This chapter presents the results of the United Kingdom case study. It documents efforts, achievements and remaining gaps in the design and use of adaptation measurement frameworks in England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, and assesses the suitability of adaptation indicators to help gauge progress in building resilience to climate change.
Measuring Progress in Adapting to a Changing Climate
Insights from OECD countries
Abstract
The United Kingdom (UK) is well equipped to review progress on implementing national adaptation policies. The 2008 Climate Change Act required the UK to develop a regular UK-wide Climate Change Risk Assessment and a subsequent National Adaptation Programme (NAP) focused on England. The UK/England and devolved governments (Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland) each have their own responsibilities for developing, implementing and reviewing adaptation policies, which all follow a five-year adaptation policy cycle, and are currently in their third cycle.
All devolved administrations already have or are developing monitoring and evaluation reports in line with their respective adaptation plans, which cover different sectors. Their publication frequency varies and are complemented by the work of the Climate Change Committee (CCC), which independently and regularly reviews adaptation progress in the UK as well as in all three devolved administrations. They all track progress in implementing actions, though the extent to which they evaluate the actions varies:
In the UK as a whole and England, the CCC undertakes the progress measurement. To do so, it has developed monitoring maps that lay out a high-level goal for climate resilience for each assessed sector, followed by a list of outcomes, as well as the enabling and policy conditions that support the outcomes. Progress towards the outcomes, enabling and policy conditions are monitored by way of indicators. By embedding a theory of change approach, the maps are useful to address the challenge of attribution and, at least, understand the contribution of a specific policy action and associated enablers to the intended objectives.
In Scotland, an overarching vision for adaptation is broken down into nine relatively broad objectives by three themes (nature, the build environment and society). Sectoral ministries must report annually on climate risk, adaptation actions and future priorities. These are also independently assessed by the CCC.
In Northern Ireland, each of the nine government departments has a duty to report on adaptation progress against the objectives set out in Northern Ireland’s adaptation plan. This is complemented by an independent progress assessment by the CCC.
In Wales, a broad adaptation vision is broken down into actions in three cross-cutting areas: knowledge, capacity and resilience. It has developed a specific monitoring and evaluation framework relying on both quantitative and qualitative information. The Welsh Government requested an additional assessment by the CCC.
Local authorities only partly measure progress in implementing adaptation actions. In Northern Ireland, for example, local governments submit information on local climate risks and adaptation actions online to track progress against the Northern Irish plan. In England, local authorities are no longer required to report on adaptation progress, with their requirement to report on selected national adaptation indicators between 2008-2010 now discontinued. A mandate for all the UK’s local authorities to report on implementation of adaptation policies would help feed local information into national reporting, enhance consistency in adaptation progress measurement across the devolved administrations and secure financial capacity.
The UK has a wealth of indicators that are relevant for adaptation. The CCC relies on a set of indicators to review progress in achieving adaptation outcomes, enablers, policies and plans as well as to assess climate risk and hazards, exposure and vulnerability. A sectoral indicator set was developed iteratively based on the indicators’ suitability to demonstrate change over time, even if data are lacking for the large majority of indicators (in England, 40% of the adaptation outcomes cannot be assessed due to data gaps). Involving data owners from relevant ministries and statistical offices early in the process of defining adaptation indicators is key to increase the usability and actual reporting on progress through them.
The four devolved administrations of the UK (England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland) share responsibilities for climate change adaptation.1 The UK Government, led by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), co-ordinates adaptation policy in England2 and throughout the UK on a range of non-devolved matters such as energy resilience (Defra, 2019[1]; UK Government, 2020[2]).
Defra prepares and publishes the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) and the National Adaptation Programmes (NAP) for England. It reports to the UK Parliament in order to account for its work. In addition, Defra’s Secretary of State has to approve the objectives and deadlines of various government and non-government executive bodies.3 The Secretary of State allocates resources and monitors the performance and progress of the projects and policies implemented by these bodies. Defra also develops responses to progress reports and to independent risk assessments prepared by the Climate Change Committee (CCC), the independent statutory body. Defra’s work is supported by expert analysis from government departments and independent bodies, such as the CCC and the Met Office (an Arm’s Length Body of the Department for Science Innovation and Technology).
The CCC and its Adaptation Committee (AC) play a key role in informing adaptation policies in the UK. The 2008 Climate Change Act requires the AC to publish biennial progress reports on the UK Government’s climate change adaptation programme and to develop an Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk (CRIA). The AC’s role is to advise national authorities on adaptation, to provide analysis for the CCRA, and to report to the UK Parliament on the UK Government’s progress in implementing its NAP for England. It can also provide ad hoc advice upon request. For example, the Scottish Government sought advice from the UK CCC on recovery from COVID-19 in a way that increases resilience to climate impacts (Scottish Government, 2021[3]). The AC is jointly sponsored by Defra, the Northern Ireland Executive, the Scottish Government and the Welsh Government, notably to undertake the evidence analysis to inform the climate risk assessment and to provide independent and impartial advice.
Responsibility for implementing adaptation actions identified by the CCRA spans multiple sectors. While Defra oversees this process, individual risks and priority risk groups defined in the CCRA, along with corresponding actions in the NAP, are managed and owned by policy teams in departments across the UK Government.4 NAP3, which covers England and UK reserved matters, identifies 12 government departments and other agencies responsible for implementation, often working alongside key partners in their policy areas. These include the Meteorological Office, Environment Agency, and other stakeholders such as Network Rail, the water services regulation authority, Natural England and local highway authorities (Defra, 2023[4]).
Defra works with the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) to ensure that energy providers invest in climate resilience (e.g. flood risk proofing). The Department for Transport (DfT) has a key role in managing infrastructure, particularly to identify vulnerabilities in the transport network and to fund or promote technologies that can help to reduce the risk of damage (Defra, 2023[4]). The Environment Agency in England provides advice on climate resilience to organisations from key sectors in England. The Cabinet Office and Defra have also established a new Climate Resilience Steering Board involving senior officials from key government departments to oversee strategic, cross-cutting climate adaptation and resilience issues and enable more co-ordinated policy making in central government.
The UK Treasury and financial authorities are also involved in adaptation policy decisions by taking steps to assess the exposure of the financial system to climate impacts. The UK Treasury aims to ensure consistent implementation of climate-related financial disclosures, as laid out in the UK’s Green Finance Strategy and in the Treasury’s 2021 Green Finance Roadmap (UK Government, 2021[5]; UK Government, 2019[6]). The Bank of England has published its second climate change adaptation report examining how firms (including around 1 500 banks and insurance companies) regulated by the Prudential Regulatory Authority (PRA) are exposed to climate risks and are managing these risks. It is now working with the UK Government on its roadmap for mandatory reporting against the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosure (TCFD) framework (PRA, 2021[7]; Defra, 2023[8]).
Local government5 policy decisions can influence adaptation through planning, public health and flood risk management (UK Government, 2020[2]). In 2011, Defra established the Local Adaptation Advisory Panel (LAAP), a forum bringing together selected local authorities from England, the UK Government and other relevant arms-length delivery bodies to inform the NAPs (notably the Local Government Chapter), the progress reports and the CCRAs (UK Government, 2016[9]). However, the absence of reporting and limited resources at the local level challenge the LAAP’s capacity to have more impact on policy decisions and its ability to implement adaptation practices. At the city level, some institutional arrangements also exist to bring expertise in facilitating adaptation policy implementation. For example, Bristol has set up an Advisory Committee on Climate Change to guide the work of the Environmental Sustainability Board (Bristol City Council, 2021[10]).
Devolved responsibility for the development, implementation and monitoring of adaptation policy lies with the Cabinet Secretary for Net Zero, Energy and Transport in Scotland; the Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA) in Northern Ireland, and the Welsh Government in Wales (Defra, 2023[8]). Devolved administrations have their own co-ordination mechanisms to develop and implement adaptation policies. In Northern Ireland for instance, the Climate Change Adaptation Sub-Group of the cross-department working group on climate change, involving representatives from each department, was established to support risk assessments, deliver a cross-departmental adaptation programme, review cross-departmental action on an annual basis and ensure that Northern Ireland’s legal obligations under the UK Climate Change Act 2008 are met (DAERA NI, 2019[11]). Additionally, a Local Government Climate Action Network (LGCAN) was set up to facilitate information exchange between local authorities (councils) in Northern Ireland and to provide them with access to adaptation tools and resources (Climate NI, 2021[12]).
Other bodies provide support for designing and implementing adaptation policies in devolved administrations. Climate Northern Ireland (Climate NI), funded by DAERA, is a network of external stakeholders who promote actions to address climate impacts to support the devolved government (Climate NI, 2021[13]). Adaptation Scotland provides advice and support to help the public sector, businesses and communities prepare for and build resilience to climate impacts. Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government, currently delivered by the sustainability charity Sniffer (Adaptation Scotland, 2020[14]). The centre of expertise ClimateXChange works with the Scottish Government to deliver evidence-based policies informed by independent climate research (ClimateXChange, 2021[15]).
The policy development process also relies on extensive stakeholder engagement through various co-ordination mechanisms. In Wales for example, the current NAP proposes developing an External Stakeholder Adaptation Group to facilitate exchanges between the government and external delivery partners. A Core Internal Adaptation Group facilitates co-ordination of climate adaptation policy across Welsh government departments, reporting to the Climate Change Portfolio Board (Welsh Government, 2020[16]). The Transboundary Adaptation Learning Exchange (TalX) is a collaborative research project that provides a learning network for climate adaptation across the UK’s devolved administrations and the Republic of Ireland, which are areas subject to similar climate risks but at different stages of maturity in adaptation planning and implementation (TalX, 2021[17]).
The UK has a long history of government support for work on climate change adaptation. In 2008, the Climate Change Act (CCA) created the legal framework for adaptation in the UK. It requires the development of a UK-wide Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) every five years, as well as a National Adaptation Programme (NAP) addressing climate change risks in England6 following each CCRA. The act established the CCC to provide independent advice to the UK and devolved governments on progress made in adapting to climate change. The act requires the UK Government to take into account the advice of the CCC (UK Parliament, 2008[18]). The UK’s domestic and international actions and ambitions on adaptation and resilience are reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in the form of an adaptation communication,7 and in the UK’s Nationally Determined Contribution (UK Government, 2020[2]; UK Government, 2020[19]; UK Government, 2021[20]).
The UK Parliament is consulted twice in the adaptation policy development process: i) the government is obliged to present the CCRA to parliament; and ii) the CCC has to report every two years on progress in adapting to climate change (CCC, 2023[21]). The UK’s Environment Act 2021 includes provisions for biodiversity conservation and water management that are relevant to adaptation, and legally formed the Office for Environmental Protection (OEP) to hold public authorities accountable by reviewing and reporting on the government’s progress in meeting environmental goals and targets (UK Government, 2021[22]).
Legal frameworks have also been developed in devolved administrations. The Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 requires the development of a Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme (SCCAP) to address the risks identified in the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment for Scotland. All public bodies, including local authorities, are required to help deliver the SCCAP. The Welsh Well-Being of Future Generations Act 2015 requires councils to take account of the impacts from climate change to ensure environmental well-being (Welsh Government, 2015[23]). Similarly, the Environment (Wales) Act 2016 sets further provisions for the establishment of a local evidence base for natural resources to determine risks, priorities and opportunities (Welsh Government, 2016[24]). In Northern Ireland, the Climate Change Act 2022 gives the CCC the mandate to undertake an independent assessment of progress towards implementing the latest NICCAP and to provide recommendations for improving the NICCAP, and requires DAERA to respond to the CCC’s report (CCC, 2023[25]).
The UK/England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland all follow a five-year adaptation policy cycle (Figure 2.1). A number of documents inform national adaptation policy development, notably the latest climate change risk assessments (CCRA), evidence reports,8 evaluation/progress reports and the UK government’s response.
Note: *NICCAP2 (2019) comprises an evaluation of NICCAP (2014).
Source: Authors, based on documents listed in Annex 1.A.
The climate risk assessment process – the CCRA, Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk (CRIA), and government’s response– is the basis for developing the national adaptation programmes:
The Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk, published by the CCC,9 considers where additional adaptation action is needed in the coming five years based on current and planned policies, as well as on sectors in which impacts are expected (natural environment, infrastructure, people and the built environment, and business and industry). The independent risk assessment is also funded by all three devolved administrations and Defra, as the UK Government adaptation policy lead.
The CCRA, building on the Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk, is a UK-wide risk assessment which informs the NAPs of the UK Government and the adaptation programmes of all three devolved administrations, by whom it is funded. Defra oversees this process for England and in reserved policy areas, but individual risks and priority risk groups, along with corresponding actions in the NAP, are owned by policy teams in departments across the UK Government. Adaptation programmes for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are devolved to the respective devolved administrations, again with policy teams across departments responding to individual risks and risk groups.
There are also bridges built with the science community. The UK’s Met Office is in charge of providing the necessary data on climate change. It publishes a State of the UK Climate report annually, including an assessment of UK climate trends, variations and extremes, based on the latest available high-quality climate observational datasets (Met Office, 2023[26]). In 2018, the Met Office’s Hadley Centre Programme published the latest major update of UK Climate Projections (UKCP18), including regional scenarios (Met Office, 2021[27]) which offer unprecedented spatial detail to inform adaptation planning and decision making (Defra, 2019[1]; UK Government, 2020[2]). Policy development is also informed by universities and research institutes. For example, the UK Climate Resilience Programme is a research institute that helps inform the management of climate-related risks (UKRP, 2021[28]). In 2021, the UK Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (now the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero) launched the research programme CS-NOW (climate services) led by a consortium of research institutions to help inform policies on climate resilience (UK Government, 2021[29]).
Figure 2.2 lays out the main plans for all the UK’s governments. The National Adaptation Programme outlines the UK Government’s objectives for adaptation in England and certain reserved policy areas, and sets out how the government will address the risks highlighted in the CCRA. The UK Government published the first NAP in 2013, NAP2 in 2018 and NAP3 in 2023, covering the period 2023-28.
The governments of each of the UK’s devolved administrations have their own adaptation programmes to respond to their respective climate change priorities:
Scotland published its second Climate Change Adaptation Programme (SCCAP2, 2019-24) in 2019, building on the 2009 plan and 2014 programme with a focus on communities, climate justice, the economy, infrastructure, natural environment, marine environment, and international partnerships (Scottish Government, 2019[30]).
Wales released its second climate change adaptation plan in 2019, with a focus on flooding, droughts, risks to ecosystems and agriculture businesses and risks to the historic environment (Welsh Government, 2019[31]).
Northern Ireland’s first (NICCAP1, 2014-19) and second (NICCAP2, 2019-24) adaptation programmes both address five key priority areas, namely natural capital, infrastructure services, people and the built environment, disruption to business and supply chains, food security/global food production (DAERA NI, 2019[11]). NICCAP3 is due to cover the period 2024-29.
A number of sectoral policies mainstream adaptation – notably those related to flood and coastal erosion management, and water resources policy – within the National Infrastructure Strategy as well as environmental policies such as England’s 25-Year Environment Plan (25-YEP) (UK Government, 2020[2]). Similarly, in Wales the policy framework is supplemented at the sectoral level, for example by the 2015 Water Strategy for Wales and the 2018 Woodlands Strategy for Wales.
Climate change adaptation policies, risk assessment reports and evaluation reports
Note: ER = evidence report, PR = progress report. *Review of NICCAP1 is built into NICCAP2.
Source: Authors, based on documents listed in Annex 1.A.
Where these exist, local adaptation policies usually build on risk assessments, which are critical for informing the priority setting process and creating a baseline for measuring progress towards adaptation. However, most local authorities have not undertaken risk assessments. There is no requirement to undertake risk assessments at the regional or city/council level and in addition, the development of risk assessments is often hindered by the limited funding, capacity and knowledge of which risks to assess. Below are some examples of where risk assessments have been undertaken.
The Mayor of London is required by the Greater London Authority Act 1999 to consider the impact of climate change and adaptation options. The mayor has developed a dedicated chapter on adapting to climate change for the 8.7 million Londoners in the 2018 London Environment Strategy (Greater London Authority, 2018[32]). Bristol (a Mayors Adapt member) has endorsed its 2020 strategy, building on a climate resilience assessment, and is now developing an action plan (Bristol City Council and ARUP, 2020[33]; Bristol City Council, 2021[10]). In Northern Ireland, Derry and Strabane District Council were the first to develop a local authority climate adaptation plan, building on a local risk assessment (Derry City & Strabane DC, 2018[34]). Climate NI have developed a five-step adaptation planning tool to support local councils and organisations in assessing current and future vulnerability to climate impacts, leading to the development of a risk register and adaptation plan (Climate NI, 2021[35]). Several other local authorities are developing adaptation plans and strategies (Cambridge City Council, Fermanagh & Omagh, and Derry City and Strabane District Council) (Belfast City Council, 2020[36]; Fermanagh & Omagh District Council, 2021[37]; Derry City & Strabane DC, 2018[34]; Cambridge City Council, 2018[38]). However, although around 300 councils have declared a climate emergency, less than 12% of them mention adaptation to climate change (LSE, 2021[39]).
The UK and all devolved administrations have or are developing monitoring and evaluation reports (Table 2.1). These are undertaken by the respective governments. Additional independent reviews are conducted by the CCC for Scotland and for Northern Ireland (UK Parliament, 2008[18]; UK Government, 2009[40]). The establishment of a CCC office for Scotland is under consideration. Although the CCC does not have a remit to assess progress in Wales at present, it provides informal advice on indicators, goal setting and evaluation (CCC, 2020[41]). The CCC’s remit is wide compared to its internal capacity, which consists of five full-time analysts whose tasks are to conduct in-house research, analysis and drafting of reports, as well as managing external research to help increase its expertise. It should be noted that the CCC’s capacity for work on adaptation is smaller than its capacity to support mitigation-related work (CCC, 2020[41]).
Progress reports/evaluations can be developed at different stages of the policy cycle. Results of these reviews allow policy makers to adjust and refine strategies and actions and to take account of the latest CCRA. The reviews that are conducted annually (e.g. Scotland), biennially (e.g. UK) or at regular intervals (e.g. Northern Ireland) are those that apply in most cases and can inform policy revisions in conjunction with the latest CCRA and independent CCC advice. The timelines of adaptation policies and related monitoring and evaluation across devolved administrations (some of which are statutory in nature) do not necessarily align with the UK CCRA (Figure 2.2). The devolved administrations are also at different stages of advancement in terms of reporting.
Source: Based on documents listed in Annex 1.A.
Clear objectives that address key climate risks, and associated actions to achieve them, are the basis for assessing progress. The priorities identified in the CCRA for the UK and devolved administrations are reflected in the respective national adaptation programmes and actions. The UK NAP1 and NAP2’s overall goal on adaptation (focused on England and reserved matters) is: “A society which makes timely, far-sighted and well-informed decisions to address the risks and opportunities posed by a changing climate”. The UK NAP2 contains a detailed action log listing adaptation policies, objectives and actions to be implemented, with its chapters reflecting the second CCRA evidence report (Defra, 2019[1]).
Similarly, NAP3 states that the UK Government’s vision for adaptation is for a country that effectively plans for and is fully adapted to the changing climate, and which is resilient to each of the identified climate risks. The UK NAP3 has responded to the 61 risks and opportunities identified in CCRA3, grouped into five chapters (infrastructure, natural environment, healthy communities and built environment; business and industry, international dimensions), all of which include risk reduction goals, and actions to achieve those objectives (Defra, 2023[8]). It also often sets out timescales and responsible owners for the implementation of actions, although less consistently than in NAP2 (Table 2.2). Instead, it aims to develop an M&E framework for assessing the first NAP3 progress report, expected in 2025 (Table 2.2) (Defra, 2023[8]).
Under the Climate Change Act (2008), it is the CCC and AC’s statutory duty to biennially assess the UK Government’s progress in preparing for climate change and in implementing the NAP in England. The AC is responsible for providing advice to national authorities on climate change impacts and for reporting on progress to the UK Parliament (UK Parliament, 2008[18]). The AC first reported to parliament in 2015, and has done so every two years ever since (2017, 2019, 2021, 2023). Defra responds to these progress reports with inputs from the devolved administrations (Table 2.1).
The CCC’s 2019 and 2021 UK progress reports mirror the themes outlined in NAP2. The 2021 report assesses clustered adaptation priorities within the 4 themes: 8 priorities for the natural environment, 12 for people and the built environment, 10 for infrastructure and 4 for business. The report assesses changes in policies regarding these adaptation priority areas; lists updated indicators related to vulnerability, exposure, adaptation actions and impact; and sets out 8 key messages and 50 specific recommendations to improve progress (CCC, 2021[43]).
In its advice to Government for the CCRA3, the CCC recommends the integration of ten principles for good adaptation into NAPs and devolved adaptation programmes (CCC, 2021[44]). The ten principles include: setting out a vision for a well-adapted UK; integrating adaptation into policies; adapting to 2°C and assessing the risks up to 4°C; avoiding lock-in; preparing for unpredictable extremes; assessing interdependencies; understanding threshold effects; addressing inequalities; considering opportunities from climate change; supporting the implementation of adaptation through resources and research (CCC, 2021[44]).
The CCC’s latest progress report applies a new framework that assesses 13 sectors, structured around assets or systems impacted by climate risks. Most significantly it increases the focus on tangible changes in the economy and across society and the environment, by identifying a set of outcomes needed to deliver climate resilience within each sector (CCC, 2023[45]). It also strongly expands on the assessment of the enabling conditions necessary to achieve the outcomes, and the role of public policy to bring them about.
The UK CCC’s evaluation method is based on a three-part framework (CCC, 2023[45]):
A monitoring map: this lays out a high-level goal or vision for what climate resilience in each of the 13 sectors assessed might mean, as well as 45 tangible outcomes that need to be in place to help deliver the outcomes (Figure 2.3). Through the maps, the CCC also identifies policy and planning milestones that need to be in place to achieve the outcomes. Furthermore, it assesses a set of enabling and contextual factors (which are largely independent of policy action but will nonetheless affect the ability of the outcomes to be delivered).
Evaluation of delivery and implementation indicators: Similar to the CCC’s previous measurement framework, the framework presents a set of indicators to gauge progress in the different elements of the monitoring maps. In addition, the CCC uses indicators to assess the enabling factors in place based on hazards, exposure and vulnerability data (Section 2.3). However, in many instances there are important data gaps or indicators are not sufficiently up to date to provide a current understanding of trends.
An assessment of progress against policy and planning requirements: As in its previous measurement methodology, the CCC documents recent developments in relevant policies and plans and assesses to what extent the relevant policy milestones identified on the monitoring maps are in place, to what extent they are appropriately ambitious, and whether there is appropriate monitoring and evaluation to allow them to function effectively.
The CCC assigns a score to the progress made for each sector’s identified outcomes. Two summary scores are identified, one for delivery and implementation (Table 2.3) and one for policies and plans (Table 2.4) to distinguish between important policy developments and evidence that adaptation outcomes are being delivered on the ground. The scores are given based on a number of criteria that are synthetised through expert judgement (Table 2.3 and Table 2.4).
Source: (CCC, 2023[45]), CCC Adaptation Monitoring Framework, https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/ccc-adaptation-monitoring-framework/#introduction.
Note: For policy and plans assessment, policies published up until March 2023 are included in the latest progress report
Source: (CCC, 2023[45]), CCC Adaptation Monitoring Framework, https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/ccc-adaptation-monitoring-framework/#introduction.
The UK has made efforts to improve its monitoring and evaluation system. Efforts began as part of NAP2, following criticism that the first NAP for England and reserved policy areas required clearer adaptation priorities; that it needed objectives that would be outcome-focused, measurable, time bound and under clear ownership; and that it needed to prioritise a core set of policies and actions that would have the greatest impact (CCC, 2017[46]). However, the CCC’s first review of NAP2 concluded that the “Government has failed to increase adaptation policy ambition and implementation through its latest National Adaptation Programme” (CCC, 2019[47]). The CCC’s second progress review of NAP3 in 2023 still finds very limited evidence of the implementation of adaptation at the scale needed to fully prepare for climate risks facing the UK (CCC, 2023[21]). This suggests that despite the monitoring, reporting and evaluation progress, CCC’s recommendations remain valid.
In its latest progress reports, the CCC flagged that NAP2 had limited objectives, targets or performance indicators that allowed the government or others to track progress in implementing the programme or its effects on exposure and vulnerability to climate change (CCC, 2023[21]). The third NAP has therefore set out a vision for a country that plans effectively for and is fully adapted to the changing climate, with clear risk reduction goals for addressing each risk identified in the latest CCRA (Defra, 2023[8]). Setting these risk reduction goals is a significant step forward, enabling an assessment of not only NAP3’s action implementation, but also whether the actions have contributed to achieving the risk reduction goals.
To the extent possible, the UK applies a theory of change in developing its adaptation policy objectives, with the aim of attributing the achievement of an objective to the linked policy action (Box 2.1). This approach is embedded in the latest progress report in the monitoring maps (see Figure 2.3 for an example). These maps specify tangible adaptation outcomes, a set of enablers, and policy milestones needed to deliver the outcomes and put in place the necessary enablers (CCC, 2023[45]). To develop the maps, the CCC organised workshops with relevant actors to test the adaptation pathways approach and separate out each intervention stage (policies, enablers, contextual factors, outcomes, and goals). The monitoring maps help to understand developments across all of these levels, providing a full picture of progress towards building climate resilience, and identifying key gaps in reaching adaptation goals. The maps also provide a degree of flexibility in the combinations of policies and actions possible to deliver effective adaptation and respond to changing contexts over time.
The theory of change (ToC) is a framework that aims to determine how a given action impacts the level of risk. It maps out the logical sequence of a programme (project or policy) from inputs to impact, and provides a non-linear way to consider what will change, and the underlying dynamics and assumptions around how and why change will occur. This concept reflects the Magenta Book’s guidance on establishing a project’s logic chains to set the emphasis on the expected causal relationships, including potential unintended consequences. The book underlines the importance of this mapping stage in a context, like adaptation, where policy or its setting is complex. The UK has applied this ToC approach in its third NAP (Table 2.5).
Note: *The activities category was added to the third NAP.
The CCC continues to find large gaps in the capacity to monitor and evaluate adaptation progress at the UK level. In 2019, the CCC published a set of adaptation indicators for Defra to populate, however, lack of capacity has meant that little progress had been made (CCC, 2021[43]). In 2021, the CCC urged the UK Government to improve its datasets and establish new ones where necessary, and to develop a detailed monitoring and evaluation framework to assess the effectiveness of adaptation actions to reduce the risks determined in the CCRA3 in NAP3 (CCC, 2021[43]). The latest progress assessment in 2023 reiterates the data gaps issue, notably for assessing adaptation outcomes (see Indicator frameworks in the United Kingdom/England). The CCC is urging the UK Government to introduce an effective adaptation monitoring and evaluation programme, with sufficient long-term funding, as a prerequisite to fill important data gaps (CCC, 2023[21]). To address the CCC’s recommendations, the third NAP sets out to develop new process and outcome indicators which will form part of a forthcoming monitoring and evaluation framework to evaluate the success of NAP3, and which will inform the CCC’s next progress report in 2025.
Source: (CCC, 2023[21]), Progress in Adapting to Climate Change: 2023 report to Parliament, https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/progress-in-adapting-to-climate-change-2023-report-to-parliament/
As a way to address data and information gaps and continue raising awareness, the UK 2008 Climate Change Act prescribed Adaptation Reporting Power (ARP) to the UK Government and Welsh Ministers, which allows the UK Secretary of State and Welsh Ministers to direct organisations to report on how they are addressing current and future climate impacts (UK Parliament, 2008[18]). This unique mechanism to enable a national government to collect data on public and private organisations can bring value to organisation and government reporting (Box 2.2).
The 2008 Climate Change Act gives the UK Government and Welsh Ministers the power to ask organisations, such as those responsible for public services and infrastructure (e.g. energy and transport companies), to produce reports on the current and predicted impacts of climate change on their organisation, and their proposals for adapting to climate change. There have been three rounds of reporting since its introduction, with a fourth underway during 2024:
In the first round of reporting (2010-12), over 100 organisations, primarily from the energy, transport and water sectors, reported on their risks, which were evaluated by a third party organisation (Defra, 2012[50]; Defra, 2012[51]).
The second round (2014-16) relied on a voluntary approach. This saw a lower level of participation and limited evidence of increased resilience from adaptation actions. An assessment of the costs and benefits of reporting for organisations was developed to increase stakeholder buy-in.
The third ARP reporting round (2019-21), also conducted on a voluntary basis, invited 89 organisations from a range of infrastructure sectors (water, energy, transport, environment, heritage, health and finance) and public bodies. While reporting improved, there remained gaps in coverage, with 20% of organisations still missing (CCC, 2022[52]).
Reports for the fourth round of reporting are due by the end of 2024, in time to be reflected in the CCRA. Over 130 organisations have been invited to report, including a group of local authorities to pilot reporting in the local government sector. Defra advises organisations to report on how climate risks will affect the delivery of their functions, in line with ISO 14090 on climate adaptation management.
The ARP is currently not employed by Ministers in Wales and does not apply to the devolved administrations of Scotland or Northern Ireland. In England, not all relevant organisations have reported under the ARP. For instance, certain organisations responsible for critical infrastructure and services, such as canals and food supply chains, were not covered in previous reporting rounds (CCC, 2021[43]).
The reports are reviewed by the CCC to understand the readiness of the various sectors. They are shared with relevant teams in the UK Government and thereby aim to inform the adaptation policy cycle. The ARP requires capacity to develop guidance on monitoring processes, co-ordinate within sectors, evaluate and learn from the reports. Its use in policy making could be enhanced through more consistent reporting across organisations on quantified risks and closer monitoring of actions and their benefits. It could consider the potential trade-offs between ensuring comparability and ownership by the reporting organisations when opting for a certain degree of standardisation in the reports.
The Scottish Government’s overarching vision for adaptation is to ensure that Scotland is a place where “built and natural places, supporting infrastructure, economy and societies are climate-ready, adaptable and resilient to climate change” (Scottish Government, 2019[30]). Scotland’s SCCAP sets out nine objectives for adaptation across three themes: natural environment (e.g. support a healthy and diverse natural environment with capacity to adapt); buildings and infrastructure networks (e.g. provide the knowledge, skills and tools to manage climate change impacts on buildings and infrastructure); and society (e.g. increase the awareness of the impacts of climate change to enable people to adapt to future extreme weather events). All three themes aim to understand the effects of climate change and impacts on the natural environment, buildings and infrastructure and society.
In viewing adaptation as a process, Scotland expects the country to be flexible and able to manage the uncertainty of climate change impacts. The nine objectives were developed through a consultation process involving 58 organisations during the preparation of SCCAP2, which also emphasised the need for an outcomes-based approach and the development of a monitoring and evaluation framework. The outcomes-based approach is driven by both the UN Sustainable Development Goals and Scotland’s National Performance Framework. The programme outlines policies, proposals and research for each of seven high-level outcomes (understood as overarching aims, which describe what the programme ambitions to achieve at the highest level), each split into sub-outcomes (Scottish Government, 2019[30]) (see Section 2.4.3).
As laid out in the Scottish Climate Change Act 2009, Scottish Ministers must provide an annual report on progress towards achieving the objectives and implementing the proposals and policies set out in the SCCAP. Under the act, public bodies are also required to provide annual reports on climate risk, adaptation action and future priorities, and – as of reporting year 2021-22 – what contribution the public body has made to help deliver SCCAP2, where applicable (Scottish Government, 2021[3]; UK Government, 2020[61]). The act also requires the government’s progress to be independently assessed, which was first done by the CCC in 2016, then in 2019, 2022 and 2023 (Scottish Government, 2021[3]; CCC, 2022[62]).
Scotland’s current SCCAP2 aims to capture the effect of actions over many years, understand how actions are driving outcomes, and make it easier to adjust adaptation in response to changes (Scottish Government, 2019[30]). Its progress report – covering Scotland’s communities, businesses and natural environment as well as their engagement with international partners – is structured to reflect the seven SCCAP2 high-level outcomes and sub-outcomes (e.g. progress towards our communities being inclusive, empowered, resilient and safe in response to the changing climate) and includes examples of progress in implementing the policies (Scottish Government, 2021[3]).
The progress report also notes that further work is needed to develop a monitoring framework for tracking progress towards achieving the SCCAP2 outcomes (Scottish Government, 2021[3]). ClimateXChange (CXC), a research centre that provides independent advice to the Scottish Government, has recommended a set of principles for the design and development of the SCCAP’s monitoring and evaluation framework, which is not yet operational. For example, it recommended that the framework links the adaptation process to adaptation outcomes and aims to discourage the listing of policies and actions without considering their potential effectiveness (Moss, 2019[63]). The CCC’s 2022 independent assessment criticised the annual reports for lacking a sufficiently in-depth assessment of what has and has not been achieved. It recommends that the Scottish Government sets specific and more ambitious objectives and actions, and develops appropriate indicators to best measure the achievement of these objectives (rather than only using indicators for which data are available) (CCC, 2022[62]).
The framework used for the CCC’s independent assessment of the SCCAP has evolved in line with the one used for the UK/England (see Section 2.3.1). The CCC’s latest progress report for Scotland applies the monitoring map, evaluation of delivery and implementation indicators and an assessment of progress against policy and planning requirements. This independent assessment complements Scotland’s progress by investigating the effectiveness of implemented actions in reducing climate risks, resulting in a more comprehensive measurement of progress (CCC, 2023[64]). The CCC concludes that since 2022 monitoring and evaluation of adaptation has been slowly improving (for example, the analysis of public body reporting), but remains limited, with insufficient data collection hampering adaptation efforts in many areas. For the next adaptation policy (SNAP3), due in 2024, the CCC highlights the need to ensure that there are quantified targets for climate resilience; that there are clear linkages between activities and outcomes, with clear ownership of delivery; and that an effective monitoring and evaluation system is implemented.
In Northern Ireland, the aim of “a resilient Northern Ireland, which will take timely and well-informed decisions to address the socio-economic and environmental impacts of climate change”, was agreed in the NICCAP2 following extensive central government and non-government stakeholder engagement exercises (DAERA NI, 2019[11]). The Northern Ireland Environment Link (NIEL), a network and forum for organisations interested in the natural and built environment, was commissioned by DAERA to work with stakeholders outside of government through the Climate NI project. The NICCAP2’s aim is backed by five priority areas and seven outcome objectives (DAERA NI, 2019[11]).
Each of the nine government departments in Northern Ireland is responsible for reporting on progress towards the objectives set out in NICCAP2 for which they are the responsible risk owners. The Climate Change Adaptation Sub-group led by DAERA reviews progress against NICCAP2 objectives across all departments annually. It is currently undertaking its Year 2 progress review.
In its NICCAP2, Northern Ireland has incorporated lessons learnt from an ex-post review of NICCAP1, in line with the requirement of Section 60 of the UK Climate Change Act 2008 (DAERA NI, 2019[11]). At the end of 2022, DAERA also conducted the Mid-programme Progress Review of NICCAP2, which provides a progress update on actions contained in the implementation plan (DAERA NI, 2022[65]). The review also developed 36 new measures to be included in NICCAP2 to address gaps identified.
In addition to the “stocktake” type review, DAERA also commissioned the CCC to carry out an independent review of NICCAP2 and provide recommendations for NICCAP3 (CCC, 2023[25]). As for Scotland, the CCC applied its latest measurement framework to this review of Northern Ireland’s progress in adapting to climate change. This complements DAERA’s mid-term review by assessing whether risk reduction objective outcomes have been achieved. The CCC finds that for two-thirds of the adaptation outcomes, the lack of relevant indicator data prevents the CCC from making a judgement on progress in delivery and implementation. The CCC recommends that the NICCAP3 closes these critical data gaps.
The 2030 vision of Wales is to be “a country which has the resources and is prepared, has the knowledge to understand the risk and challenges ahead and has the capacity to adapt to the impact of climate change” (Welsh Government, 2019[31]). It measures its success based on actions in three key areas: increasing knowledge, capacity and resilience to respond to climate change risk. The Welsh Government’s approach to developing actions in its climate change adaptation plan – Prosperity for All: A Climate Conscious Wales (PfACCW) – has been to use a theory of change to understand what is intended by each action and to determine the best way to monitor and evaluate progress (Welsh Government, 2020[16]).
The Welsh Monitoring and Evaluation Framework (MEF) has been developed to support the delivery of the PfACCW. It outlines a governance structure to monitor the plan’s delivery, as well as the interventions, outputs, outcomes and timelines for completion (Welsh Government, 2020[16]). Based on the MEF, in 2022 Wales published a report that assesses progress across eight sectors and indicates additional actions to respond to the CCC’s updated climate risk advice (Welsh Government, 2022[66]). The report outlines research activities and actions undertaken and next steps to fully implement the PfACCW. While the MEF recommends using a combination of qualitative and quantitative indicators to demonstrate the role of adaptation in addressing complex multi-causal risks, the progress report follows a predominantly qualitative stocktaking approach, without assessing outputs or outcomes of the actions implemented.
As with the governments of Northern Ireland and Scotland, the Welsh Government has asked the CCC to provide an independent assessment of progress in Wales (CCC, 2023[67]). Referring to the qualitative stocktaking approach of the Welsh Government’s own progress report, the CCC’s 2023 review concludes that for more than 50% of adaptation outcomes, the limited or absence of indicator data prevents it from conducting a full assessment of progress.
As highlighted above, a growing number of local authorities have established local adaptation strategies and plans, and some monitor and evaluate their plans (Box 2.3). A number of cities have also voluntarily signed up to Mayors Adapt, or to the EU Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy (e.g. Glasgow, Greater Manchester, Edinburgh and Leicester) (Covenant of Mayors, 2021[68]), thereby committing to reporting on adaptation progress every two years across the range of activities in their cities.
In Northern Ireland, civil society and local governments contribute to tracking progress on implementing the NICCAP2 actions, including for the mid-term evaluation. An online submission form on climate risks and adaptation measures was developed by Climate NI, as a deliverable of their contract with DAERA, to track methods, programmes and outcomes of adaptation actions by local councils (Climate NI, 2019[69]). As set out above, in Scotland, public bodies including local authorities are required to report annually on any relevant contributions to the SCCAP.
However, there is a disconnect between information gathered from local plans and reviews, and the national level, despite the substantive inputs they could provide into national monitoring. Between 2008 and 2010, all English local authorities were required to report against a performance indicator related to adaptation (National Indicator 188). They had to self-report their level of action, ranking it from level 0 (climate risks not assessed) to level 4 (adaptation action plan implemented and process for monitoring and review established) (UK Government, 2010[70]; EAC and House of Commons, 2010[71]; UK Government, 2013[72]). Although it was largely process-oriented, it helped to demonstrate progress before it was discontinued. As of 2021, there is no UK-wide level assessment of adaptation at city/local county level, which reflects the general limited nature of the evidence of local-level adaptation measurement (EEA, 2020[58]). Local authorities have no reporting requirement under the 2008 Climate Change Act, despite local-level work and knowledge-sharing within and across sectors being useful for developing consistent and robust adaptation plans (UK Government, 2020[2]).
Hampshire County Council (HCC), which includes close to 2 million inhabitants, has developed a climate change strategy and a framework for strategic programmes (2020-25). The aim is for the county to be carbon neutral and to build resilience to a 2 degrees Celsius rise in temperature by 2050 (Hampshire County Council, 2020[73]). In addition, an action plan lists 200 actions across departments, along with indicators and outcomes for each action. Progress on the implementation of the plan is reviewed qualitatively and reported on annually. The first progress report was published in 2021 (Hampshire County Council, 2021[74]).
In parallel, HCC has developed decision-making support tools, rolled out across the county since 2021, to assess climate impacts on individual council projects. They set a vulnerability score which can be applied across all the council’s diverse services. They aim to provide a clear, robust, and transparent way of assessing how projects, policies and initiatives contribute towards HCC’s climate change targets and mainstream climate considerations into the local authority’s activities. The tools have helped to increase awareness and understanding of how decisions contribute to climate change mitigation, and how climate change will affect decisions.
The UK is party to several international agreements, including the Paris Agreement, the Sendai Framework for Risk Reduction, Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Development, the Ramsar Convention and the Convention on Biological Diversity (UK Government, 2020[2]; GIZ, 2017[77]). These frameworks set objectives to achieve sustainable development, reduce disaster risk, and conserve environmental habitats and species. They all have synergies with or address the need for adaptation to climate variability and change (UNFCCC, 2012[78]; OECD, 2020[79]). The UK reports on its activities for achieving the objectives under all these agreements. For instance, it conducts a Voluntary National Review of Progress on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
In 2017, the UK submitted its 7th National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (a four-yearly binding requirement) and its first Adaptation Communication in 2020, followed by an update in 2021 (UK Government, 2020[2]; UK Government, 2021[20]; BEIS, 2017[80]; UNFCCC, 2017[81]). In advance of COP26, the Scottish Government published an indicative Nationally Determined Contribution document, including a summary of the approach to adaptation in Scotland (Scottish Government, 2021[82]).
The UK also aligns particular areas of adaptation with respective international frameworks. Most notably, biodiversity indicators are reviewed to fit with the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction has established a monitoring process, including indicators (UNDRR, 2021[83]).
Like many other countries, the UK faces difficulties in overcoming certain measurement challenges, notably linking greater resilience to specific policy actions (attribution), aggregating information across scales, and dealing with the uncertainty surrounding adaptation interventions (OECD, 2021[84]).
While there is growing experience of tracking progress across OECD countries, including the UK, there is a need to move towards understanding the outcomes and impacts of policies and actions. Attribution aims to evaluate the contribution of an adaptation policy or action to a certain outcome. It is, however, difficult to identify the factors that shape adaptation outcomes, notably because of the long timescales of adaptation interventions. Adaptation is an ongoing process that is mainstreamed across various policy areas and unfolds in a changing context. As a result, adaptation outcomes are intertwined with other drivers (e.g. population growth) (Bours, McGinn and Pringle, 2014[85]). It is also difficult to distinguish inter-annual variability from long-term trends. Thus, being able to attribute impacts to actions requires constant monitoring. It is important to understand the role of formalised attribution study following an event for developing and attributing impact indicators to track changes in impacts. The disaggregation of the data is also a challenge because the evidence available on risks cannot always be broken down into specific actions. It is therefore important to understand the context of the action and how non-adaptation factors (e.g. natural variability) influence its success (Bours, McGinn and Pringle, 2014[85]). In Scotland, for example, non-domestic water consumption has continued to decrease, but it is not possible to assess whether the decrease is attributable to water efficiency actions (based on the indicator CXC 2018 Indicators Non-domestic water usage) (CCC, 2019[86]).
Defra, in its NAP3, acknowledges the challenges of tracking progress to a moving target in a system with interacting and cascading climate and socio-economic risks, the mismatch between short evaluation cycles and the time needed to effect change. The NAP therefore recommends that policy officials identify accompanying process and outcome indicators when developing policy responses for the 61 risks or opportunities (Defra, 2023[8]). The CCC has also made efforts to produce new indicators of impacts (e.g. prevalence of flooding impacts, deaths from overheating, or monetary impacts of climate-related water shortages). In cases where explicit policy goals exist, the AC considers how likely these are to be met in the face of climate change (CCC, 2020[41]). There are ways to provide a clear description of the system being monitored and hypotheses or causal chains outlining how policies and actions are likely to contribute to an intended objective (Klostermann et al.[87]; Price-Kelly et al., 2015[88]). The CCC’s adaptation monitoring maps, developed as part of its new measurement methodology (described above, see Figure 2.3), illustrate how sectoral goals can be linked with outcomes needed to deliver the goals, as well as policies, enablers and contextual factors to achieve the outcomes. This is a positive step to begin to address the uncertainty around how much change can be attributed to the effectiveness of actions (OECD, 2021[84]).
The measurement framework in the UK and devolved administrations is cross-sectoral (natural environment, people and built environment, business and infrastructure), and thus related to the remits of a number of government departments. The number of sectors involved and the diversity of the dimensions of the expected outcomes can make it difficult to aggregate the results at the UK level. Metrics used in certain sectors may not be appropriate at the aggregate level due to the context specificity of climate risk and adaptation interventions (Christiansen, Martinez and Naswa, 2018[89]). Although monitoring and reviewing can help support policy making at different levels of government, the international, national and local levels may have different scopes and objectives in their reviews. However, certain topics can be aggregated or connected through indicators (EEA, 2020[58]). The four devolved administrations have their own monitoring and evaluation frameworks. The CCC’s recent efforts in assessing progress of all four devolved administrations by applying the same methodology is a strong enabler for aggregating progress at the UK level. Nevertheless, different indicators may be required to evaluate progress towards the same outcome in different parts of the UK because some datasets do not have UK-wide coverage (CCC, 2023[45]). For example, the Environment Agency collects data on flood risk in England, whereas other organisations collect flood risk data in other parts of the UK.
Another inherent complexity in measuring progress on adaptation is due to uncertainty over how climate will unfold in a particular location. To address this, the CCC scores the quality of plans and whether actions demonstrably reduce either vulnerability or exposure to two possible temperature scenarios. It reviews actions across all sectors to see whether they are adequate in a 2°C world, and whether adaptation to a 4°C world has been considered (CCC, 2020[41]). As it can be unclear what policy makers need to be measuring, regular reviews of indicators to ensure that the measurement and indicator frameworks are still relevant are key. This is done by the CCC, as well as the Defra team when reviewing the indicator framework attached to the 25-Year Environment Programme (YEP).
Cross-sector interactions can become significant drivers of overall risk. The CCC has highlighted that the vulnerability of interconnected systems may be significantly underestimated. The wide-ranging nature of the linkages within and across sectors lays the foundation for potential cascading failures caused by the climate hazards identified in the third CCRA (e.g. from flooding, reduced water availability, increased temperatures and wildfire, as well as potential increases in storms) (CCC, 2021[44]). The effects of climate change adaptation will interact with other pressures, such as population and demographic transition, economic dynamics, or land use change. For these reasons, the CCC has adapted its measurement methodology to assess contextual factors affecting sectors’ exposure and vulnerability to climate hazards (e.g. population growth by region, age) (CCC, 2023[21]). Furthermore, the CCC has made efforts to assess inter-dependencies among different areas and systems, such as infrastructure, nature and socio-economic factors.
The UK and its three devolved administrations have each developed specific indicator frameworks for tracking progress to accompany their adaptation policy cycle. The indicators usually cover topics identified in the risk assessment and in the adaptation plans (Table 2.6).
Up until the 2023 progress report, the CCC used two sets of indicators for reporting on adaptation on a two-year cycle: i) a cross-sector indicator framework; and ii) the NAP monitoring tracker to monitor the 253 actions listed in England’s NAP2. In its 2023 framework, and with the development of monitoring maps, the CCC has expanded and targeted indicators to capture progress towards each identified outcome across 13 sectors. This now involves close to 600 indicators (Table 2.6). This evolved set of indicators has allowed the CCC to significantly increase its focus on outcome-related indicators. The complete set is the result of an iterative research process in which the CCC has regularly updated and added indicators (2017, 2019, 2021, 2023), in line with its role to review indicator frameworks based on the most recent CCRA (CCC, 2021[43]).
As discussed above, the CCC’s monitoring maps (Figure 2.3) showcase indicators related to outcomes, as well as enablers, plans and policies, and climate risks (or contextual factors) (Figure 2.4). Based on these, the CCC assigns a three-level score (good, mixed, insufficient) to each of the 13 sectors’ objectives (see United Kingdom/England section). The enablers, which correspond to 30% of all indicators (Figure 2.4), are elements that need to be in place to achieve the outcomes. They include funding and investment, research, engagement and education, and are different to policies or plans. In previous assessments, these were considered as input indicators. An additional 20% of indicators relate to policies and plans to help track whether key roles and milestones for public policy and planning are in place. These include the adoption of regulations, standards or plans, or the mainstreaming of topics or targets into relevant plans, policies or financial instruments (CCC, 2023[21]). While neither enabler or policy indicators show whether vulnerability has been reduced, they can be used to analyse climate change preparedness (Klostermann et al., 2015[87]).
The CCC scores progress made in implementing key policies and plans individually based on a four-point scale: credible, partial, limited, and insufficient policies considered to be in place (Table 2.4) (CCC, 2023[45]). This aims to assess the overall strength of policies and plans in place to achieve each sector’s objectives, and also aims to close the gap identified in NAP2 in which risk magnitude was growing despite progress on completing actions. With the publication of NAP3, it will remain important to have a clear and assigned monitoring tool in place to assess the implementation of the plan’s actions. Previous annual progress reports indicate that half of the 370 actions included in the UK NAP were completed in 2017, while 35% were on track for completion (CCC, 2017[46]; 2019[47]).
The majority of the monitoring maps’ indicators are defined as outcome indicators (Figure 2.4). They indicate whether actions have increased resilience or reduced climate risks, climate impacts, economic damage or negative effects on human health. They include factors such as a reduction in building permits issued for high flood-risk areas; or whether adaptation measures have reduced the magnitude of infrastructure service disruptions caused by extreme weather; or a reduction in flooding damage recorded. There are overall outcome indicators that are often measured by more than one sub-indicator. For example, the outcome “Protected and resilient habitats” is measured by two sub-indicators: the state of priority habitats for biodiversity in England, and the proportion of terrestrial Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSIs) in England classed as “recovering” (Table 2.7). The sub-indicators used to measure the outcomes might not be listed in the monitoring maps, but are available in the progress report.
Compared to its previous framework, the CCC’s new framework comprises both immediate changes to the environment, society and economy, as well as longer-term climate impacts. It also includes direct outputs, such as the level of achievement of risk reduction measures, which classify as tracking adaptation actions. There are both shorter-term outcomes, such as trends in restored habitats or species abundance, and longer-term outcomes that indicate a climate impact (i.e. change in climate-related losses and damages). These might include weather-related delays and incidents on rail networks or in ports; annual damage from coastal and river flooding; agricultural losses from drought or heat-related mortality.
Note: The indicators developed as part of the monitoring maps are indicative. Not all of them are measured in practice due to lack of data availability. Some indicators are used to assess multiple sectors but are not counted twice.
Source: Authors, based on (CCC, 2023[21]), Progress in Adapting to Climate Change: 2023 report to Parliament, https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/progress-in-adapting-to-climate-change-2023-report-to-parliament/
However, it is difficult to rely on outcome, or climate impact, indicators for assessing adaptation progress because of the challenges of disentangling year-to-year variability from long-term trends. It is also difficult to attribute results to drivers, which could be a change in hazard levels, or socio-economic factor or the result of adaptation actions. For climate impact indicators to be robust, they would need to have a sufficiently long record (multi-decade at least) and one needs to be able to isolate the effects of climate change from other pressures, an area in which the science is improving. The CCC considers these indicators to have great potential use in the long term, once attribution becomes more feasible (CCC, 2019[47]). The CCC assesses quantitative data where possible, but for some important aspects that are difficult to measure quantitatively, such as the mental health impacts of climate change, the CCC uses a qualitative approach, often referring to academic studies or expert judgement.
Note: Only indicators that can be measured are listed; however, additional “wishlist” indicators exist.
Source: (CCC, 2023[21]), Progress in Adapting to Climate Change: 2023 report to Parliament, https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/progress-in-adapting-to-climate-change-2023-report-to-parliament/
Each of the 13 sectors are assigned a number of outcome, enabler and policy indicators, as well as climate risk indicators on hazard, sector-specific indicators on exposure and vulnerability. While some sectors are associated with a high number of outcome indicators (e.g. the natural environment, working land and seas, transport, and urban areas), sectors such as food security, telecommunications and ICT, community preparedness, energy, and water supply only use a few outcome indicators to assess progress (Figure 2.5). Sectoral differences also exist for policies and enabling factors. The maps cover climate risk indicators to a smaller extent; these are considered as contextual factors (see Figure 2.4 and Table 2.8 for examples). For five sectors, the framework does not assess climate risk indicators at all (Figure 2.5).
Number of indicators
Note: Some indicators are used to assess multiple sectors, but are not counted twice.
Source: Authors, based on (CCC, 2023[21]), Progress in Adapting to Climate Change: 2023 report to Parliament, https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/progress-in-adapting-to-climate-change-2023-report-to-parliament/
Source: (CCC, 2023[45]), CCC Adaptation Monitoring Framework, https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/ccc-adaptation-monitoring-framework/#introduction
The indicators were selected based on their relevance, practicality, and replicability over time, even if no data were available. The monitoring maps include indicators considered important, including for which data availability is insufficient or whose time series is too short to be meaningful. This approach began with the addition of “wishlist” indicators in the CCC 2021 progress report. For nearly 40% of adaptation outcomes, the lack of relevant and up-to-date indicator datasets prevents an assessment of outcomes. The sectors with the largest data gaps are telecommunications and ICT; food security; buildings (e.g. data tracking the overall scale of property flood resilience implementation); finance (e.g. data on financial exposure to climate risks are limited); transport (e.g. incomplete data on ports and airports); energy; and business (e.g. exposure and vulnerability of business assets, business access to credit and insurance, and worker productivity is largely unquantified, supply chains) (CCC, 2023[21]). There are also gaps in data for assessing the ecosystem health of land and seascapes, the implementation of nature-based solutions, and the size and connectivity of habitats.
Through this indicative approach of showing what outcomes need to be assessed, the CCC’s monitoring maps provide a useful way to highlight the data gaps for evaluating outcomes, including whether the datasets are partial, geographically incomplete, out-of-date, or lack sufficient measurement history to allow a trend in progress over time to be estimated (CCC, 2023[45]). Going one step further, the CCC also urges specific agencies to generate additional data and indicators where needed. For example, the CCC has asked Defra to develop a set of indicators for monitoring the impacts of weather and climate on telecommunication and ICT services (CCC, 2023[21]).
Progress in populating wishlist indicators, notably to assess outcomes, appears to have been made since the CCC’s 2021 progress report, when close to 60% of the indicators included were on the wishlist (CCC, 2021[94]). The CCC’s 2021 assessment concluded that current indicators for measuring progress and the effectiveness of adaptation actions were insufficient. Indicators did not necessarily align with the measurements needed to identify tangible reductions in climate risk or improvement in resilience. Instead they were more relevant to measure progress towards policy targets or legal requirements (CCC, 2021[43]). In 2023, the assessment concluded that 40% of the outcomes could not be assessed due to gaps in data availability. Defra, in the lead up to its third NAP, conducted a series of sector-specific workshops that brought together data owners, holders and users to share best practice and discuss challenges in developing adaptation indicators in response to the CCC’s 2021 assessment (Defra, 2023[8]) (CCC, 2021[95]; CCC, 2021[43]). Nonetheless the 2023 assessment still finds that the absence of relevant robust data is a key barrier to assessing adaptation outcomes.
In light of the shortage of indicators to enable a consistent assessment of the effectiveness of adaptation interventions over time, the CCC has identified areas that would benefit from future work to fill methodological and data gaps on outcome indicators, as follows (CCC, 2023[21]):
Natural environment: indicators to assess outcomes related to the effectiveness of restoring ecosystem health and improving climate resilience. Specifically, data and information to measure climate-resilient native species; future UK wildfire risks; effectiveness of nature-based solutions for adaptation; impacts of acidification, temperature and salinity on marine species; impacts on agriculture from unpredictable and unseasonal weather, such as yield and profit changes; crop/livestock losses due to flooding/heatwaves; and fish losses due to sea temperature rises or changes to ocean chemistry.
Working land and seas: data on exposure and vulnerability of the sector to climate change; impact of agricultural policies.
Transport: climate impacts on ports and airports.
Water supply: catchment storage capacity.
Buildings: effectiveness of property-level installations and how well they have worked in a flood event; number of buildings at risk of groundwater flooding.
Food security: climate risk of food companies’ supply chains; data on how the productivity of the agriculture sector is changing in relation to climate change.
Energy: exposure to hazards other than flooding.
Health: effectiveness of interventions to reduce overheating in health and social care facilities.
Community preparedness & response: effectiveness of different types of behaviour changes for adaptation.
Business: exposure and vulnerability of business assets; effectiveness of business actions to reduce climate risks; resilience of essential goods supply chains; impact of adaptation measures on size of insurance pay-outs; impacts on worker productivity.
Finance: key data on financial exposure to climate risks; impact of financial institutions incorporating physical risks into financial decision making; impact of investment portfolios on adaptation outcomes.
In addition, as part of the efforts to define the indicators, along with a timeline comes the difficulty of setting baselines. The most appropriate timing of a baseline might vary depending on the topic (e.g. start of the policy, average at some point in the past). For instance, the 25-YEP Outcome Indicator Framework (described below), used the launch year of the 25 Year Environment Plan (2018) as its indicator baseline, and considers additional frames of reference where relevant and appropriate (e.g. for indicators that relate to long-term trends such as changes in bird populations).
In parallel to the CCC’s efforts to develop indicators, several other institutions have established or are developing data and indicators that are relevant to adaptation. As they are already available, the CCC’s framework uses several of the data and indicators from these institutions. However, since many of these were originally designed for purposes other than to measure changes in climate risk, they can only be used as proxies (Box 2.4) (CCC, 2021[43]; CCC, 2023[21]).
In 2019, Defra published a set of indicators as part of the Outcome Indicator Framework to evaluate the effectiveness of policies and interventions in the 2018 25-Year Environment Plan (25-YEP). Updated in 2021, the framework contains 66 indicators, categorised into 10 environmental themes and following 16 headlines to help communicate progress towards the goals of the 25 YEP. It includes indicators that could suggest successful adaptation (e.g. enhancement of green/blue infrastructure), the need for adaptation (e.g. status of mammals, birds and fish) and that show the resilience of natural assets to climate change (e.g. state of the water environment). Other adaptation-relevant areas in the Outcome Indicator Framework include communities resilient to flooding and coastal erosion; quantity, quality and connectivity of habitats; water bodies achieving sustainable abstraction criteria; and health and wellbeing benefits. The review of progress occurs annually based on existing datasets from across relevant departments, and the indicator framework is reviewed every five years (Defra, 2018[42]; Defra, 2019[96]; Defra, 2021[97]).
Proxy indicators are often used to measure the outcomes and impacts of adaptation actions. Indicators are referred to as proxies when they are used as an alternative measure of progress on adaptation to fill a gap in the absence of relevant and accurate data, despite not directly measuring the impact of adaptation actions.
The CCC uses many indicators in the natural environment sector as proxy measures for adaptation, drawn from the annual UK Biodiversity Indicators report. For example, indicators related to the natural environment, such as peatland condition and species abundance, can be used as proxy indicators for the vulnerability of a habitat to climate change, where better condition and higher abundance can be interpreted as higher resilience. Similarly, the water and wetland bird index can give an indication of a habitat’s level of resilience, but does not reveal to what extent wetland restoration or lack of restoration have contributed to the index level, for instance.
In general, the use of proxies needs to be accompanied by caveats to avoid simplistic assessments of progress that can ultimately inaccurately classify adaptation actions as effective because proxies usually do not address the causal relationship between an adaptation policy and its outcomes and impacts. Choosing a proxy indicator may introduce a discrepancy between the measured proxy level and the actual impact of individual adaptation measures. The CCC acknowledges in its current measurement framework that multiple indicators need to be considered together to provide a full picture.
Source: (CCC, 2021[43]); (CCC, 2023[45])
Stakeholder engagement is an important part of the measurement process. It can help identify the suitability of existing data (What evidence will we need in order to know what is working?), source relevant quantitative and qualitative data, and also interpret the available data and derive relevant messages (Moss, 2019[63]). Defra has engaged with stakeholders and industry representatives to develop further indicators in response to the CCC’s recommendation to bring together expertise to identify, develop and source data for new indicators, create a framework for using them, and co-ordinate ongoing work to ensure indicators remain appropriate and relevant for helping streamline various processes (CCC, 2021[43]).
Institutions that are involved in the process of developing and using indicators that are relevant for adaptation include:
The Office for Environmental Protection, which is to conduct an independent scrutiny of the government’s progress towards meeting the 25-YEP goals.
The British Ecological Society (BES), which is investigating how a set of indicators may be developed to assess the effectiveness of adaptation actions in the natural environment.
The Environment Agency, which is exploring the design and use of indicators to measure progress towards the adaptation objectives set out in its Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management Strategy (CCC, 2021[43]). The Environment Agency has also initiated a project to design a new outcome-based corporate monitoring and reporting framework for adaptation to review progress in achieving adaptation outcomes (covering flood risk and other adaptation issues) across the organisation.
A new one-stop shop for statistics on climate change, developed in 2021 by the Office of National Statistics together with partners from across the UK Government. It showcases climate change statistical indicators in six areas (including climate and weather, impacts on nature and society) and aims to inform policy making (OSR, 2021[98]). The portal is expected to evolve through an iterative process to broaden the indicators included, providing a more comprehensive picture of climate change. Adaptation-related indicators cover woodland area, water leakage and pollinator species (UK Government, 2021[99]). There would be scope to align with the CCC’s indicator framework.
The Scottish Government has begun the process of developing their own adaptation indicator framework for the current SCCAP2. The framework is intended to include action and impact indicators for some of the high-level outcomes (Figure 2.6). Research supporting SCCAP2 set out potential baseline information and existing trends to assess how well Scotland is doing against the nine objectives of the SCCAP across three of seven themes (natural environment, buildings and infrastructure networks, and society).
Scotland’s full list contains 105 indicators, presented in 13 narratives, driven by policy need (ClimateXChange, 2016[90]). While just over one-third of the indicators indicate a trend (38 indicators), the majority either provide baseline data without a trend (44 indicators), or data over time but with no discernible trend (23 indicators) (Mäkinen et al., 2018[100]). They are presented along with the rationale for selecting them and the conclusions that may be drawn from them. They also come with baseline information to enable assessment over time and to document the nature and effectiveness of adaptation interventions (ClimateXChange, 2021[91]). For instance, excess deaths due to extremely cold temperatures are measured against the first available records, from 1951/52. They follow a framework to understand how they can lead to certain outcomes.
They were developed in consultation with 80 academic researchers and staff from 25 organisations and over 50 policy makers and stakeholders (ClimateXChange, 2016[90]). The SCCAP2 research programme aims to address specific evidence gaps outlined in the CCC’s progress report, for instance to measure soil health (Neilson et al., 2020[101]) and recovery from extreme events (Orr et al., 2020[102]).
The CCC’s independent assessment of the SCCAP applies a similar evaluation approach to its evaluation of England (see section on United Kingdom/England) (CCC, 2016[103]). Where possible, the CCC’s Scotland evaluation is based on the indicator set developed by ClimateXChange to assess progress on the SCCAP. For the independent assessments, the CCC gathered additional information through stakeholder interviews, and from public bodies’ duty reports and a wider literature review. In the 2019 assessment, the CCC concluded that key data and evidence gaps were hampering progress assessments for a number of priorities. It also recommended Scotland to improve the measurement of vulnerability. In 2022, the CCC assessed progress on indicators for which data were available and recommended that the Scottish Government rely more on the most relevant, adaptation-related indicators recently or soon to be developed as part of other environmental frameworks, such as the Environment Strategy 2021 or Scotland’s Forestry Strategy Implementation Plan 2020-22.
Source: (Scottish Government, 2019[30]), Climate Ready Scotland: Second Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme 2019-2024
Indicators in other devolved administration programmes are less detailed. In Wales, a largely qualitative approach is taken to monitor and evaluate progress, as the Welsh Government considered the quantitative indicators would provide limited insights into implementation in the context of the methodologies available at the time. It does however consider the use of quantitative indicators where the action is clearly reflected in the indicator, and where resources are available for measuring them (Welsh Government, 2020[16]). The Welsh Government intended to develop adaptation indicators for the level of uptake, and the subsequent performance of adaptation planning across Wales, such as the number of Health Board Plans which focus on planning for climate risks. It also intends to develop multi-faceted strategy-level indicators to cover the level of adaptive capacity, and the degree to which key tasks described in the guidance have been implemented (Welsh Government, 2013[104]). Indicators from the CCC, Defra and Welsh Government National Indicators are taken into consideration in its framework (Welsh Government, 2020[16]).
In Northern Ireland, an initial set of indicators has been developed in consultation with all government departments and DAERA’s Analytical and Services Branch (DAERA NI, 2019[11]). They have been assigned, where possible, to relevant NICCAP2 outcome objectives (Table 2.9). They aim to provide a mechanism to evaluate the progress made towards delivering the objectives (Defra, 2019[1]).
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← 1. Adaptation policy in the UK is a devolved matter. The UK Parliament has transferred a range of powers to the Scottish Parliament, National Assembly for Wales and the Northern Ireland Assembly and Executive. Matters that remain the responsibility of the UK Parliament are referred to as "reserved matters", and include national security and defence, insurance, aspects of the infrastructure/energy network, and food/energy supply.
← 2. The UK National Adaptation Programme covers England and some reserved matters.
← 3. Such as the Environment Agency and Natural England, an executive non-departmental body.
← 4. Some risks are owned by private sector bodies (e.g. water companies).
← 5. Local government systems are different in each of the four devolved administrations, and can be responsible for a range of community services, including environmental matters, firefighting, housing, planning, etc.
← 6. Adaptation policy is a devolved matter in the UK.
← 7. Article 7 of the Paris Agreement requires parties to submit and update periodically an adaptation communication, which may include information on its priorities, implementation and support needs, plans and actions. The UK submitted its first adaptation communication in December 2020 and updated it in October 2021.
← 8. 2021 UK Climate Risk Independent Assessment (CRIA) for CCRA3 (previously called the Evidence Report for CCRA2 in 2017).
← 9. The first evidence report (2012) was prepared by Defra, while the subsequent reports (2017, 2021) were independently prepared by the Adaptation Committee.