This chapter provides a development diagnostic of Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), focusing on the “prosperity”, “people” and “planet” pillars of the United Nations’ (UN’s) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It examines the impressive economic advancements fuelled by investments, commodity exports and tourism, juxtaposed with the challenges of stagnant structural transformation and unequal distribution of opportunities. Emphasising the need for a vibrant private sector in fostering employment and productivity across diverse sectors, this chapter underscores the necessity of stimulating broader-based economic growth. Under the “people” pillar of the SDGs, it highlights the imperative of prioritising human capital development and stresses the need to bolster funding capacity. Addressing environmental concerns, this chapter underscores the urgency of preserving Lao PDR’s natural wealth amid escalating environmental pressures, particularly air pollution and carbon emissions. Finally, it explores the nation’s increasing vulnerability to climate change, highlighting the need to develop integrated approaches to sustainable development.
Multi-dimensional Review of Lao PDR
2. Development diagnostic: Prosperity, people, planet
Abstract
Prosperity: Moving from booming commodities to broad-based opportunities
Impressive economic growth promoted by investments, commodity exports and tourism
Lao PDR’s economy has been one of the fastest growing in the world. With an average annual growth of 7.1% between 2000 and 2019, Lao PDR’s economy has been the second-fastest-growing economy among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member States and the 13th fastest-growing economy globally (World Bank, 2024[1]).
Booming investment was an important driver of Lao PDR’s economic success, spurring large-scale infrastructure projects and a push into the mining and energy sectors. Between 2006 and 2017, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows grew almost tenfold, from USD 187.4 million (United States dollars) to USD 1.69 billion. Investment in Lao PDR’s Special Economic Zones reached a cumulative USD 7.6 billion in 2021 (Dalavong, 2021[2]). The government’s Turning Land into Capital (TLIC) (nayobay han din pen theun) policy facilitated large concession investment projects (World Bank, 2006[3]) in hydropower (64% of investment in Lao PDR between 2017 and 2021), mining (15% of investment) and agriculture (6% of investment). Between 1989 and 2018, the area under land concessions in Lao PDR increased from approximately 200 000 hectares (ha) to more than 1 000 000 ha. Forty-five percent of these concessions are agriculture concessions, 41% are mining concessions, 14% are tree plantation concessions and 1% are concessions for hydropower stations (CDE/University of Bern/MRLG, 2019[4]).
Exports grew rapidly, mirroring the investment push into energy and commodities as well as tourism expansion. Exports in goods grew more than fourfold between 2010 and 2021, reaching USD 7.7 billion in 2021 (up from USD 1.7 billion in 2010) (Figure 2.1, Panel A). Up until the COVID‑19 pandemic, tourism had kept pace with the rapid growth of other exports, and accounted for a significant share of sectors and about 10% of gross domestic product (GDP) (Figure 2.1, Panel B; Box 2.1). Large hydropower projects made electricity the second most important export product (21.3% of trade). Exports of metals and ores like gold, iron and others boomed as well, followed by agriculture- and forestry-based products like cassava, rubber (of which Lao PDR is the seventh-largest global exporter, with exports worth USD 300 million in 2021), paper and pulp. Metals (accounting for 22.3% of exports) are Lao PDR’s most important export goods, followed by paper and wood products (10.3%), vegetable products (9.6%), and minerals (9.1%). Mining products accounted for more than 30% of Lao PDR’s exports and were also the second-largest recipient of FDI in Lao PDR (15% of FDI inflows) in 2021 (Figure 2.2) (Ngangnouvong, 2019[5]; IFC, 2021[6]).
Box 2.1. Tourism in Lao PDR: An important sector with potential for revival after COVID‑19
Prior to the COVID‑19 pandemic in 2020, Lao PDR registered 4.79 million international tourist arrivals, primarily from neighbouring countries. Tourism receipts accounted for 13.9% of Lao PDR’s exports, and the tourism sector accounted for 9.1% of GDP and created 300 000 jobs. The sector took a major hit when foreign tourism was restricted during the COVID‑19 pandemic. As restrictions have been lifted, the sector has started showing signs of recovery, although travel and tourism have not yet reached pre-pandemic levels (Figure 2.3).
Attracting tourists who stay longer and spend more would increase resources. Prior to the COVID‑19 pandemic, tourism receipts per arrival in Lao PDR amounted to USD 203 in 2019, less than one-fifth of the ASEAN average (USD 1 160) (Figure 2.4). Many tourists from neighbouring countries visit Lao PDR for a single day only, whereas tourists coming from farther away often combine a vacation in, for example, Thailand with a short stopover in Lao PDR. There are some options for Lao PDR to attract tourists to stay longer:
facilitating access to Lao PDR’s numerous tourist sites through improved connectivity and transportation infrastructure
improving the tourism products offered in Lao PDR, including ecotourism and nature tourism, historical sites, ethnocultural tourism, adventure tourism, agriculture tourism, and wellness tourism.
Preserving tourism as a potential sector to grow. Going forward, it would be important to more systematically take into account the impact on tourism when deciding on the location of new investment projects such as mines, dams and power plants. In addition, the issue of air pollution from the traditional slash-and-burn agricultural practice, especially during the burning season, would need to be taken into consideration.
Lao PDR’s strategic positioning within Southeast Asia and its integration with regional frameworks have been instrumental in its economic growth. In the mid-1990s, Lao PDR’s regional integration intensified as it became a member of the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) and subsequently joined ASEAN. This participation in regional frameworks in fast-growing markets led to a significant increase in trade. Between 1990 and 1998, Lao PDR’s trade grew from 36% to 84% of its GDP (World Bank, 2024[1]). By 2021, ASEAN member states accounted for a substantial portion of Lao PDR’s trade, with 57% of imports and 53% of exports originating from these countries (World Bank, 2021[9]).
Along with its economic growth, Lao PDR has experienced rapid urbanisation that is expected to continue. Lao PDR has experienced one of the fastest rates of urbanisation growth in the Southeast Asia region and among its peers, reaching 37.6% urbanisation in 2022 (Figure 2.5). The share of urban population in Lao PDR is still low in comparison to its peers, however. Recent estimates indicate that the share of urban population in Lao PDR will reach 47.7% by 2025 (UN Habitat, 2023[10]).
There is also stagnating structural transformation and an unbalanced distribution of opportunities
Stagnating structural transformation and an unbalanced distribution of opportunities are the flip side of the importance of commodities and the concentration of economic power. Past growth and investment in Lao PDR were highly concentrated in a few sectors and dominant state-owned enterprises (SOEs). More than 90% of workers remain in sectors dominated by informal employment, with more than 50% working in the agricultural sector, generating limited income, added value and tax revenue (Figure 2.6) (Box 2.2). Manufacturing – often the cornerstone sector for economic transformation – accounts for only 8.8% of Lao PDR’s GDP (compared with 20.5% on average among ASEAN Member States, 27.0% in Thailand and 24.8% in Viet Nam), and the sector’s contribution to Lao PDR’s GDP has stagnated and even moderately decreased since the early 2000s. The manufacturing sector is dominated by textiles and clothing (which accounted for 15.7% of the manufacturing sector in 2017) and food processing (accounting for 33.4% of manufacturing in 2017) (IFC, 2021[6]; World Bank, 2024[1]).
Box 2.2. Agriculture in Lao PDR: An important driver of economic growth
Lao PDR’s agricultural sector constitutes an important part of the country’s economy and involves a majority of the population. Agriculture is the main source of income and livelihood in rural Lao PDR. The contribution of the agricultural sector to Lao PDR’s GDP has been significant, but has declined over the years, from 51.8% in 2000 to 17.8% in 2022 (Figure 2.7, Panel A). Over the same time period, the agricultural sector’s share of employment has decreased from 80% to 58%, which compares with an ASEAN average of 39% (Figure 2.7) (World Bank, 2024[1]).
Reflecting the importance of subsistence and smallholder farming, agricultural productivity remains low in Lao PDR. While the country’s agricultural outputs have increased as a result of commercial operations, overall agricultural productivity in Lao PDR remains low. Agricultural productivity (measured as value added per worker in agriculture, forestry and fishing) in Lao PDR is only 6.7% of the ASEAN average and increased at an annual rate of only 1.8% between 2009 and 2019 (Figure 2.8) (World Bank, 2024[1]).
Opportunities for productivity and sustainability within the agricultural sector
Lao PDR’s geographic location offers an opportunity for regional connectivity in terms of importing and exporting agricultural products. Investment in the mechanisation and modernisation of agriculture, combined with traditional knowledge and the better organisation of smallholder farmers, could help to increase the sector’s productivity. Additional opportunities include the following:
Transitioning to more environmentally sustainable practices, such as organic farming, could increase farmers’ income while improving the environment (OECD, 2024[14]).
The expansion of longer-cycle crops (such as coffee, tea and sugar cane) and non-timber forest products (such as certain mushrooms) could reduce the damage to the environment caused by short-cycle crops like cassava and bananas.
Harnessing the synergies between the agricultural and tourism sectors could lead to increased collaboration and increase value added. Tourism has many linkages with the agricultural sector, providing the potential to absorb seasonal excess labour in rural areas and encourage the production of higher-value-added agricultural goods and related products. For instance, tourism enterprises can purchase significant quantities of organic agricultural products (ADB, 2021[15]).
Similar to the uneven sector distribution as a share of GDP, the share of informal employment in Lao PDR stands out in comparison to other countries and illustrates the concentration of opportunity among a small share of the population. In the Labour Force Survey 2022, informal economy workers1 accounted for 90.5% of the workforce (Figure 2.9). The share of informal economy workers was significantly higher in rural areas (at 91.2%) than in urban areas (at 69.4%) (ILO, 2023[11]). There were only modest gender differences, with 91.6% of women and 89.5% of men in informal employment (ILO, 2023[11]). Informal workers are more likely than employees and employers to experience low job and income security and are less covered by social protection and employment regulation. The formal sector, which comprises only 9.5% of employment, is dominated by public administration and community, social and other services (48.4% of formal employment) (Figure 2.9).
The unequal distribution of opportunities is reflected in increasing inequality. Lao PDR’s remarkable economic growth has mainly been attributed to capital-intensive sectors, such as mining and energy, which have created limited employment opportunities. This has left household incomes growing significantly slower than the rest of the economy, especially at the lower end of the income distribution. Instead, growth has been more favourable at the top end of the income distribution, and inequality continues to rise. The Gini index for Lao PDR increased from 35.4 in 2007 to 38.8 in 2018 (Figure 2.10, Panel A). While Lao PDR follows the upward-sloping Gini-to-GDP per capita trajectory of its neighbours, much lower levels of inequality are possible (Figure 2.10, Panel B).
A thriving private sector that promotes employment and productivity across multiple sectors would be key to achieving more broad-based economic growth
A level playing field and supportive conditions could help enterprises grow and become formal. The Lao PDR economy’s current profile of high informality and limited productivity in most sectors (Figure 2.6) reflects a lack of opportunity for private enterprises to grow and create innovation and opportunity for Laotians. Informal enterprises exhibit significantly lower productivity compared with their formal counterparts, with only 13% of the sales per worker of a formal firm (World Bank, 2019[16]). Yet, many enterprises remain informal, often as a result of the multiple obstacles to formalisation. A level playing field that offers the same conditions and rules of engagement to all economic actors, no matter their background and size, is key to allowing for more formalisation.
Reflecting Lao PDR’s level of development and its concentrated economic structure, the vast majority of firms are micro-businesses. These account for 94.2% of all enterprises in the country (126 168 micro-businesses). In addition, small enterprises (5‑19 employees) account for 4.9% of all enterprises (6 600 small enterprises), medium-sized enterprises (20‑99 employees) account for 0.7% (954 medium enterprises), and large enterprises (more than 100 employees) account for 0.2% (276 large enterprises), according to the latest Economic Census survey III (2019‑20) (Lao Statistics Bureau, 2020[17]).
Access to finance is a key obstacle for small and medium-sized enterprises in the formal sector (Figure 2.11). Only 49.3% of small enterprises have a checking or savings account, and only 20.1% have a bank loan/line of credit (World Bank, 2019[16]). Consequently, internal company financing (89%) largely dominates sources of finance, followed by bank financing (6%) and equity (3%). A more open and competitive financial sector would be a key requirement in order to advance private sector development. Currently, most banks in Lao PDR are state-owned or are joint ventures with public shareholders. Chapter 3 provides recommendations for financing sustainable development.
As firms grow larger in size, the availability of human capital becomes a binding constraint (Figure 2.11). Private investors in Lao PDR experience shortages in technical and vocational workers (such as mechanics; maintenance workers for heavy machinery; technicians and technical workers for dam maintenance; construction workers; and nurses), as well as a lack of engineers. Soft skills such as reliability, timeliness, work ethic and a willingness to work can be difficult to find for investors as well.
For the agricultural sector, export-based manufacturers and the tourism sector, high transportation costs remain a challenge. Significant progress on the construction of important highway and train routes has been made in recent years. Nevertheless, the road network in Lao PDR remains limited, and many areas of the country are difficult to access (Figure 2.12). Transportation costs along important trade corridors are between 1.4 and 2.2 times higher in Lao PDR than in Thailand (IDE-JETRO, 2017[18]).
Furthermore, the prevalence of bribery in Lao PDR adds another layer of complexity to the business environment. Forty percent of enterprises in the private formal non-agricultural sector have reported encountering at least one instance of a bribe payment request across various transactions, encompassing tasks such as paying taxes, acquiring permits or licences, and securing utility connections. This figure exceeds the corresponding percentages in both the East Asia and the Pacific region (31%) and the average of lower middle-income countries (21%). Notably, bribery rates are the highest for engagements with tax officials (Figure 2.13). Chapter 5 provides a more detailed analysis of the constraints to private sector development and sustainable investment in Lao PDR, and provides recommendations to increase this investment.
People: Making human capital development a priority
In order to ensure that no one is left behind in Lao PDR’s continued development, inequality and poverty need to be addressed
Lao PDR has been able to translate its economic growth into important development gains in household income, poverty reduction, education and healthcare. Extreme poverty fell from 25.4% to 7.1% between 2002 and 2018, and poverty at the national poverty threshold fell from 46.0% to 18.3% between 1992‑93 and 2018‑19 (Lao Statistics Bureau, 2022[20]). Multi-dimensional poverty (which has been officially recognised by the government of Lao PDR and takes into account deprivation in healthcare, education, water and sanitation, housing, and access to information) has also declined, especially in rural areas, mirroring the decline in monetary poverty (Lao Statistics Bureau, 2020[21]; OPHI, 2023[22]). Lao PDR has made steady progress in expanding access to education and achieving nearly universal primary education, making primary school compulsory and free up to and including the fifth grade. Progress in health outcomes has been equally significant. Maternal mortality dropped from 284 deaths per 100 000 births in 2010 to 126 deaths per 100 000 births in 2020, and the mortality rate for children aged under 5 years improved from 61 deaths per 1 000 births in 2010 to 44 deaths per 1 000 births in 2020 (World Bank, 2024[1]).
Nevertheless, poverty remains a challenge, especially in rural areas. Despite progress in reducing poverty, poverty levels remain high, especially for the higher poverty measures (i.e. the share of the population living on less than USD 3.65 and USD 6.85 per day) (Figure 2.14, Panel A). In 2018, 32.5% of the population lived on incomes of less than USD 3.65 per day and 70.5% lived on incomes lower than USD 6.85 per day (World Bank, 2023[23]). Despite rapid poverty reduction in rural areas, a majority of those living in poverty live in rural areas, and significant gaps between the poverty rates in urban and rural areas remain. The rural poverty rate dropped by 7.6 percentage points between 2013 and 2019 (to 23.8%), while urban poverty has stagnated (Figure 2.14, Panel B). Some segments of society are experiencing new poverty prompted by landlessness and dispossession as a result of investment projects, concessions and other factors (Ingalls, 2018[24]). Provinces in both the north and south of Lao PDR have experienced a rapid reduction in poverty, but discrepancies persist across regions. Poverty reduction has stagnated in central Lao PDR, which has historically been the country’s wealthiest region (Lao Statistics Bureau, 2020[21]).
Vulnerable groups are at risk of being left behind. Despite the poverty reduction that has occurred in recent years, poverty remains high among minority ethnic groups. Out of the three largest ethnic minority groups in Lao PDR – the Mon-Khmer (which comprise 22% of the population), the Hmong-lu Mien (9% of the population) and the Chine-Tibet (3% of the population) – the Hmong-lu Mien has the highest poverty rate. This group constitutes 19% of those living in poverty despite making up only 9% of the population (Lao Statistics Bureau, 2020[21]; Lao Statistics Bureau, 2016[25]). The widening disparities among ethnic groups have multiple causes, including differences in household human and physical assets and economic opportunities, as well as high fertility rates and low school progression (Pimhidzai and Houng Vu, 2017[26]).
Human capital development presents a pressing development need for which funding capacity must be strengthened
A more balanced growth path would increasingly rely on human capital. The current trajectory of capital-intensive investments in natural resource extraction and energy generation only required relatively limited amounts of skilled labour. Accordingly, the employment effect of these sectors has been small. Other sectors, however, like manufacturing, agri-business, tourism and most services, will need larger numbers of qualified labourers. Beyond education and skills, human capital also requires adequate healthcare and a minimum level of social services.
Despite significant past success, the current outlook on education and skills is challenging. Lao PDR has made steady progress in expanding access to education and achieving nearly universal primary education in the last decade, making primary school compulsory and free up to and including the fifth grade. Despite this significant progress in expanding access to primary and secondary education, enrolment levels have started to decline and the dropout rate remains high, particularly for the rural population (Figure 2.15). Only 79% of the rural population in Lao PDR has completed primary education. The completion rate for the poorest quintile of the population also remains low, at 58% (Figure 2.15) (UNICEF, 2022[27]).
The quality of education is also of concern. Student performance on standardised tests in Lao PDR is among the lowest in the Southeast Asia region (Figure 2.15, Panel B). Students’ learning outcomes are low, leaving children without essential knowledge and skills. Teachers’ limited capacity, a weak pedagogical support system, challenges in multi-grade teaching, and the lack of teaching/learning materials are some of the key constraints resulting in the low quality of education in Lao PDR. As a result, job prospects for graduates are limited. These limited job prospects do not incentivise student enrolment at school. This is reflected in low enrolment rates above the primary level: enrolment in secondary and tertiary education and in technical and vocational education and training (TVET) in Lao PDR are lower than in comparators in the Southeast Asia region (World Bank, 2024[1]).
There has been remarkable progress in health outcomes, but maternal and child health remains a pressing issue. Further improving the quality of and access to healthcare remain priorities for sustainable development and for a human capital strategy. Maternal mortality in particular remains high in Lao PDR compared with the international average, notwithstanding significant progress the country has made (Figure 2.17, Panel A). Nutrition and food security remains a persistent problem, especially among low-income families in rural areas (Lao Statistics Bureau, 2020[30]). The prevalence of stunting due to chronic malnutrition among children aged under five years is high, at 27.7% in 2022 (UNICEF/WHO/World Bank, 2023[31]) (Figure 2.17, Panel B). Income and geographic inequalities in health service utilisation are further challenges reflecting the unequal access to health services (UNFPA, 2021[32]). While the government of Lao PDR has introduced a national free maternal and child health service policy, other barriers exist in terms of access to health services, especially for the poorer quintiles of the population. In addition to barriers to the physical accessibility of health services, ethnolinguistic barriers, cultural barriers and poor education are reported (World Bank, 2020[33]).
There has been significant health insurance expansion, but patients in Lao PDR spend more on healthcare in comparison with other countries. Lao PDR has a National Health Insurance (NHI) scheme that is funded by tax revenues and that provides social health protection to the population with a small co-payment at the point of care. Since its introduction in 2016, the NHI has drastically increased the number of people with health insurance coverage from 45% in 2016 to 94% in 2021, and has increased the use of public health services by 10‑30% (WHO, 2022[34]). However, challenges remain in ensuring complete or proper availability of NHI benefits. Some people are required to pay additional or excessive fees, while a range of other operational challenges affect the delivery and sustainability of the scheme. As a result, Lao PDR is one of the countries where out-of-pocket (OOP) healthcare expenditure has risen between 2010 and 2020 (Figure 2.18). High OOP healthcare expenditure has larger impacts on more vulnerable populations, as data from the most recent Lao Expenditure and Consumption Survey, 2018‑2019 show that the poorest quintile of the population is less likely to seek healthcare due to financial barriers than the richest quintile of the population: 14.4% of the poorest quintile reported not seeking healthcare for financial reasons compared with 6.8% of the richest quintile (WHO, 2023[35]). Regional disparities have also been noted: people living in Vientiane (the capital of Lao PDR) reported paying more than double the amount in OOP payments compared with those living in other regions, and they experienced higher overall healthcare expenditure compared with those living in other regions (WHO, 2023[35]).
There is a lack of funding in the social sectors. Lao PDR’s limited fiscal space has constrained the government’s ability to expand spending on education, healthcare and social protection. Although health spending per capita has almost quadrupled since the year 2000, the country’s total spending on education, healthcare and social assistance as a share of GDP is low compared with its regional and income peers and is below international benchmarks (Figure 2.19) (World Bank, 2024[1]). Article 60 of the Education Law (2015) states that 18% of the national budget should go to education, but the latest figures reveal that actual budgetary allocation to education has remained low and in fact decreased from 15.8% in 2015‑16 to 13.1% in 2020‑21 (Government of Lao PDR, 2015[36]; UNICEF, 2021[37]). The financing gap has led to the cancellation of key teacher in-service training programmes, limited essential funding to district bureaus and schools, and stalled national investment in the Water, Sanitation and Hygiene Education (WASH) in Schools programme (UNICEF, 2021[37]).
In addition, the social protection system has a low level of coverage. The total coverage of social protection is low (covering 2.1% of the population), as is spending, with 0.09% of GDP being spent on social assistance (Figure 2.20). This includes most public sector workers, slightly less than one-half of all workers in formal enterprises, and 24 000 self-employed workers (ILO, 2023[38]). Most of these workers are more likely than employees and employers to experience low job and income security, as well as less covered by social protection and employment regulation.
There are high rates of migration to neighbouring countries, but low levels of remittances
The migration rate from Lao PDR to neighbouring countries is high. Many skilled and unskilled workers in Lao PDR who are willing to work in a factory environment emigrate to neighbouring countries (primarily Thailand (Figure 2.21, Panel B)), where demand for low-skilled labour in sectors such as infrastructure, services, manufacturing and agriculture is high and minimum wages largely exceed those in Lao PDR. Although data for international migration are limited, estimates vary to a great extent, from 850 000 to 2.5 million (UNFPA, 2021[32]), and the net migration rate in relation to the population remains high in comparison with peer countries (Figure 2.21, Panel A). Laotian women are more likely to migrate abroad than men, with nearly 56% of Laotian migrants being women according to UN data (UNDESA, 2020[40]). Young women are more likely to leave rural provinces, moving out of agricultural communities into cities or to Thailand in search of employment (Ingalls, 2018[24]).
Figures on personal remittances may underestimate their true effect on household livelihoods. The share of remittances in relation to GDP in Lao PDR (1.26% of GDP in 2022) appears relatively modest when compared with those of other countries (Figure 2.22). This suggests that a significant portion of house’holds do not heavily rely on remittances as their primary source of income. Around 9% of households in Lao PDR receive remittances from abroad, and these remittances constitute 60% of their overall household income (IOM, 2022[41]). However, informal remittances may play a considerable role in household income, potentially accounting for up to 50% of total remittance transfers in the GMS. Consequently, national and official figures may underestimate the true impact of remittances on the macroeconomic level and on household livelihoods in Lao PDR (Asian Development Bank, 2013[42]).
Planet: Preserving Lao PDR’s abundant natural wealth and fighting air pollution
Lao PDR benefits from abundant natural endowments, but these have come under pressure
Lao PDR has an abundance of natural resources, namely water, mineral deposits and forests that cover the entire length of the country and serve important functions within the ecosystem. Lao PDR has one of the highest levels of forest cover in Southeast Asia. Its evergreen forests, karst landscape and mountainous forests have made Lao PDR one of the ten most important biodiversity ecoregions globally, with ongoing discoveries of new species (World Bank, 2020[43]). Forest resources are also crucial for economic development and individuals’ livelihoods in Lao PDR. Forestry rents contributed 1.5% to the country’s GDP in 2021 (World Bank, 2024[1]). Forests store carbon, help protect communities and infrastructure from the impacts of drought and flash floods, and contribute to the supply of clean water and food. In addition, forests provide invaluable non-timber forest products, such as food, materials used in construction and trade, and medicine, and are also a source of subsistence income in rural areas. Lao PDR’s terrain is also rich in mineral resources. With more than 570 mineral deposits identified in the country, including deposits of gold, copper, zinc and lead, Lao PDR was ranked as one of the most resource-rich countries in Asia in 2008 (Houngaloune, 2019[44]). In addition, Lao PDR’s water resources from surface and groundwater flows provide the country with irrigation, fisheries, plantations, livestock and hydropower potential.
However, the current economic growth model has put the environment in Lao PDR under pressure. Lao PDR’s rich natural resources – including minerals, hydropower and its diverse ecosystem – have contributed to the country’s wealth and development in important sectors such as agriculture and tourism, providing jobs for more than 78% of its population (IFAD, 2018[46]). However, the current economic growth model has placed the environment under increasing pressure. While Lao PDR’s wealth of human capital has increased over time, its wealth of natural capital has started to decline, mainly due to a decrease in the amount of non-renewable capital such as metals and minerals (Figure 2.23). Research suggests that in recent decades, forest loss and degradation have cost the country nearly 3% of its GDP per year, and that the health effects caused by pollution have an estimated annual cost equivalent to 15% of Lao PDR’s GDP (World Bank, 2021[47]).
Lao PDR is home to important biodiversity, which needs protection. Of the 1 298 globally threatened species in the Indo-Burma Biodiversity Hotspot (consisting of Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Thailand and Viet Nam, as well as some southern parts of the People’s Republic of China [hereafter “China”]), 281 (22%) are found in Lao PDR (Critical Ecosystem Partnership Fund, 2020[48]). Forests, grasslands and other terrestrial habitats are being degraded, fragmented and lost as a result of the expansion of industrial agriculture and commercial timber extraction (World Bank, 2020[43]).These habitats are home to many rare and endangered species. In addition, the recent surge in investment (both domestic and foreign) in mining and hydropower activities is resulting in negative effects on biodiversity, as these activities are often being undertaken in protected areas. Biodiversity is further threatened by land conversion, urban development, climate change and pollution. In addition, commercial tree plantations can also be a threat to biodiversity as they risk reduce the diversity of plants and habitants of numerous species.
Deforestation, which is influenced by both legal and illegal economic activity, is a major challenge. Lao PDR has one of the highest levels of forest cover in Southeast Asia. An estimated 80% of the population are heavily reliant on forests for their well-being (UNEP GRID, 2023[49]). However, a combination of illegal logging, infrastructure development (such as hydropower, mining and roads) and the conversion of forests to agricultural land has caused forest loss. From 2001 to 2022, Lao PDR lost 4 370 000 ha of tree cover, which is equivalent to a 23% decrease (Global Forest Watch, 2023[50]) (Figure 2.24). Commercial agricultural expansion (commodity-driven deforestation) is the dominant driver of deforestation in Lao PDR (Figure 2.24, Panel A). Shifting agriculture (also called slash-and-burn agriculture) is another major driver of forest degradation in Lao PDR. This is a farming practice where farmers clear and burn forests in order to create ash-fertilised soil. Crops are then planted and harvested for one or two years in succession, after which the plot is abandoned and the practice is repeated in an adjacent patch of forest (Chen et al., 2023[51]).
Air pollution is a significant challenge
Air pollution presents a serious threat to well-being. Lao PDR was ranked 149th out of 180 countries in the 2022 Yale Environmental Performance Index, and was among the worst-performing countries for air pollution (Wolf et al., 2022[54]). Particulate matter, and especially particulate matter with a diameter of 2.5 microns or smaller (PM2.5), is the outdoor ambient air pollutant that is associated with the largest quantity of negative health effects globally. Chronic exposure to PM2.5 considerably increases health risks, and the risk of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases in particular (OECD, 2024[55]). Although seasonal variations persist, monitored annual average PM2.5 concentrations for Lao PDR for 2018 and 2022 significantly exceeded national and international air quality standards (Figure 2.25). A recent World Bank study estimated that environmental pollution contributed to 10 000 deaths in Lao PDR in 2017 (22% of all deaths in Lao PDR), and 27% of these deaths were from ambient air pollution. The cost of health effects from ambient air pollution in 2017 amounted to 3.5% of Lao PDR’s GDP (World Bank, 2021[47]). Consequently, the burden of disease from ambient air pollution remains high (see Chapter 1 for further details).
Burning wood and fuel oil plays a significant role in emitting atmospheric pollution. Lao PDR is affected by transboundary emissions from its neighbouring high-pollution countries of Cambodia, China, Myanmar, Thailand and Viet Nam, especially during the dry season (Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, 2020[57]). The use of fire in order to clear land for agricultural purposes (so-called slash-and-burn practices) also plays a significant role in emitting atmospheric pollution. In addition, inadequate solid waste management practices, such as open dumping and the burning of waste, also contribute to air pollution (FAO, 2023[58]). Although Lao PDR’s per capita waste generation rate is among the lowest in the Southeast Asia region, waste generation has doubled in Vientiane over the last decade and is expected to increase by another 46% by 2050 (World Bank, 2021[47]). The ban on burning garbage in Vientiane in December 2019 and the establishment of a hotline to report offences might reduce environmental damage if fully respected (The Laotian Times, 2019[59]).
The use of solid fuels for cooking causes serious household air pollution. In 2021, only 9.3% of the total population in Lao PDR, and 2.4% of the rural population, used clean energies (for example, gaseous fuels, electricity, as well as an aggregation of any other clean fuels like alcohol) as their primary cooking energies. This compares with 60% in other lower middle-income countries, and 71% across ASEAN Member States (Figure 2.26, Panel A). While the use of clean energies increased by nearly 30 percentage points between 2000 and 2021 in the selected countries in Southeast Asia, the increase in Lao PDR over this time period was less than 8 percentage points. The selected countries’ energy use in relation to income level indicates that 35‑45% of the population in Lao PDR would be expected to use clean energies as their primary cooking energies in 2021 based on the country’s per capita income level, rather than the actual level of 9.3% (Figure 2.26, Panel B).
Climate change: Lao PDR’s contribution and vulnerability to climate change is increasing
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Lao PDR are high in relation to the country’s economic output. In relation to economic output, Lao PDR’s 2019 CO2 emissions (0.339 kilogrammes (kg) per 2017 purchasing power parity USD) were among the highest in the Southeast Asia region and were above the average for lower middle-income countries (0.236 kg per 2017 adjusted by Purchasing Power Parity USD) (Figure 2.27, Panel A). Notably, during the period from 2010 to 2019, Lao PDR demonstrated the most significant increase in carbon intensity compared with similar economies (Figure 2.27, Panel A). This surge can be primarily attributed to the commissioning of the 1 878 megawatt lignite-fired thermal plant in Hongsa in 2015, which produces electricity that is predominantly (95%) exported to Thailand. Furthermore, there are additional coal-fired plants in the pipeline – specifically in Xekong, Lamam, Houaphan and Boualapha – which could further elevate Lao PDR’s carbon intensity (Asian Development Bank, 2019[60]). Similarly, per capita CO2 emissions in Lao PDR (2.658 metric tonnes per capita) experienced the most substantial growth between 2010 and 2019 among a selection of comparable countries. Although Lao PDR’s CO2 emissions were aligned with those comparable countries in Southeast Asia in 2019, they remained 59% higher than the average for the lower middle-income country group (Figure 2.27, Panel B).
Lao PDR showcases ambitious climate mitigation objectives, as demonstrated by its nationally determined contributions (NDCs), with investment needs estimated at USD 4.8 billion (representing around USD 500 million annually until 2030). In practice, this is far more than the total amount of climate-related development finance currently being accessed by the country, including for both mitigation and adaptation measures (Government of Lao PDR, 2021[61]).
The importance of agriculture and hydropower for the economy make Lao PDR vulnerable to climate change. Lao PDR is vulnerable to natural disasters and extreme weather events, which have been increasing in frequency and intensity (Figure 2.28, Panel A). This vulnerability is further exaggerated by its lack of coping capacity (INFORM, 2022[62]). Almost all of Lao PDR’s farming systems are vulnerable to flooding, drought and the late onset of the rainy season, with a high vulnerability to food security (Figure 2.28, Panel B). With the population’s high level of dependency on traditional agricultural systems and a predominance of smallholder farms, the impacts of natural disasters can be devastating. Floods and droughts continue to be the most significant threats: some provinces experienced flooding every year between 2013 and 2019. Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events, resulting in more frequent and more severe flooding in vulnerable and rapidly growing cities along the Mekong River (UNEP GRID Geneva, 2024[63]).
Development priorities
To summarise, this diagnostic chapter identified four strategic pillars that can help Lao PDR build a more sustainable development path:
1. Prosperity: creating the conditions for opportunities to emerge in all sectors and for all citizens
2. People: making human capital development a priority
3. Planet: preserving Lao PDR’s abundant natural wealth, fighting air pollution and mobilising green finance
The 9th NSEDP and other strategies reflect many of these priorities, especially the focus on human capital development.
The remainder of this report focuses on financing as the most binding constraint. Charting a new development path that builds on these three pillars, will require significant amounts of smart investment and reallocation of spending. However, Lao PDR faces a challenging financing landscape and has limited capacity for taxation and revenue generation. Working with all its partners towards a more sustainable structure of its public debt obligations, strengthening revenue generation, and fiscal and debt management, and focusing on investment that is sustainable, are clear priorities at the time of this report.
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Note
← 1. This consists of two types of employment: those employed in the informal sector and those informally employed in the formal sector or in households.