The US economy was strongly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The demand shock that resulted from the introduction of lockdowns, voluntary social distancing and business closures resulted in a strong contraction in economic growth. In Q2 of 2020, GDP declined by 9.1%, the highest contraction in quarterly GDP since tracking began in 1947. Despite some recovery in the second half of the year, annual GDP declined by 3.5%. The pandemic also had a significant impact on the labour market: the US unemployment rate shot up by 10.4 percentage points from March to April 2020, reaching a record high of 14.3%. This figure gradually declined to 6.7% at the end of the year and has since nearly recovered to pre-crisis levels.
The impact of the crisis on SMEs was significant. Lockdowns led to depressed demand, business closures and disruptions in supply chains that strongly impacted SME operations, revenues and liquidity. In the US Census Bureau’s Small Business Pulse Survey, nearly 90% of small businesses reported a large or moderate negative impact of the pandemic in the end of April 2020. Over this period, more than 70% reported a decline in operating revenues, over 40% of business reported temporary closures, and more than 40% noted supply chain problems. During the same period, 75% of surveyed enterprises had requested government assistance through the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) (see more below). These impacts prevailed through most of the second quarter of 2020 and gradually declined in the second half of 2020 as the recovery began to take shape.
Lending conditions tightened in the first six months of the crisis, but the demand for credit also declined considerably due to significant recourse to the PPP scheme (see more below). The Federal Reserve loosened monetary policy by lowering the federal funds rate by 50 basis points in March 2020 to a target range of 0 to 0.25%. However, the heightened uncertainty over the evolution of the pandemic and its economic impact led to considerable tightening of lending conditions in Q2 and Q3, as noted in the Senior Loan Officer Survey. The October 2020 showed that a large proportion of banks indicated an increase in the use of interest floors, collateralisation requirements, loan covenants and premiums charges on riskier loans, as a result of a perception of a more uncertain outlook and worsening of industry-specific problems. However, in both survey rounds, many bank officials reported a weaker demand for corporate credit.
Government support programmes were critical in limiting the economic fallout from the crisis. 2020 saw an historic increase in government-backed financing to SMEs. The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) provided an additional 5.2 million in forgivable loans worth more than USD 525 billion through August 2020. The programme has since been extended twice, with the latest extension in January 2021. The SBA’s Economic Injury Disaster Loan (EIDL) Program added another 3.6 million small business loans valued at USD191 billion, as well as an additional 5.7 million EIDL Advances worth USD 20 billion. Loans guaranteed through traditional SBA lending programs exceeded USD28 billion in Fiscal Year 2020. These programs account for the declining interest rates and interest rate spreads between SMEs and large enterprises and the large decline in the share of SMEs requiring collateral to obtain a loan, despite the crisis (see Table 48.1). They also likely play a role in the decline in bankruptcies relative to 2019 (see Table 48.1).
Venture Capital in 2020 registered a record high in total capital raised, with a growth of 13% compared to 2019, even if the number of deals was slightly lower than the equivalent 2019 figure. When looking by stages, early stage financing was more adversely affected by the crisis with seed and angel number of deals registering a decline of 11%, and early VC deals declining by 20%. In terms of total capital raised, early VC was particularly affected, closing the year with a decline of 11%, while seed and angel closed the year with a 1% increase.