements which were added following the Flanders research seminar.
Source: Adapted from McGrath, J. (2023), “What systematic connections should we have around schools to support the work of teachers?: Global lessons and the potential of ambition loops”, https://doi.org/10.1787/77de597c-en.
During the online research seminar, participants were also made familiar with the concept of teacher personas. Input was provided to think about several developments within society, schools, and the teacher workforce to consider when constructing the personas. This resulted in a ‘longlist’ of possible personas ideas to be studied. The participants shared research from Flanders to support the personas ideas. Table 2.3 provides an overview of the longlist, as well as examples of some of the motivations and arguments that were mentioned during the online research seminar, and the personas which were ultimately selected to construct further. The shortlist was undertaken by the OECD team and the team from the ministry. The purpose of shortlisting was to develop a manageable tool that covers as many ideas from the longlist as possible.
Note: The shortlist was restricted to six teacher personas for manageability in their use. The shortlisted teacher personas sought to cover as many ideas from the longlist as possible.
Source: OECD study on New Professionalism and the Future of Teaching in Flanders
After having selected the teacher personas, the second step of the study was to begin the actual development. Work began by identifying relevant categories or traits that would shape the different personas. The selected personas were developed as a set of two fictional characters, to highlight both positive and negative effects of the categories attributed to the set. The personas that were constructed for the purpose of this study are grounded in TALIS 2018 findings, research from Flanders and international research, including PISA 2022 findings. An overview of the developed categories that shape the personas can be seen in Figure 2.1. Chapter 3 presents the personas in a narrative fashion, with all elements linked to research in bold, and zooms in on a number of highlighted categories. The categories were highlighted because they (a) are indicative of features present in all of the personas (for example: the use of digital tools in schools) or (b) because they are of specific relevance to the context, character or feature of the specific persona described. Annex A presents an overview of the other categories that were derived and the research supporting these. Lastly, the personas have been captured in quotes responding to the scenarios that were developed in this study.
Note: a total of six sets of two persona types were constructed. Motivation is a category that is represented in all teacher personas, while the other categories have been represented in one or more sets of persona types.
Source: OECD study on New Professionalism and the Future of Teaching in Flanders
Stakeholder survey (data collection)
A next step in the study was to collect different perspectives on ambitions for the future of teaching from stakeholders in the education sector. Survey respondents from a variety of stakeholder groups were asked to rate each ambition and “What if…” statement on a scale of importance (Important/ Not important) and the level of change that they thought would be required to attain the suggested ambitions (Area of strength/ Short-term improvement/ Longer-term transformation). Overall, there was strong support for the importance of survey statements to the future of teaching in Flanders (on average, the statements were rated as important by 90% of respondents). All ambitions rated higher for longer- term transformation and shorter-term improvement compared to being an area of strength. There was no particular theme related to the ambition statements rated to be of lower importance.
Table 2.4. highlights themes that were distilled from an analysis of the top 20 statements with the highest ratings for importance from the stakeholder survey in each of the levels of change.
Source: OECD survey on New Professionalism and the Future of Teaching in Flanders (N=78)
Stakeholder workshops
Two stakeholder workshops were held in Brussels and in Ghent in January 2024. Most of the participants in the stakeholder workshops had completed the stakeholder survey before participating. At the start of the workshop, each participant had the opportunity to review the ambition loops and results from the stakeholder survey. In addition, participants placed up to 10 dots across the statements they most valued for their preferred scenario for the future of teaching/ schooling.
Stakeholders then worked collaboratively, using the ambition loops statements and their own discussions to generate preferred future scenarios for the future of teaching/schooling. Once the scenarios were generated, a further step provided opportunity to receive feedback on the proposed scenarios, including input for backward mapping to discuss possible actions needed to realise their preferred future scenarios. At the end of the session each group had the opportunity to strengthen their draft scenario based on the feedback.
A total of eight preferred future scenarios were created across the two workshops. As outlined in the workshops, one of the next steps was for these to be distilled into a manageable number of scenarios to create a set of preferred scenarios for further development. A total of six scenarios were developed by merging scenarios that showed a large amount of similarity between them. Column one of Table 2.5. shows the long list of eight scenarios created at the workshops. Column two shows the set of six final scenarios created. As part of the stakeholder workshops, 39 ambition loops/ ‘what if’ statements out of a 158 total available were included in the long list of preferred future scenarios developed (see Annex B). Some of the statements were repeated in up to three scenarios.
Source: OECD study on New Professionalism and the Future of Teaching in Flanders
Teacher personas
Following the stakeholder workshops, the OECD team worked with a small team from the Ministry to further strengthen the scenarios. A key focus of this session involved using the teacher personas to consider the relative benefits of the scenarios for different teacher personas as well as considering ways to action each of the scenarios. The final set of preferred scenarios for the future of teaching/schooling, and the perceived responses from the personas are detailed in Chapter 4.
The next chapter outlines the six personas that were developed for this study, for which the methodology is described.
References
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