This chapter presents the results of the country case study of Chile. It documents the policy and institutional context for adaptation in Chile and discusses the efforts, achievements, and remaining gaps for measuring progress on adaptation. It also reviews Chile’s adaptation indicator frameworks.
Measuring Progress in Adapting to a Changing Climate
Insights from OECD countries
Abstract
For over a decade now, Chile has developed robust adaptation policies, recently underpinned by its 2022 Climate Change Law. Much of the experience gained helped establishing these elements in the law and, as a result, a sophisticated legal and institutional framework that guides adaptation efforts across national, regional and local levels. Under this framework, Chile improved its adaptation measurement framework to assess progress in the implementation of national, sub-national and sectoral adaptation plans. The current development of Chile's second National Adaptation Plan aims to address gaps in Chile’s understanding of progress and effectiveness in implementing adaptation policies.
The measurement framework is designed to better understand sectoral and sub-national adaptation progress. It is based on a system of annual and biennial reporting by the Ministry of Environment that collects data from institutions responsible for implementing adaptation measures. The annual reviews focus on the implementation status of adaptation actions, measuring the extent to which these actions have been executed relative to their planned objectives and the financial resources invested. The biennial Climate Change Action Reports provide an overview of adaptation progress, covering the Long-Term Strategy, the Nationally Determined Contributions, and sectoral as well as regional plans. Under the Climate Change Law, Chile has institutionalised a series of feedback mechanisms designed to uphold transparency and accountability across implementing agencies and ensure that findings guide the strategic direction of future adaptation efforts. Chile has also developed a roadmap setting out the use of a theory of change approach and the development of further indicators to strengthen its measurement framework and to better understand how the actions that are implemented enable to achieve policy outcomes.
To support its adaptation measurement efforts, Chile has created information systems that communicate climate risk assessment information and that guide the prioritisation of adaptation measures. The cornerstone of this is the Climate Risk Atlas (ARClim), through which Chile presents current and projected climate threats according to the worst-case scenario of the IPCC and assesses 80 current and projected climate risks and impacts at communal level. The platform is being expanded to become a comprehensive adaptation information system covering indicators and additional information on sub-national and sectoral adaptation progress. Chile is looking to integrate the adaptation platform with further information systems on climate change research and citizen participation to facilitate easy and comprehensive access to climate information, thereby enhancing informed decision making. Driven by the Climate Change Law, which sets ambitions to further develop sub-national indicators, several regions in Chile are including and assessing sub-national progress indicators in their regional adaptation plans. The platform is publicly available, enabling stakeholders to assess risks based on their exposure and vulnerability and provides data that can be used, among other applications, to meet the current obligation to incorporate the evaluation of climate risks in the projects presented to the Environmental Impact Assessment and the Strategic Environmental Assessment.
Adaptation-related indicators have been included to differing extents in Chile’s adaptation policies. Currently, Chile assesses implementation by indicating the percentage level of achievement of each measure in the Climate Change Action Plan. As part of ARClim, Chile has established so-called impact indicators (such as the impact of temperature rise on transmission lines or productivity change in crops). Furthermore, Chile is looking to build a comprehensive set of cross-sector climate risks to better understand the interconnection between sectors and to avoid maladaptation. Chile is planning to expand indicator coverage in its second National Adaptation Plan, with a view to assessing progress across sectors and different levels of government.
In 2022, Chile adopted the Climate Change Framework Law (Law 21.455) (the Climate Change Law), which establishes the framework for adaptation policies, institutional arrangements, as well as information systems related to climate change at the national, regional and local levels. In addition, the Long-Term Strategy sets out directions for adaptation and mitigation over a 30-year horizon (Government of Chile, 2021[1]). It was developed through a multi-stakeholder, multi-level and transparent participatory process to build an inclusive and representative vision. The Long-Term Strategy acknowledges that the adaptation process is an iterative cycle. It contains long-term objectives and goals for 11 of the 12 adaptation sectors in the Climate Change Law, which were developed by the sectors themselves (Table 3.1). The Climate Change Law stipulates that the Long-Term Strategy will be updated every ten years. The Climate Change Law also states that the milestones and intermediate targets for achieving Chile’s long-term objectives will be set out in the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). Chile presented its updated NDC in 2020, which included an adaptation component of developing, updating and implementing, as appropriate, sectoral plans and regional action plans. The NDC also committed to developing an adaptation monitoring and reporting system (Government of Chile, 2020[2]).
The Climate Change Framework Law outlines clear obligations and sets deadlines for the development and updating of policies and tools for the 12 priority sectors, 16 administrative regions, and 346 municipalities. It also creates the enabling conditions for a more sustainable and robust adaptation measurement system. It notably requires the Long-Term Strategy to include criteria for monitoring, reporting, and verifying the compliance of actions with the goals and measures, and to ensure transparency in the monitoring, quality and consistency of the data reported.
At the national level, the first climate policy cycle started with the National Climate Change Action Plan I (2008-12) (hereafter referred to as CC Action Plan I), which was structured around 3 pillars of action: mitigation, adaptation, and capacity building. In terms of adaptation, it established the commitment to develop a National Adaptation Plan (NAP) and 7 sectoral plans. In response to this, the first milestone was the publication of the adaptation plan in 2014. The NAP’s established new institutional arrangements, now recognised by the law (the Technical Inter-Ministerial Committee on Climate Change at a national level and the Regional Climate Change Committees, at a regional level) and called for the elaboration and implementation of the sectoral plans and the enhancement of the country’s capacities to prepare for climate risks.
A mid-term evaluation of the CC Action Plan I in 2011 and an external evaluation (built on expert consultations) in 2015 contributed to the development of the CC Action Plan II (2017-22). The CC Action Plan II aimed to strengthen the foundations laid by the NAP 2014, regarding the assessment of vulnerability and the implementation of actions, and expanded to nine the number of sectoral plans (Table 3.1). The CC Action Plan II also included measures to develop metrics and progress indicators to assess the effectiveness of adaptation processes, as well as to establish a reporting system for adaptation. However, capacity and resource limitations hindered the achievement of this objective. The Climate Change Framework Law does not include the CC Action Plan as part of its climate change management instruments, making this policy obsolete.
A second National Adaptation Plan is currently being developed, expected for 2024, with the aim to address the gaps and needs that were identified during an external evaluation of the first NAP carried out in 2021. These include the monitoring, reporting, and evaluation system. It is planned to develop a more user-friendly, transparent, and robust measurement system, to be integrated into the information systems established by the Climate Change Law (Section 3.4).
In addition, the Climate Change Law requires the development of a series of sectoral and sub-national adaptation plans within the next three years, as follows:
Sectoral Adaptation Plans: These should be in line with the Long-Term Strategy, be developed by the respective sectoral ministries and updated every five years. The plans should assess the sector’s climate risks and impacts, outline measures, identify barriers and spell out indicators.
Climate Change Regional Action Plans: The Climate Change Law requires the Regional Climate Change Committee to develop plans for the 16 administrative regions. Covering mitigation, adaptation and means of implementation, they need to be aligned with the Long-Term Strategy, the sectoral plans for mitigation and adaptation, communal plans for mitigation and adaptation, as well as strategic water resource plans for basins, where they exist (there are also 101 main water basins considered in different plans related to climate change adaptation).
Climate Change Communal Action Plans: The Climate Change Law requires municipalities to develop plans for all 346 communes. They need to outline vulnerability and potential impacts of climate change, mitigation and adaptation measures, as well as measures related to means of implementation and indicators.
The Climate Change Law further instructs national policy documents to be developed in line with Chile’s international commitments and encourages the mainstreaming of adaptation within policies and instruments in land-use planning, disaster risk management and environmental impact assessments.
Note: * Now obsolete with the adoption of the Climate Change Law. ** Twelve sectors are included in the Climate Change Law. *** The sectoral plan on water resources was delayed due to some complexities, primarily institutional co-ordination. **** as of May 2024.
The Climate Change Law defines the responsibilities of the various actors and institutionalises national and sub-national co-ordination bodies. Figure 3.1 presents the institutional arrangements at the national and regional levels.
At the national level, the Ministry of Environment oversees the development and implementation of environmental and climate policies, and prepares, reviews and updates the Long-Term Strategy and the NDC. It co-ordinates the adaptation policy process in close collaboration with the sectoral ministries, supported by an inter-sectoral and multi-level governance body. The Ministry of Environment ensures the coherence of the different instruments at sectoral, national and regional levels. It also ensures compliance with international conventions on climate change (the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is Chile's National Focal Point to the UNFCCC). In terms of adaptation measurement, the Ministry of Environment centralises information on progress on the sectoral plans and manages the Climate Adaptation Platform.
The Climate Change Law defines the following national co-ordination bodies and functions:
Technical Inter-Ministerial Committee on Climate Change (ETICC): has the main responsibility for adaptation measurement. It is a technical body composed of representatives of public sector institutions. The ETICC collaborates with the Ministry of Environment on the design, development, implementation, monitoring and updating of climate change policies by providing analysis for actions and measures. It also provides technical assistance to other national administration bodies and public services.
Council of Ministers for Sustainability and Climate Change:1 a political body that guides the country’s national climate agenda. It takes decision on the Long-Term Strategy, NDC, National Adaptation Plan and the sectoral mitigation and adaptation plans, and ensures coherence among them. The council is chaired by the Minister of the Environment and made up of the sectoral ministers.2
Scientific Advisory Committee for Climate Change (SACCC): a scientific body that provides advice to the Ministry of Environment based on scientific knowledge to design, implement and update climate change management instruments. The Secretary of the SACCC is the Ministry of Science, Technology, Knowledge, and Innovation.
National Council for Sustainability and Climate Change: a multi-sectoral body that issues opinions on climate management instruments, their progress, and the effects of their implementation. The council is made up of two scientists, two representatives of environmental NGOs, two representatives of independent academic centres in environmental matters, two business representatives, two workers’ representatives, one representative of the President of the Republic, and two representatives of youth organisations for environmental protection.
At both the national and regional levels, citizen participation plays a key role in the development of climate policy. The development of all instruments, policies, plans and programmes involves robust participation mechanisms that reduce uncertainty while promoting public consensus. A period of citizen participation and public consultation is a requirement for the approval of regional plans, as well as the opinion of the Regional Consultative Council of the Ministry of the Environment. The scientific work involves an exchange with the knowledge of the communities and their territories, as well as with indigenous people, providing a more comprehensive vision of progress in adaptation to climate change. A growing group of scientists supports various processes, including capacity building.
Including the private sector and civil society in adaptation measurement is a key challenge. It notably requires improving capacities and technologies, while ensuring transparency helps strengthen ownership of the information collected. ARClim is a tool that was designed for adaptation measurement purposes, as well as for making climate information more accessible to the private sector and citizens. Public-private information integration, increasing citizen science (i.e. participatory or voluntary monitoring) and environmental education are desirable goals for adaptation progress that have been included as part of the goals for the NAP updating.
The Climate Change Law defines the following sub-national co-ordination bodies and their functions:
Regional Committees: These are composed of the Regional Governor, who chairs the committee; the Regional Presidential Delegate and the sectoral Regional Secretaries; and representatives of the civil society-municipalities. Members of the Regional Council and the Environmental Advisory Councils may participate, with the right to speak. The Regional Committee is responsible for preparing the regional plans, thus participating directly in monitoring, reporting and verification, and evaluation. They must also define the objectives and instruments for climate change at the regional and local level, in line with the Long-Term Strategy, the sectoral mitigation and adaptation plans, communal mitigation and adaptation plans, and strategic plans for water resources. The Regional Committee also identifies financing sources and other means of implementation.
Regional Governor and Regional Presidential Delegates: these are political authorities in every administrative region. The regional plans are approved by resolution of the Regional Presidential Delegate with the prior favourable agreement of the Regional Government. The Regional Ministerial Secretaries are co-ordinated by the Regional Presidential Delegate, while the Regional Government responds to the Regional Governor.
Ministerial Regional Offices: these represent the sectoral ministries at the sub-national level. They carry out the sectoral management of climate change in co-ordination with the regional committee and in line with the regional plans.
Municipalities: According to the Climate Change Law, local governments shall prepare Communal Plans, in line with the regional plans, and can participate in the Regional Committee individually, or collectively through municipal associations. The municipalities can establish local climate action roundtables, with representatives of civil society and with a focus on vulnerable groups, to propose, prioritise, and implement climate change management actions, in co-ordination with the Regional Committee.
Regional Advisory Councils: these multi-sectoral bodies issue opinion and make proposals on climate management instruments, their progress, and the effects of their implementation.
The implementation of the NAP, CC Action Plans and sectoral adaptation plans is monitored annually by the Ministry of Environment, based on information collected from the institutions responsible. The results of this process are compiled in a report that is presented to the Council of Ministers for Sustainability and Climate Change and published on the Ministry of Environment’s website, and thereby contributes to informing priorities for action in the next policy cycle. The Controller General of the Republic of Chile also audits compliance with the mandates of the different plans. An additional external review was developed at the end of the first CC Action Plan cycle.
In addition, the Climate Change Law mandates the development of the National Climate Change Action Report every two years to monitor and report on progress, in line with the Biennial Transparency Report submitted to the UNFCCC. It covers the Long-Term Strategy, the NDC, CC Action Plan, as well as the sectoral, regional and communal plans. The report is prepared by the Ministry of Environment, in co-ordination with the ETICC, and must be approved by the Council of Ministers for Sustainability and Climate Change. The Ministry of Environment must also provide a public account of the progress of the report to the Chilean Congress. If the action report reveals delays in the implementation of the measures established in the sectoral plans, the sectoral ministers responsible must clarify the reasons for the lack of compliance to the Chamber of Deputies. The Chamber of Deputies plays a supervisory role in the governance of the action report and can determine the political responsibilities of the sectoral authorities.
The Long-Term Strategy aims to implement a measurement system as part of the forthcoming NAP. Covering national and sectoral adaptation measures, it will aim to standardise processes and indicators to make information comparable and reliable, to enhance synergies among the reports of different policies, and avoid duplication of work. The measurement system, which will be publicly accessible, will also aim to facilitate reporting on national and territorial adaptation progress to the UNFCCC, as well as provide access to information on climate change to facilitate citizens’ participation. In practice, however, the operationalisation of the adaptation measurement system requires the allocation of substantial financial and human resources to meet the deadlines established in the law. The Ministry of Environment, in collaboration with the responsible sectors, is working to define how the monitoring of the Long-Term Strategy goals and objectives, which includes a section on indicators, will be conducted.
Assessing the effectiveness of reducing climate risks is complex: it requires political commitment, conceptual and empirical agreement (e.g. on the variables to measure that help assess the result), and assigning responsibility in multi-sectoral contexts. In Chile, the institutions responsible for implementing adaptation measures carry out an assessment of progress that covers implementation (e.g. whether a measure been rolled out), the financial resources invested and their sources, and an overall "percentage progress" (e.g. what share of the total planned activities have been implemented, based on progress towards achieving goals or completing actions). Currently, this "percentage progress" is a value based on judgement by experts from the relevant institutions.
The external evaluation of the 2014 NAP concluded that the level of implementation of all cross-cutting measures (excluding measures in sectoral adaptation plans) had reached, on average, 72% of completion3 since its launch (Ministry of Environment of Chile, 2021[6]). The evaluation also attempted to understand the level of effectiveness using a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods.4 The evaluation was based on qualitative data obtained through interviews and workshops with the ETICC, where 24 questions were asked to assess the cross-cutting measures of the NAP and rationale for each response was sought. Examples of questions asked include:
How do the actions relate to the desired objective? Has the NAP been consistent with other national policies and plans? Does the measure include the necessary elements for proper monitoring and follow-up in its design? etc.
Additional analysis was based on binary responses (Yes/No responses), which helped identify factors with the highest correlation with the level of progress of the measures, i.e., those factors whose presence (Yes response) correlates with greater progress on the measures, and their absence (No response) with less progress.
Findings of a study completed in 2022 showed that the evaluation system could be strengthened to better understand the effectiveness of adaptation actions (CCG UC, 2022[7]). The study presented a roadmap for improving the measurement framework (Box 3.1).
One of the key limitations addressed by the roadmap was the lack of a theory of change approach to justify the choice of measures. This approach determines how implemented actions lead to short-term outcomes, and in turn to long-term impacts. The need to generate a theory of change with the various sectoral actors is one of the challenges for the next update of the NAP, and is one of the pillars of the roadmap. Furthermore, the roadmap sets out to develop qualitative indicators; integrated risk assessments,5 the development of 20 new climate risk indices, and the improvement of existing ones.
In 2022, Chile developed the Monitoring and Evaluation Roadmap (2022-2024), which is yet to be implemented, to strengthen the country’s adaptation measurement framework. It recommended strengthening and rolling out:
The conceptual framework for monitoring and evaluating policies: the roadmap presented actions such as agreeing on definitions, standards and criteria for adaptation indicators; and considering international and national frameworks to facilitate the establishment of a comprehensive vision for adaptation.
The strategic work plan for adaptation indicators: the roadmap presented actions to support sectoral needs for developing indicators and address conceptual challenges in attributing policies to outcomes. It also covered the need for a theory of change; cross-sectoral indicators; ways to illustrate the interconnectedness of climate risks; qualitative indicators; improved adaptive capacity indicators; gender indicators; mechanisms for continuous improvement; new impact chains; and mechanisms for collecting relevant data and information.
Institutional arrangements and governance: The roadmap listed actions to improve the design of the system and the involvement of various stakeholders, including to strengthen their engagement and validation.
Operationalising the monitoring and evaluation system: the roadmap identified technological and capacity-building requirements to improve transparency and facilitate feedback from information platform users.
Source: (CCG UC, 2022[7]), Informe Final “Desarrollo de indicadores para el monitoreo y evaluación del progreso de la adaptación al cambio climático a nivel nacional” [Final Report “Development of indicators for monitoring and evaluating the progress of adaptation to climate change at the national level”].
Several articles of the Climate Change Law refer to the establishment of information systems for both mitigation and adaptation, in particular the need to generate information for developing indicators to characterise and assess vulnerability and the risks and effectiveness of the measures in sectoral adaptation plans. The Climate Change Law mandates the creation of several information-sharing platforms.
A climate adaptation platform is being developed to serve as a national information system for adaptation, including vulnerability and climate risk maps, and current and future climate projections. The platform aims to support the design of public policies, the implementation of measures and their evaluation, and improve public knowledge on climate risks. This platform will be managed by the Ministry of Environment with the support of the Ministry of Science, Technology, Knowledge, and Innovation. Publicly available, the platform provides data that can be used, among other applications, to meet the current obligation to incorporate the evaluation of climate risks in the projects presented to the Environmental Impact Assessment and the Strategic Environmental Assessment.
The climate adaptation platform will be based on the existing Climate Risk Atlas platform (ARClim) (Box 3.2), which presents indicators and methodologies to define climate risk indices. Most of these indices were calculated considering the climate risk for all 346 communes (Figure 3.2). It is being refined to improve indicators and methodologies to assess climate risks and will be continuously updated to also include information on the regional and communal plans.6
Note: ARCLim is a web-based platform with dynamic visualization of the main risks in Chile.
Source: (Ministry of Environment of Chile, 2024[8]), Climate Risk Atlas, https://arclim.mma.gob.cl/.
In addition, a climate change scientific repository will be set up to collect scientific research related to climate change, managed by the Ministry of Science, Technology, Knowledge, and Innovation. A national system of access to information on climate change and citizen participation is also planned to promote and facilitate citizen participation in the preparation, updating and monitoring of climate change management instruments. This system will include the information platform and repository mentioned above and other information systems related to mitigation.
To make better use of the existing information, such as the indicators included in ARClim, it is essential to increase their dissemination and the technical and human capacities to deal with climate risk information at different scales, especially at the local level. The integration of the various existing information sources is also a growing challenge. This requires, among other things, increasingly co-ordinated work on the multiple platforms with existing socio-environmental information and institutional co-ordination.
The Climate Risk Atlas (ARClim) is a national climate risk assessment platform that contains climate projections with a spatial resolution of 5km and information on hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk from climate change at the communal level. The climate hazard explorer provides downloadable gridded data for all of continental Chile. Climate hazard indices were developed from General Circulation Models and downscaled with meteorological stations data to replicate the climate system and project future climate. Climate simulations were initially based on the CMIP5 initiative of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (WGII-IPCC) and were recently updated based on the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). Hazards consider climate change between the historical (1980-2010) and future (2035-2065) periods, under a pessimistic greenhouse gas emissions scenario or Shared Socioeconomic Pathway based on fossil fuel development (SSP5-8.5). ARClim identifies 62 distinct climate hazards across thematic areas encompassing heat, cold, precipitation (separated into rain and snow), wind, humidity, and insolation.
ARClim’s climate risk indices were developed following the guidelines of the AR5 by sectoral actors and the scientific community. Climate risk assessments are conducted individually for different impact chains across key social, environmental and productive sectors or systems, by considering hazard, exposure and vulnerability factors. Such assessments result in risk indices that can be interpreted as the potential magnitude of damage in the face of changing climatic conditions. ARClim estimates risk for 80 impact chains and 12 sectors at the local scale. These assessments helped prioritise adaptation actions to reduce exposure and vulnerability. Following the development of ARClim, the Global Change Centre project built new impact indicators and improved existing ones to close gaps related to adaptive capacity indices. Other climate risk assessments have focused on gender in mining, fisheries, and agriculture.
Sectoral impact assessments have been used as a basis for developing climate policies. In turn, the development of climate change adaptation instruments has allowed the creation of new risk assessments that have provided ARClim with updated impact chains, both at the sectoral and regional levels. While this dynamic and close relationship between science-based knowledge and decision-making in sectoral and regional adaptation is one of ARClim's main strengths, it also entails certain challenges. Ensuring a regular update of studies and continuous generation of useful and timely indicators is crucial to maintain a close alignment between risk assessments and policy priorities and objectives. Moreover, the ongoing process exchanging information between science and policy-making requires the establishment of a robust management system for updating and continually ensuring the quality of the platform's information.
Note: The Climate Risk Atlas (ARClim) project was funded by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ); co-ordinated by the Ministry of Environment and built through multidisciplinary work between the Centre for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2), the Catholic University’s Global Change Centre (CCG), and Meteodata.
Adaptation-related indicators have been included to varying extents in Chile’s adaptation policy documents (Table 3.2). The first NAP lacked indicators, a shortfall that the forthcoming NAP aims to address. Several of the approved sectoral plans also lack indicators. At the regional level, the plans include varying numbers of indicators depending on their scope. The indicators that will be part of the national indicator framework for adaptation are yet to be defined.
The aforementioned study of indicators (CCG UC, 2022[7]) identified a potential framework involving three groups of indicators, based on quantitative and qualitative information:
Implementation indicators: to measure progress in executing the instruments and their measures, including compliance with implementation goals and budget, deadlines, time management, and the entities that implement them, among others. Chile has advanced in recent years in the development of implementation indicators.
Progress indicators: the effect of adaptation measures on reducing vulnerability and exposure to climate change or increasing adaptation capacity and resilience. Although considerable work has been done to generate climate risk assessments through ARClim, the effective integration of these into public policies is still in its early stages. The NAP external evaluation flagged gaps in progress indicators (Ministry of Environment of Chile, 2021[6]).
Results indicators: these do not necessarily refer to a specific adaptation measure, but instead indicate how climate risk changes as a result of the adaptation process as a whole.
ARClim’s methodology is based on the development of so-called “impact chains”, which help understand the factors that contribute to climate impact in a specific system (e.g. natural, human, or productive). This builds on the concept of impact chains proposed by the German development co-operation agency (GIZ) and the International Institute of Sustainable Development (GIZ & IISD, 2014[10]). The development of impact chains in Chile has benefited from valuable sector-specific experts who contributed to the identification of climate impacts.
ARClim assesses impact chains through empirical and quantitative analyses in some cases, and also used expert interviews for qualitative assessment. A total of 62 climate risk indices formulated in through impact chains were developed in the Climate Risk Atlas when it was initially constructed. Table 3.3 shows selected impact chain indicators used in ARClim – those for which data are available.
Note: The project developed 11 new impact chains, one for each sector, and completed 11 impact chains from ARClim with adaptive capacity indicators. The indicators reflect different components of climate risk and impacts.
A gap remains in adaptive capacity indices for calculating the level of vulnerability. The Capacity-building Initiative for Transparency (CBIT) project aimed to reduce this gap by recalculating 11 of ARClim’s climate risk indicators, including adaptive capacity, and developing 11 new impact chains to improve the understanding of adaptive capacity and explore adaptation possibilities (CCG UC, 2022[7]). The process involved a series of workshops with stakeholders from key sectors to discuss aspects of adaptive capacity related to specific risks, and the weight to be assigned to the indicators and availability of information. The project has helped to advance the development of adaptive capacity indicators and to shed light on the effectiveness of associated measures. Table 3.4 presents an example of indicators for the impact chain “Operational downtime of energy ports”.
Source: authors, based on (CCG UC, 2022[7]), Informe Final “Desarrollo de indicadores para el monitoreo y evaluación del progreso de la adaptación al cambio climático a nivel nacional” [Final Report “Development of indicators for monitoring and evaluating the progress of adaptation to climate change at the national level”]
For each ARClim impact chain a detailed analysis of risk factors was developed (CCG UC, 2022[7]). The different impact chains incorporated the components of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability in different ways, while maintaining the characteristic that increasing the value of each component also increases the value of risk. ARClim identified 36 different climate hazard variables (e.g. “Increased precipitation intensity with respect to the current scenario” or “Variation in the combined occurrence of droughts and heat waves between historical [1980-2010] and future climate [2035-2065 under RCP 8.5 scenario]”). It also assessed exposure (e.g. number of individuals, species or activities present in a risk zone; metrics related to the performance level of a productive activity subject to risk; densities, areas and/or a combination of different aspects of a system that are summarised in an exposure index). It proved challenging to develop vulnerability indices because of the differences revealed in the working groups in defining the concept of vulnerability and its relationship with notions such as “sensitivity”, “susceptibility”, “dependence” or “resilience”, as well as its cross-cutting nature.
Nonetheless, of the 62 impact chains, 47 combine different factors of vulnerability and summarise them in vulnerability indices, generating specific indicators or using existing indices to determine the impact chain. Some working groups selected factors that influence specific sector vulnerability. For example, for the coastal areas sector, the vulnerability index for the impact chain “Beach erosion” is determined by a sensitivity index composed of the factor “structural sensitivity” and “normalised erosion rate”. Other working groups included broader and cross-cutting aspects (such as education and access to safety nets). Still other working groups relied on historical observations that identify which valuable elements have been more vulnerable.
Although vulnerability is approached through a combination of different factors that contribute to the resulting vulnerability, it could be linked to other factors that were not included in the index, or even the specific weight of each factor could vary, aspects that are not captured with this approach. The estimated vulnerability depends on the variables considered for the index construction, as well as the scales for each of the metrics included within the index. The methodological design of the vulnerability approach largely depends on the criteria of the working groups responsible for its development, compared to those chains that rely on historical statistics.
While ARClim provides a baseline assessment of climate risks and impacts at different geographical scales, further work is required to assess risks at settlement level, as well as interactions between different risks and aggregate risks at sector level. Regional and local indicator frameworks are not yet implemented in Chile. The Climate Change Law sets ambitious deadlines for closing this gap, notably by setting out to define the mechanisms and resources needed to establish adaptation measurement at sub-national scale.
ARClim can be used as a reference to build indicators for sub-national policies, and reciprocally the results from the sectoral and regional plans can be incorporated in ARClim. Climate risk assessments have been developed for the first four regional plans for the regions of Atacama, O’Higgins, Los Ríos and Los Lagos, including adaptation indicators. More recently, 18 new impact chains were developed to prepare the regional plan for the Coquimbo Region (Ramajo et al., 2022[11]). In the sectoral and regional plans of Los Ríos and Los Lagos, the scale for generating risk-related results is regional, which provides a broader estimation without considering local-scale specificities, unlike ARClim, which provides data at the municipal level.
The ARClim indicators were reviewed as part of the CCG study to identify those that could be grouped by sector (e.g. biodiversity, health, etc.). There are indicators that are also closely related to those from other frameworks such as water management and disaster risk reduction. Cross-sector indicators, such as protected land area, are relevant not just for biodiversity, but also for several sectors such as the agricultural, forestry, water, infrastructure and tourism sector and cross-cutting issues such as gender (Box 3.3). The study defined 21 relevant cross-sector indicators for climate adaptation in a participatory manner (CCG UC, 2022[7]). In addition, it identified 12 indices related to "provision sectors” (e.g. water resources, energy, infrastructure, and coastal zones), which affect the results in other sectors as well as the vulnerability indices. For example, the indicator on annual hours of closed ports (result indicator) is relevant for several sectors (e.g. agriculture, mining, infrastructure, fisheries).
However, as those indicators were not developed with an inter-sectoral approach they present several limitations for monitoring cross-sector adaptation. While the different indicators have relevance across policy areas and across different jurisdictions, cross-sector climate risk indicators and assessments are still a gap in monitoring and evaluation of adaptation to climate change in Chile. In particular, within the development and selection of indicators, the maladaptive potential must be analysed. In the Chilean case, maladaptive practices are mostly identified through a sectoral approach in relation to the impacts on other sectors, especially when considering systems interconnected by shared resources like water.
Efforts were carried out to identify indicators that have disaggregated statistical data by gender at the regional and municipal levels across a series of sectors to shed light on the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of women and to inform policy making. Some examples based on the ARClim impact chains are shown in Table 3.5. While it was observed that women have a higher sensitivity to climate change in general, the risk can be more unfavourable for either men or women depending on the impact chain. The adaptation measures proposed to address gender concerns include, for example, conducting workshops and training at the community level on the protection of water resources in households led by women; and creating mechanisms to achieve equitable participation between men and women in agricultural credit programmes, agro-climatic insurance and agricultural training initiatives.
References
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[9] CR2 (2015), Informe a la Nación La megasequía 2010-2015: Una lección para el futuro [Report to the Nation The 2010-2015 megadrought: A lesson for the future], Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2).
[10] GIZ & IISD (2014), Developing National Monitoring Systems and Adaptation Assessment: A Guidebook, https://www.iisd.org/publications/guide/developing-national-adaptation-monitoring-and-evaluation-systems-guidebook.
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[8] Ministry of Environment of Chile (2024), Atlas de Riesgos Climáticos [Climate Risk Atlas], https://arclim.mma.gob.cl/.
[6] Ministry of Environment of Chile (2021), Final External Evaluation of the National Adaptation Plan and the Sectoral Adaptation Plan for Biodiversity, http://catalogador.mma.gob.cl:8080/geonetwork/srv/spa/resources.get?uuid=ffb44b07-2b3f-4de0-837a-1a899a5be8a4&fname=Evaluacion%20PNACC-PACCBD.pdf&access=public.
[4] Ministry of Environment of Chile (2020), Informe de seguimiento 2019 del Plan de Acción Nacional de Cambio Climático 2017 - 2022 [2019 monitoring report of the National Climate Change Action Plan 2017 - 2022].
[3] Ministry of Environment of Chile (2014), National Adaptation Plan, https://cambioclimatico.mma.gob.cl/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Plan-Nacional-Adaptacion-Cambio-Climatico-version-final.pdf.
[5] Ministry of Environment of Chile (2008), Plan de acción nacional de cambio climático 2008-2012 (PANCC) [National Climate Change Action Plan 2008-2012], https://mma.gob.cl/cambio-climatico/plan-de-accion-nacional-de-cambio-climatico-2008-2012-pancc/.
[13] Pica-Téllez, A. et al. (2020), Informe Proyecto ARClim: Atlas de Riesgos Climáticos para Chile [ARClim Project Report: Climate Risk Atlas for Chile], Centro de Ciencia del Clima y la Resiliencia, Centro de Cambio Global UC y Meteodata para el Ministerio del Medio Ambiente a través de La Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ).
[11] Ramajo, L. et al. (2022), AdaptaClim: Indicadores Climáticos para la Adaptación en la Región de Coquimbo [AdaptaClim: Climate Indicators for Adaptation in the Coquimbo Region], Proyecto ejecutado por el Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Zonas Áridas (CEAZA) para el Ministerio de Medio Ambiente de Chile (MMA) a través GEF (Global Environment Facility) y PNUMA (Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Medio Ambiente).
[12] UNDP (2023), Report on Mapping the Gender Component in Data and Legislation in the area of Climate Change, Environment and Biodiversity, https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/2023-04/ReportGenderClimate26042023.pdf.
← 1. The Minister Council of Sustainability was established by law in 2010, with the focus on climate change added by the 2022 Climate Change Law.
← 2. Ministers of Transport and Telecommunications; Agriculture; Finance; Health; Economy, Development and Tourism; Energy; Public Works; Housing and Urban Planning; Transport and Telecommunications; Mining; Family and Social Development; Education; and Sciences, Technology, Knowledge, and Innovation.
← 3. This corresponds to the implementation of the cross-cutting measures of the NAP (excluding sectoral plans). It is generated based on the review of the annual NAP reports, considering the information on the degree of implementation of each measure, as declared by institutions responsible for their implementation, and generating a simple average of all the cross-cutting measures in the NAP.
← 4. Further details on the method are explained on pp 47-52 of (Ministry of Environment of Chile, 2021[6]).
← 5. The final report of ARClim describes this gap by establishing: "an integration of the results of different impact chains to evaluate the interactions of different climatic hazards jointly and the added risk for specific systems and/or territories" (Pica-Téllez et al., 2020[13]).
← 6. https://arclim.mma.gob.cl/