Balanced Trade Statistics

To enable a better understanding of global trade patterns, the OECD developed transparent methodologies to reconcile asymmetries in international trade data. Two balanced trade datasets are available: the OECD Balanced International Merchandise Trade dataset (BIMTS) and the OECD-WTO Balanced Trade in Services dataset (BaTIS).

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Despite multiple efforts to tackle them at national and international level, asymmetries in international trade data are still significant: the exports of country A to country B rarely match the imports of B from A, both for merchandise and for services trade. To enable a better understanding of global trade patterns, the OECD developed transparent methodologies to reconcile these asymmetries. Two balanced trade datasets are available: the OECD Balanced International Merchandise Trade dataset (BIMTS) and the OECD-WTO Balanced Trade in Services dataset (BaTIS).

Further work to reduce asymmetries in official statistics, including through bilateral and multilateral meetings, is under way in collaboration with national statistical offices and other international organisations. These efforts are crucial to improve the comparability and reliability of trade statistics at the source. As the results of these efforts become available, they will be integrated into future updates of BIMTS and BATIS.

OECD Balanced International Merchandise Trade dataset (BIMTS)

Asymmetries in merchandise trade data can be large, and they can be attributable to several factors. First, exports and imports are valued differently: exports are valued ‘free on board’ (FOB), while imports include the ‘costs of insurance and freight’ (CIF). However, this makes only marginal contributions to asymmetries, as the CIF/FOB margins account, on average, for around 5% of merchandise trade flows. Differences in customs regimes, confidentiality policies, time of recording, or product classifications also play a role. Another important source of discrepancy is the convention that merchandise trade statistics record imports by country of origin, while exports are recorded by country of last known destination. As global production chains become increasingly complex, and goods cross borders several times before reaching the final consumers, this convention means that the recorded exports and imports will not be symmetrical.

The OECD has developed a process to reconcile the observed asymmetries in merchandise trade. First, detailed bilateral statistics are collected (and cleaned) and imports are converted to FOB prices to match the valuation of exports. Secondly, data are adjusted for several specific problems known to drive asymmetries, most notably unallocated and confidential trade, product misclassifications, and re-exports. In the third step, the reconciled figures are calculated as a weighted average between the two flows, where ‘symmetry indices’ – a measure of quality of reported data – constitute the weights in the balancing. Finally, the data are converted to the 2017 version of the Harmonised System (HS 2017) to provide users with consistent time series across the entire time span. In addition, the figures are also presented according to the Classification of Products by Activity (CPA) products to better align with National Accounts statistics, and notably Supply-Use tables.

OECD Balanced International Merchandise Trade dataset (BIMTS)

The OECD BIMTS dataset is being revamped. It will be back soon in the OECD Data Explorer.

OECD-WTO Balanced Trade in Services dataset (BaTIS)

Services trade flows are inherently more complex to record than merchandise trade. The physical nature of goods means they are relatively easy to measure when they cross borders, while the delivery of services is more difficult to observe – even more so when they are delivered in digital form. Hence, only about 65 economies publish (some) bilateral trade in services statistics. The scarcity of detailed information on trade flows by partner (and service category) therefore adds to the asymmetry problem, severely hampering the analytical and policy use of trade in services data. To mitigate these problems, OECD and WTO have developed a global dataset of coherent bilateral trade in services statistics by main service categories.

The latest edition of the OECD-WTO Balanced Trade in Services dataset (BaTIS) covers over 200 reporters and partners and the 12 main EBOPS 2010 service categories for the period 2005-2021.

To develop the dataset, the OECD and WTO have leveraged all official statistics available at national level and supplemented them with estimations and adjustments to provide users with a complete matrix of exports and imports of services. Subsequently, the asymmetries between reported and mirror flows are reconciled by calculating a symmetry-index weighted average between the two, following a similar approach to the one developed for merchandise trade statistics. The final BaTIS dataset comprises three sets of values: the figures officially reported by the country (where available), adjusted and/or imputed values, and balanced values that represent reconciled bilateral trade flows.

Bilateral trade in services statistics often exhibit significant asymmetries

Balanced trade values can be considered the most accurate quantification of bilateral flows. They help policymakers in identifying market opportunities and crafting informed policies, while also assisting data compilers in identifying data gaps and improving the quality of official statistics. Balanced values are often relatively close to the reported values, but in some cases, the differences can be stark, suggesting possible over-reporting (if the ratio is below 1), or under-reporting (if the ratio is above 1).

Access the BaTIS dataset in OECD Data Explorer

OECD-WTO Balanced Trade in Services dataset (BaTIS)

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Related policy issues

Measuring international trade

In an interconnected world, international trade plays a crucial role in economic development. However, keeping track of the flows of goods and services across countries is no easy task, due to the complexity of international supply chains and the growing role of digitally delivered trade. The OECD collects, harmonises, and disseminates various statistics related to international trade and globalisation. Building on officially reported data, the OECD also addresses issues like data gaps, asymmetries, and other data complexities to provide analysts and policymakers with better evidence and more reliable insights. Through strong collaboration with its Members, the OECD leads in advancing measurement techniques and contributes to setting global standards for measuring international trade.

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