In 2016, registered net migration remained negative. Its level more than doubled compared with 2015, to -9 300. While total negative net migration continues to be driven by the growing negative net migration of Bulgarian nationals (-16 500 from -13 700 in 2015), positive net migration of foreigners keeps decreasing (by 23% to 7 300), thus playing a smaller role in compensating national population decline.
Emigration of Bulgarians increased by 5%, reaching 25 800, comprising 85% of total outflows. The largest group (43%) of Bulgarian emigrants was aged 20-35. Total immigration declined in both 2015 and 2016, although the level remains well above pre-2014 figures. Declining immigration of foreigners (-17%) and notably the sharp decrease in inflows from Syria, is the main driver of this trend. Among the 12 000 foreign immigrants, the top three nationalities were Russia, Turkey and Ukraine.
The stock of foreign-born residents increased by 12% in 2016 and reached a record high of 147 000, 2% of the total population. The main countries of origin of the non-EU-born population remain stable and include Russia (18.7% of the total), Syria (8.4%), Turkey (6.9%) and Ukraine (6%). One third of the foreign-born originated from EU countries, mainly the United Kingdom, Germany and Greece. The diversification of the foreign-born population is due to Bulgaria’s geopolitical position at the crossroad of global and regional migration flows, including from neighbouring crisis-ridden areas.
In 2016/17, three main trends emerged concerning asylum flows. First, after four years of steady increase and a record high in 2015, applications for international protection started to decrease in 2016, to 19 400 (-5%), and dropped in 2017 to 3 700. Second, the national composition of asylum seeking inflows has diversified. Since the end of 2015, Afghans have replaced Syrians as the largest group of applicants. In 2016, applications from Afghans and Iraqis boomed (respectively 45% and 28% of the total), while those of Syrians declined to 14%. In 2017, Afghans accounted for 31%, Iraqis for 28% and Syrians 26% of applications. Third, rejection rates have increased. In 2017, almost 99% of applications from Afghans, and 89% from Iraqis, were refused, while only 6% of Syrians had their request refused.
In the academic year 2016/17, international enrolment in Bulgarian universities grew, reaching 13 200 or 5.4% of the total student population, up from 11 600 and 4.4% respectively in 2015/2016. Most foreign students continued to come from neighbouring countries, mainly Greece (27%) and Turkey (15%). The number of British and German students tripled and doubled respectively compared to the previous year.
In 2016, despite persistent unemployment, some sectors of the recovering economy reported labour shortages. The new Labour Migration and Labour Mobility Law which entered into force in April provides an exemption to labour market testing for recruitment of foreigners in a list of occupations set annually by the newly-established National Council on Labour Migration and Labour Mobility – a consultative body made up of representatives of eight ministries, social partners and local authorities – and the National Council for Encouragement of Employment. The 2016 law also included provisions to facilitate Blue Card issue and the transposition of EU directives on intra-corporate transfers and seasonal workers.
In 2016, the number of new work permits swelled to 740, from barely 200 in 2015. Of these, a record 200 EU Blue Cards were issued, 70% more than in 2015 and more than six times the 2014 figure. Most work permits were granted to highly qualified specialists in IT and engineering. Six countries accounted for almost half of all permit holders: Serbia, Turkey, United States, Ukraine, FYROM, and Russia. In 2016, 200 seasonal and short-term permits were issued, mainly to nationals of neighbouring countries.
Additional amendments to Bulgarian labour migration legislation in 2016/2017 further liberalised foreigners’ labour market access. Since January 2017, a simplified procedure for issuing 90-day seasonal worker visas applies. By August 2017, 3 215 such visas had been issued, bringing seasonal worker inflow to a 30-year high. Amendments in June and November 2017 introduced more favourable conditions for EU Blue Card issue, extending its duration to up to 4 years, and waiving the 10% foreign employee limit for businesses hiring EU Blue Card holders. Conversely, requirements for long-term entrepreneur visas have been tightened to ensure that business immigration brings a genuine economic contribution.
In 2017, a new regulation – the third in two years – was introduced, which defines the terms of the integration contract between beneficiaries of international protection and mayors. However, the additional burden that the decentralisation of responsibility for refugee integration has put on under-resourced local authorities means that in many cases they have no other choice than rejecting eligible migrants, thus rendering integration support de facto unavailable.
