Thirteen of the fifty countries most affected by climate change worldwide are in LAC where socio-economic vulnerability is compounded by a strong interdependence with the environment.
Between 2001 and 2022 the number of extreme climate‑related weather events in the region increased by 62%, and exposure of people, ecosystems and infrastructure to climate-related hazards is growing.
People are increasingly exposed to heat stress. The surface temperature in 2021 was 0.6°C higher than the 1981-2010 average, and 9% of the population in LAC was exposed to more than two weeks of hot summer days, a 3% increase compared to 1979. The most affected country is Paraguay with nearly 90% of its population exposed, compared to only 28% in 1979.
Cropland is increasingly exposed to heavy rain. In 2020, on average 6.9% of cropland was exposed to more than one week of extreme precipitation, an increase from 5.2% in 2000. In some countries such as Suriname, Guyana, and Trinidad and Tobago, this share reached 64%, 59%, and 29% respectively. These extreme precipitations trigger crop destruction, landslides, or other extreme events.
The intensity of droughts is rising. Soil moisture on croplands decreased on average by 2.5% between 1981-2010 and 2017-2021. Anomalies in soil moisture on croplands affect primarily South America, although they are present in almost all LAC countries.
Almost a third of LAC forest areas are exposed to wildfires. In some countries such as Jamaica, Paraguay, Mexico and El Salvador over 70% of the forest area is exposed. The proportions are smaller in Brazil and Venezuela (46% and 40% respectively), but the areas exposed are large due to the size of these countries.
Tropical cyclones are a major hazard in the Caribbean. Belize and Mexico are also at risk, with more than 50% of their population and built-up area exposed to extreme tropical cyclones.
The region’s rich biodiversity is under high pressure from human activities and climate change, and biodiversity loss is a major concern. The region has made progress in taking measures to protect its biodiversity and landscapes. The 2020 Aichi targets to protect at least 17% of terrestrial and inland water, and 10% of coastal and marine areas, were achieved for the region as a whole, however, often under the least stringent protection levels. Further efforts are needed to reach the Global Biodiversity Framework target of the CBD to conserve and manage 30% of the national territory including terrestrial, inland water, and coastal and marine areas by 2030.
Environment at a Glance in Latin America and the Caribbean
Climate change adaptation - Impacts and risks
Key messages
Context
Climate change has significant impacts on the environment, the economy and human welfare. It threatens ecosystems and biodiversity, affects water resources, human settlements and the frequency and scale of extreme weather events, with subsequent effects on food security, human well-being, socio-economic activities and output.
Some climate-related impacts will gradually affect economic processes, such as those associated with rising temperatures and sea levels, while others may be more acute and periodic such as the increased intensity and frequency of extreme weather events and other climate-related hazards. All have the potential to exacerbate socio-economic inequalities. Climate-related hazards put populations and economic assets at risk through more frequent and severe hot temperature extremes, marine heatwaves, heavy precipitation, droughts, intense tropical cyclones and reductions in Arctic Sea ice, snow cover and permafrost. Additional threats include wildfires, coastal floods, and sea-level rises (IPCC, 2021[36]).
Climate change is closely interconnected with biodiversity (IPBES and IPCC, 2021[37]). Environmental changes driven by climate change are disturbing natural habitats and species in many ways, adding to the threats to biodiversity from human activities. This in turn intensifies the effects of climate change, which cause biodiversity loss. The loss of biological diversity reduces ecosystem resilience and increases vulnerability to climate-related threats. For example, wildlife corridors across the Amazon, the Andes and the Patagonia play an essential role in the sequestration of carbon, and yet are being threatened by the warming that they serve to avoid (Samaniego et al., 2021[38]).
Policy challenges
The main challenge is to adapt and manage current and future risks from climate change, protect vulnerable populations, strategic infrastructure, and enable the restoration of environmental and other assets that have been lost or degraded. This implies:
Integrating adaptation concerns into economic and sectoral policies, and effectively integrating climate and biodiversity policies.
Encouraging investments in technologies, products and natural assets that help reduce the impact of climate change and build resilient infrastructures.
Reforming and removing environmentally harmful subsidies and strengthening the role of biodiversity-relevant taxes, fees and charges, as well as other economic instruments such as payments for ecosystem services, biodiversity offsets and tradable permits (such as transferable quotas for fisheries).
Implementing nature-based solutions (NbS) that can achieve synergies across NDCs and the National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans of the Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF), and that aim at adapting to or reducing climate change risks while ensuring human well-being and biodiversity benefits.
Helping coastal communities adapt to the risks stemming from rising sea levels, extreme weather events and flooding.
Measuring progress and performance
Progress and performance can be assessed against domestic objectives and international goals and commitments on climate change and biodiversity.
Climate change adaptation is part of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (New York, September 2015) under Goal 13 “Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts” with targets related to the resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries and to education, awareness-raising and human and institutional capacity on climate change adaptation, impact reduction and early warning.
The UNFCCC requested specific commitments associated with adaptation plans. At COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh (6-18 November 2022) Parties decided to establish a Loss and Damage fund for countries vulnerable to droughts, floods, rising sea level and other disasters attributed to climate change, which is particularly relevant for the Caribbean islands. At the time of writing, no decision has been reached on the sources or recipients of such funding.
The main international agreement on biodiversity protection is the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) that entered into force on 29 December 1993. It has three main objectives: (1) The conservation of biological diversity; (2) The sustainable use of the components of biological diversity; (3) The fair and equitable sharing of the benefits arising out of the utilization of genetic resources. At their 15th Conference in Montreal (December 2022), Parties adopted the Kunming-Montreal GBF. Among the Framework’s key elements are 4 goals for 2050 and 23 targets for 2030. Targets for 2030 include the effective conservation and management of at least 30% of terrestrial and inland water areas, and of marine and coastal areas; the reduction of nutrients lost to the environment by at least half, pesticides by at least two thirds; the elimination of discharges of plastic waste; and the reduction of harmful incentives for biodiversity by at least 50 billion USD per year.
Biodiversity is also an integral part of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development under Goal 15 “Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss”, and under Goal 14 “Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development”.
Indicators
The indicators presented in this section describe selected climate hazards and their inter-connection with biodiversity:
Number of climate-related hazards that regions are prone to experience;
Annual surface temperature change; population exposure to hot summer days and to tropical nights;
Welfare cost from exposure to high temperatures;
Cropland exposure to extreme precipitation events;
Soil moisture anomaly in cropland;
Forested areas exposed to fire danger;
Land exposure to cyclones;
Population and built-up area exposure to river flooding;
Terrestrial and marine protected areas.
The indicators build on data available for most LAC countries. These data derive from work on climate hazards carried out under the International Programme for Action on Climate (IPAC) (see below) and from work on protected areas drawing on the World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA) maintained by UNEP-WCMC.
Exposure to climate hazards
Measurement framework
To track the most significant impacts of climate change and inform adaptation policies, the OECD has developed a database and a first set of indicators to monitor climate-related hazards and exposure to these hazards (Maes et al., 2022[39]). The indicator set is based on the IPCC conceptualisation of climate risk, which considers climate-related hazard, exposure and vulnerability as the key dimensions (Figure 15).
Figure 15. Conceptual illustration of key risk dimensions linked to climate-related impacts
Source: IPCC, 2014. A more elaborate version of this figure is available in AR6 Working Group II (IPCC, 2022[40]) and detailed descriptions for each dimension are available in (Maes et al., 2022[39]).
A climate-related hazard is a “potentially damaging climate-related physical event, phenomenon, or human activity that may cause the loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation” (UNDRRR, 2020[41]). Climate-related hazards can include both sudden onset hazards (i.e. event-driven hazards such as heatwaves or cyclones) and slow onset hazards (i.e. long-term changes in the mean and variability of climate patterns such as mean precipitation or temperature).
The indicators can help identify and understand the impacts of climate-related hazards and the exposure of people and assets to these hazards in LAC, with focus on seven types of natural hazards that are influenced by climate change: (1) extreme temperature, (2) extreme precipitation, (3) drought, (4) wildfire, (5) wind threats, (6) river flooding and (7) coastal flooding (Maes et al., 2022[39]).
Recent trends and developments
Climate change impacts are particularly acute in LAC where the very close socio-economic relationship with natural resources and the environment makes countries more vulnerable to climate change. Warming temperatures, and extreme precipitation events that lead to floods, landslides and droughts, sea level rise, coastal erosion, ocean acidification, and storm surges are expected to become more frequent and intense, with serious adverse socio‑economic consequences on the region (OECD et al., 2022[5]).
The region is disproportionately affected by the consequences of climate change. Thirteen of the fifty countries most affected by climate change worldwide are in the region (German Watch, 2021[42]). Around 18% of the more than 11 thousand climate‑related extreme weather events registered in the world between 1970 and 2019, occurred in LAC (WMO, 2021[43]). The average number of extreme climate‑related weather events in LAC increased by 62%, from 0.55 events per year during the period 1980-2000 to 0.89 during the period 2001-2022 (EM-DAT, 2023[44]).1
Knowing the areas that are most affected by climate-related hazards helps countries focus their adaptation, recovery and emergency actions where they are most needed. Figure 16 presents one such hazard, notably, heat stress caused by tropical nights where the minimum temperature exceeds 20°C.
Figure 16. A large share of the LAC region is exposed to high levels of heat stress caused by tropical nights
Note: Tropical nights are defined as nights where the minimum temperature exceeds 20°C.
Source: Maes, M., et al. (2022), "Monitoring exposure to climate-related hazards: Indicator methodology and key results", OECD Environment Working Papers, No. 201, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/da074cb6-en.
Temperature change
Over the past decades, population exposure to heat stress has increased significantly. In 2019-21, LAC countries experienced an average increase in surface temperature of around 0.6°C compared to the 1981-2010 average. Temperature increases were higher in Central America (+0.85°C on average) and more modest in the Caribbean (0.5°C). Guatemala and Belize experienced the highest increases of over 1°C. (Figure 17). Average temperature increases, however, often do not clearly express the impact of heat stress on human livelihoods. One option is to track average daily temperature over a certain time period and to define a “hot summer day” as one with temperature above 35°C to give an indication of heat stress. In 2021, about 9% of the population in LAC countries was exposed to more than 2 weeks of hot summer days, a 3% increase since 1979. This average, however, masks important national variations. For example, nearly 90% of Paraguay’s population is exposed to more than 2 weeks of hot summer days, compared to only 28% in 1979 (Figure 18).
For tropical countries, high temperatures are best represented by the prevalence of tropical nights. In 2021, 77% of the population in the Caribbean was exposed to at least 2 weeks of tropical nights (measured as a minimum temperature above 20°C) (Figure 19).
High temperatures and heat waves impact human health in various ways. They are associated with increased mortality due to, among others, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, hypertensive heart disease, diabetes, respiratory infections and obstructive pulmonary diseases. Between 1990 and 2019, the estimated number of heat-related premature deaths has increased from 18 to 23 deaths per million inhabitants across LAC. This is more than three times the OECD average of 7 premature deaths in 2019. Countries such as El Salvador, Barbados, Paraguay, Grenada, Belize, Brazil, Cuba, Colombia, Jamaica, and Haiti stand above the LAC average. The associated welfare cost represents about 0.23% of GDP, more than twice the OECD average (of 0.06%) (Figure 20).
Extreme precipitation
Countries that depend on agricultural production are more vulnerable to rising temperatures combined with extreme rainfall events. Many LAC countries are experiencing an increase in extreme precipitation, which can trigger the destruction of crops, landslides, or other extreme events. In 2020, LAC countries had 6.9% of their cropland exposed to more than one week of extreme precipitation (i.e. precipitation exceeding the 99th percentile of the reference period 1981-2010), compared to 5.2% in 2000. In some countries such as Suriname, Guyana, and Trinidad and Tobago, this share is much higher (64%, 59%, and 29% respectively). A few countries experienced a significant increase since 2000, including Surinam, Guyana, Nicaragua and Guatemala (Figure 21).
Droughts
For many years, South America has been affected by severe droughts and poor water availability. In Central America available freshwater resources per capita are projected to decrease by at least 82% by 2100 compared to 2005, while total rainfall is expected to decrease by 11% by 2050 (ECLAC, 2010[45]). These developments are expected to impact agricultural productivity and raise concerns over food security (IPCC, 2022[40]).
Across LAC countries cropland soil moisture, which is used to monitor the intensity of droughts, decreased on average by 2.5% between the periods 1981-2010 and 2017-2021. Anomalies in cropland soil moisture affect primarily South America, although almost all LAC countries experience a decline. The countries most affected by droughts are Paraguay, Argentina, and Brazil, which experienced a decline in cropland soil moisture of more than 8.6%, 7.7%, and 5.8% respectively (Figure 22).
Wildfires
Wildfires are an increasing concern for LAC countries. The danger of wildfires has grown in the past decade driven by high temperatures and increased incidence of drought in many areas (Hartinger et al., 2023[46]). For example, in summer 2023 (January-February), Chile experienced wildfires that generated significant losses of life and infrastructure.
The region is endowed with unique and diverse biomes, where wildfires have an important role in the ecosystem dynamics, such as in the Brazilian Cerrado. The Amazon rainforest biome however is not adapted to exposure to fire during the life cycle of its plant species and has a relatively low resilience to wildfires. This vulnerability is further exacerbated by land use change and deforestation (Hartinger et al., 2023[46]).
The forested area exposed to wildfire danger in LAC is very large, 32% on average, which puts people and ecosystems at risk. In some countries such as Jamaica, Paraguay, Mexico and El Salvador, over 70% of the forested area is exposed to wildfire risks. The proportions are smaller in Brazil and Venezuela (46% and 40% respectively), but the areas exposed are large because of the size of these countries. They cover over 2.2 million km2, an area larger than the size of Mexico (Figure 23).
Wildfires can lead to severe forest and biodiversity losses. This is of particular concern in South America that holds 21% of the world’s forests, including the Amazon, the Pantanal and El Chaco. In the Amazon, continued deforestation and wildfires reduce the ability of the forest to act as carbon sinks and, combined with climate change, could lead to a non-reversible tipping point in the Amazon ecosystem that could become a non-forest ecosystem. This would in turn affect the Amazon’s hydrological cycle, which is fundamental for economic activity and broader wellbeing in Brazil and adjacent South American countries (Hartinger et al., 2023[46]).
Wind threats
Climate change also exacerbates storms, which can lead to losses of human life, destroy infrastructure, and increase the costs of losses and damages, and of replacement and reconstruction. Tropical cyclones significantly affect a subset of LAC countries due to their geographic position. In the Caribbean, almost all countries are exposed to tropical cyclones. Belize and Mexico are also at risk, with more than 50% of their populations and built-up areas exposed to extreme tropical cyclones (Figure 24).2 Between 2000 and 2019, an average of 17 hurricanes per year and 23 category‑5 hurricanes were recorded, mostly in Caribbean and Central American countries (OCHA, 2020[47]).
River flooding
River flooding is not a major concern in the LAC region. On average, 5% of the population and 4% of buildings are exposed to risks of river flooding. Due to the presence of the Amazon river, which carries one-fifth of the world’s freshwater (Ramos et al., 2023[48]), South America is the sub-region most vulnerable to river flooding, with about 12% of the population and 10% of the buildings exposed. The countries most exposed are Suriname, Guyana and Argentina (Figure 25 and Figure 26).
Box 3. The increasing cost of climate-related hazards in LAC
Worldwide, the costs of climate-related hazards put increasing pressures on public finances and can result in fiscal risks. Governments will face higher costs for relief, recovery and rebuilding of publicly owned building and infrastructure in the aftermath of more frequent or severe extreme events, as well as increased costs related to investing in adaptation. They will also face increasing demands for financial support from households, businesses and sub-national governments impacted by extreme events. The costs from natural disasters alone were estimated at USD 280 billion in 2021, representing approximately 0.29% of global GDP (Munich RE, 2022[49]).
Many LAC countries are already experiencing a fall in agricultural productivity and tourism, as well as climate‑driven migration and high reconstruction costs after natural disasters. For example, in 2016 heavy rains in the Dominican Republic generated severe economic losses due to reduced crop yields, and during the 2017 hurricane season, an estimated loss of USD 52 million was recorded due to lower touristic activity. In Haiti and Puerto Rico, two of the three most affected areas in the world between 1999 and 2018, annual GDP losses reached 2.38% and 3.76%, respectively (OECD et al., 2022[5]). In 2019, hurricane Dorian caused economic impacts that are estimated at a quarter of the Bahamas’ GDP (Zegarra, M. et al., 2020[50]).
For many LAC countries the fiscal capacity to deal with the increasing impacts of climate change is limited. For lower middle‑income and low‑income countries a natural disaster results on average in costs of 0.8% and 1.1% of GDP respectively, and in an increased fiscal deficit of 0.8% of GDP and 0.9% respectively (OECD et al., 2022[5]).
The costs of inaction may be even higher. In the Caribbean, the annual cost of inaction to deal with the effects of sea level rise could reach USD 22 billion per year by 2050 (10% of GDP) and USD 46 billion by 2100 (22% of GDP) (OECD et al., 2022[5]).
Comparability, interpretation and data availability
The climate hazard indicators presented are a selection of a broader set of indicators on climate-related hazards developed by (Maes et al., 2022[39]). They are based on data from official sources such as the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, among others. For a detailed discussion see (Maes et al., 2022[39]). All regional averages presented here are simple, non-weighted averages over the countries in the LAC region. They therefore do not consider differences in area or population and represent the exposure of an average LAC country to natural hazards, but not the actual share of land or population of the region that is exposed.
It is to be noted that vulnerability, an important dimension of disaster risk, is currently not measured because of limitations in data availability.
Climate impacts and biodiversity
The LAC region is home to about half of the world’s biodiversity and holds one-third of global freshwater resources (OECD et al., 2022[5]). It hosts 23% of the world’s forests, including the Amazon, the world’s largest rain forest. Six of the world’s 17 mega-diverse countries are located in Latin America, namely Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela. Wildlife or green corridors, such as the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor, play an essential role in the sequestration of carbon globally. Many economic activities in LAC rely on the integrity and quality of its ecosystems and natural resources, including tourism, agriculture, fisheries and forestry. This dependence makes the region particularly vulnerable to biodiversity loss and climate-related impacts. Land use change, urban sprawl, deforestation, overexploitation and illegal trafficking of species, pollution from intensive agricultural practices, mining and climate change exert continued pressures on the natural environment causing habitat loss and fragmentation, and a degradation of ecosystem services. This in turn undermines the ability of ecosystems to provide a shield against growing climate‑related risks and reduces their resilience to impacts of climate change.
The loss of biodiversity is a major concern for LAC (IPBES, 2018[51]). The Red List Index, which monitors the combined extinction risk for birds, mammals, amphibians, cycads and corals, has fallen by 3% since 2000 (average for 11 LAC countries), twice the rate observed across OECD countries(WWF, 2020[43]). While Chile, Ecuador and Mexico have experienced the largest declines, every country in the region is considered to have “high‑risk” rates of decline(UN DESA, n.d.[44]) (OECD, 2021[52]).
Recent trends and developments
The region has made progress in taking measures to protect its biodiversity, its natural resources and the associated cultural resources. In 2022, it had 24% of its total land area (almost 5 million km2) and 21% of its Exclusive Economic Zones (over 4 million km2), designated as terrestrial and marine protected areas, respectively. (Figure 27). As a whole the region achieved the 2020 Aichi target to protect at least 17% of terrestrial and inland water areas, and 10% of coastal and marine areas. Progress remains to be done to achieve the GBF target of the CBD to conserve and manage 30% of the national territory including terrestrial, inland water, and coastal and marine areas by 2030.
The share of terrestrial protected areas has increased steadily over the past few decades from an average below 5% in 1980. Countries driving the trend include Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Guatemala, Panama, Trinidad and Tobago and Venezuela, all of which have surpassed the Aichi 2030 target. Nevertheless, most of these countries rely on the least stringent3 protection categories (such as protected landscapes) rather than on strict nature reserves, national parks and wilderness areas (International Union for the Conservation of Nature [IUCN] categories I-II), which are usually more restrictive in the activities permitted.
Marine and coastal protected areas are less commonly designated throughout the LAC region, with 5 countries reaching already the 2030 GBF target. The share of marine protected areas increased slowly, remaining below 5% until 2015. The increase to 21% in 2022 was driven by the designation of large marine protected areas by Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Panama between 2015 and 2018. As for terrestrial areas, most marine areas are managed under less stringent protection categories. Only 10 territories designated strict nature reserves, national parks or wilderness areas (IUCN categories I-II).
Several LAC countries started to develop and implement nature-based solutions (NbS) to address climate change (EUROCLIMA, 2022[16]). NbS generally refer to a broad set of actions that protect, sustainably manage, restore, or modify ecosystems to address policy objectives such as climate change mitigation or adaptation while simultaneously providing biodiversity benefits. These have become increasingly important in climate action and countries are including them in the NDCs as part of their overall policy efforts. Twelve LAC countries explicitly mention NbS in their NDCs. For example, Paraguay’s NDC proposes to “protect and restore wetlands and water sources”; Argentina is committed to “strengthen and expand national Protected Areas”; Costa Rica, the first tropical country to have reversed deforestation, is preparing a methodological guide for NbS in infrastructure; and Chile is planting 200 000 hectares of forest, a third of which with native species(EUROCLIMA, 2022[45]).
Comparability, interpretation and data availability
Data on protected areas are available for most LAC countries. Although national classifications differ, the IUCN has developed internationally agreed definitions of protected areas, classifying them as: strict nature reserves and wilderness areas (I), national parks (II), natural monuments or features (III), habitat or species management areas (IV), protected landscapes or seascapes (V), and protected areas with sustainable use of natural resources (VI).
The extent and management types of terrestrial and marine protected areas indicate countries’ efforts to safeguard habitats and species, as well as landscapes shaped by human-environment interactions that are valued for cultural or other reasons. Indicators on the extent of protected areas do however not reflect the effectiveness of the management of these areas. It is also to be noted that protected areas are not always representative of national biodiversity or sufficiently connected.
Notes
← 1. Extreme events recorded are defined as those resulting in either 100 000 or more people affected, 1 000 or more deaths, or at least 2% of GDP in estimated economic damages.
← 2. Extreme cyclones are defined as those that occur in a period of 100 years
← 3. IUCN categories are not truly hierarchical, but categories I and II are very likely to be more restrictive in the type of activities that are permitted therein.