The first part of the volume deals with between-country inequality. It investigates the aggregate levels of well-being of each country and compares countries with one another as if they were uniform entities. The volume opens with a discussion of the new estimates of GDP, the workhorse of all well-being studies. World GDP per capita increased by a factor of 13 between the 1820s and the 2010s. As the total population increased seven-fold, total GDP went up by a factor of 90. But this growth was spread very unevenly over the globe: until about 1950, the rich countries grew faster than the poor ones, resulting in a huge increase in international income disparities. Maddison based his seminal study of GDP on 1990 purchasing power parities and prices. For 2011, a new dataset of global prices is now available through the International Comparison Programme (ICP). The chapter investigates the consequences of using these alternative prices when computing historical estimates of GDP for the years before 1950. It argues that simply moving from the 1990 to the 2011 price benchmark does not improve estimates for the historical period, probably due to the greater distance between 2011 and the historical benchmark estimates in the dataset. The evidence summarised in the chapter suggests that the 1990 benchmark created by Maddison is probably the best compromise solution for historical estimates, in particular when used in combination with the 2011 PPPs for the most recent period.
Chapter 3 deals with one of the crucial missing elements in the first How Was Life? report (van Zanden et al., 2014[1]). Working hours and time off from work are central to people’s work-life balance. When considered globally, we observe substantial disparities in working time, with people in some countries working significantly more than in others. Amongst OECD countries, the working week in manufacturing has declined dramatically since the 19th century. Full-time workers in manufacturing worked 60 to 90 hours per week in the 19th century. Today they work roughly 40 hours. In the second half of the 20th century, the Middle East and North Africa, as well as Sub-Saharan Africa, experienced an increase in working time in manufacturing. In the case of the Middle East and North Africa, the working week rose to close to 55 hours.
Chapter 4 presents estimates of the value of social transfers. While these transfers typically aim at addressing various risks that people face during their lives, they also play an important role in mitigating within-country inequalities. Such efforts were tiny or non-existent until political developments assigned greater responsibility for addressing more of these risks to the government in the last hundred years. In 1900, no national government transferred more than 3% of GDP via social programmes. This has increased gradually in most countries, to a level in some of them above 15% in 1970, and to around 30% today. While initially governments transferred most of these funds to support young people attending school, gradually the make-up of these transfers has shifted to old-age pensions and support to the elderly. Since the richest countries tend to have the most developed social programmes, social safety nets tend to be strongest where they are least needed on social and economic grounds.
Chapter 5 pushes forward the frontier of historical research on within-country economic inequality by investigating wealth inequality, as measured by the Gini coefficient and by the wealth share controlled by the richest 10 percent of the population. Different regions of the world have followed different long-term trends in wealth inequality. While in Western Europe wealth inequality has decreased in the past two centuries, in the Western Offshoots it increased, a tendency stopped only by World Wars I and II and by the troubled times in-between. Despite this difference, one can see a general pattern, with an overall tendency for wealth inequality to increase during the 19th century, and seemingly during the first decade of the 20th century. There is no clear correlation between the level of GDP per capita and wealth inequality.
Chapter 6 focuses on inequality in one of the crucial outcomes of economic development, i.e. length of life. Until 1900, life expectancy in the best-performing countries was limited to 65 years for men and 67 years for women. For men, it then increased to about 72 around 1950, where it plateaued until about 1970, after which it increased gradually to reach its current value of around 82. For women, the increase was more continuous, although a slight slowdown is visible after 1950, reaching the current value of about 87 in the best-performing countries. Throughout the period, women had a higher life expectancy than men, a gap that reached 13 years in Russia in the 2000s. Inequality in life expectancy, as measured by the Gini index, is much lower than for income, and has decreased over time with only few exceptions (Mexico and Egypt in the 2000s and 2010s). Moreover, inequality in life expectancy has changed relatively little in countries such as India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Argentina, Brazil and Mexico, while it is higher in the United States compared to other developed countries.
Chapter 7 investigates inequalities in educational attainment, a factor that has crucial importance for equality of opportunity. The Gini coefficient in the years of schooling of the population declined significantly over the 19th and 20th centuries. This reduction was caused mostly by the fall in the share of people without any educational qualification. While the Gini coefficient is a measure of relative inequality (when the educational attainment of everyone doubles, the Gini coefficient does not change), a measure of absolute inequality such as the standard deviation highlights the existence of an educational Kuznets’s curve: whereas initially a rise in education led to more inequality, after a certain point inequality starts to decrease. While most countries reached this tipping point in the 20th century, other countries are still in the “rising part” of the curve, implying that they confront a trade-off between stimulating education and reducing educational inequality.
Chapter 8 investigates gender inequality – a major determinant of well-being for, at least, half of the population – providing new estimates dating back to 1900 and sometimes earlier. These include new historical measures of the gender gap in wages and unemployment in the 20th century as well as new data on the share of female-headed households. While the post-World War II era has been traditionally seen as a period of progressive narrowing of gender gaps, the new evidence suggests that progress towards greater gender equality had started already in the pre-War era.
Chapter 9 discusses perhaps the most important benefit of economic growth – the reduction of extreme poverty – using a metric (based on the inability to purchase a near-subsistence basket of goods and services) that overcomes some of the limitations of the traditional 1.9 USD-a-day standard. Based on this measure, 53% of the world’s population lived in extreme poverty in 1950, which is 23 percentage points lower than the level in 1820. By 1990, the rate had dropped further to 31%. The fall of extreme poverty continued in the following years, and by 2018 global extreme poverty had dropped to 10%, with reductions in India and China as the main drivers. Countries continue to have differing levels of extreme poverty. In Western Europe and the Western Offshoots, extreme poverty fell below 1% as early as the 1970s. When considering other world regions, the biggest declines include Russia (from a staggering 98% in 1820 to 2% in 2018) and Japan (where extreme poverty was eradicated by 1975 from levels as high as 95% in 1820). However, by 2018 the absolute number of persons living in conditions of extreme poverty was on par with that in 1820, at about three-quarters of a billion people.
Chapter 10 pushes the frontier of knowledge about the historical interaction between human activity and the natural environment by focusing on biodiversity loss. Globally, species populations declined by 36% to 52% in abundance between 1970 and 2010. But historical records suggest that biodiversity has been declining at least since 1500, and probably for the better part of the Holocene. A case study reconstructing biodiversity change in the Netherlands from 1900 onwards based on different assemblages of species shows a long-term decline in biodiversity between 1900 and 1970 and a partial recovery since the 1980s. Population growth, the intensification of agriculture, pollution and the expansion of infrastructure are identified as the key human drivers of biodiversity loss in the Netherlands.
The final chapter synthesises the results of the report through two composite indices of well-being. The first is an overall indicator compiled as the average of the average well-being measures of each country presented in the current and previous volumes (i.e. a “mean-of-means”). Adding the new average well-being measures included in this book does not fundamentally change the global picture drawn in 2014: that there was great progress throughout the 1820-2010 period, which is more evenly distributed across countries than in the case of GDP per capita. The estimated indices of well-being show less divergence than GDP per capita, and therefore smaller global differences, as well as considerable convergence of large parts of the world (East Asia, Eastern Europe and the Middle East). However, in particular Africa did lag behind relative to the rest of the world, although well-being there did also increase substantially.
The second is a composite indicator of the within-country measures of well-being inequality (i.e. a “mean-of-inequalities”), which weights four different inequality measures (inequality of educational attainment, life expectancy, income and gender). The long-term declines in three aspects (income inequality being the exception) means that this composite inequality indicator has declined in many parts of the world since 1820, with a stronger reduction in Africa and Asia compared to Western Europe and its Offshoots. The 20th century therefore featured both large improvements of average levels of well-being and massive reductions in well-being inequality in life expectancy, educational attainment and gender relations. The decline in income inequality, which characterised the 20th century, lasted only until about 1970, and was followed by an often dramatic reversal. While we still live in a highly unequal world, where the place of birth – via the citizen rent – and other non-personal features – gender, race, religion, social class – strongly affect the choices that people have to lead a better life, this report has identified at least some changes that point to convergence and reductions of social and economic inequalities.