This report is the result of a participatory, multi-stakeholder foresight process conducted over several months in 2020 and 2021.
The three scenarios presented herein stem from a horizon-scanning exercise conducted by the OECD Strategic Foresight Unit in order to identify change drivers that could have disruptive consequences for global collaboration and the OECD over the next fifteen years. Each scenario was developed with input from relevant OECD directorates and designed to challenge one or two key assumptions about the future that could have far-reaching implications for the Organisation (see scenarios comparison table in Annex A).
External consultation first took place during the October 2020 OECD Government Foresight Community Annual Meeting, attended by over 200 government foresight practitioners from 38 countries. Expanded versions of the scenarios were further explored with OECD foresight and subject matter experts, and key partners of the OECD Strategic Foresight Unit including the Strategic Futures Group of the United States National Intelligence Council and Policy Horizons Canada.
The scenarios also benefitted from a multi-generational perspective. Students from Emlyon business school, the University of Oxford and the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver all contributed at various stages of the development process.
The finalised scenarios were discussed in workshops with OECD Ambassadors, senior management and staff members, as well as with key stakeholders such as development foundations. All were invited to weigh in on the following questions:
What implications and considerations could the scenarios raise for the future of global collaboration and for the OECD?
What new challenges and opportunities could the scenarios raise for the OECD’s future purpose, values, relationships, and operations?
What is one new action step the OECD could take today to be better prepared for these and other future scenarios?
Responses and insights from these informal consultations were distilled into a set of initial strategic considerations offered at the end of this report. Going forward, the Strategic Foresight Unit will continue to work with the OECD community as well as foresight experts and innovative futures thinkers from around the world to explore key areas of uncertainty and possible future disruptions and their implications for collaboration on global public policy.