Peru’s Central Reserve Bank (CRB) forecasts an annual growth of 4.0% in 2019, following similar growth in 2018 and thanks to a better performance of internal private consumption. It is also expected that the terms of trade will experience a slight improvement from -2.9% to -0.7%, due to a reduction on import prices. In addition, the Central Reserve Bank expects to maintain its interest rate to stimulate the economy (2.75%), given that the inflation rate is stable at around 2.0% and that the output gap is negative.
Outstanding business loans grew by 4.9% in 20181. Based on preliminary data, SME outstanding business loans amounted to 20.8% of all outstanding business loans in 2018, which is slightly lower than the share observed in 2017 (21.5%).
It is also important to point out that 2.83% of all outstanding business loans were non-performing loans, a slight increase from 2017 (2.75%). Non-performing loans in the SME sector experienced a insignificant deterioration from 9.05% in 2017 to 10.13% in 20182. On the other hand, the interest rate spread between SME loans and large firm loans fell slightly from 14.6 to 13.7 percentage points by the end of year 2018, according to the Central Reserve Bank.
In 2018, 99.6% of Peruvian enterprises were SMEs (including micro-enterprises, which employ less than ten persons), and they employed 89.1% of the private sector’s workforce. Compared to 2017, the SME sector grew by 16.0% in 2018 (in terms of the number of SMEs), a significant recovery compared to recent years, according to the National Tax Administration Bureau. Among these formal enterprises, only 5.5% acceded to the formal financial system in 2018, decreasing from 5.9% in 2017. The reason behind this decrease is that the amount of formal enterprises created on 2018 was much higher than in previous years. Importantly, direct government loans from public banks decreased by 12.3%.
As many as 90.8% of the outstanding loans to SME were provided by private banks, with other types of financial institutions granting the remaining 9.2%. It is important to note that it is not necessary for an enterprise to be formal to obtain a formal credit, because entrepreneurs can access credit as individuals.