Africa can improve the productivity and the quality of its economic growth by investing in a virtuous cycle of better skills for better jobs. Labour markets must rapidly increase the supply of and demand for skilled workers. On the supply side, while education levels have progressed, the quality of education must catch up with other developing regions. Over the last two decades, primary school completion rates have increased from about 55% to 75%. Yet, children in Africa benefit from only 5.1 learning-adjusted years of schooling, compared to 7.2 in developing Asia and 7.8 in Latin America and the Caribbean. On the demand side, labour markets must create quality jobs for skilled workers. Over 80% of Africa’s youth in school aspire to work in high-skilled occupations, but only 8% find such jobs. The demand for skilled workers remains low because employment growth has been confined to low-productivity sectors like agriculture, retail trade and services. About 82% of the continent’s workers are informal, compared to 56% for Latin America and the Caribbean and 73% for developing Asia. In addition, highly educated workers tend to migrate outside the continent: among tertiary-educated individuals born in Africa, 17% resided abroad in 2020, of which 72% chose high-income countries.
Africa’s better-educated and growing population is changing the global workforce. The continent’s working-age population (i.e. 15-64 years old) will almost double in the next 26 years, from 849 million in 2024 to 1 556 million in 2050. This growth will account for 85% of the increase in the global working-age population. The number of young Africans having completed an upper-secondary or tertiary education will more than double between 2020 and 2040, from 103 million to 240 million.
Socio-economic returns on better education are higher in Africa than in other world regions. Each additional year of education could boost African learners’ earnings by 8.2-11.4%, compared to 7.6-9.1% for countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. In manufacturing, evidence from 27 African countries shows that a 10 percentage point increase in the share of employees with high school and university degrees is associated with an increase in average firm productivity by 4.2% and 4.8%, respectively. If all of Africa’s children acquired foundational literacy and numeracy skills, gross domestic product could increase by more than 22-fold (more than any other world region), by about USD 154 trillion.
African labour markets are adapting to new trends, which is redefining skill demand and supply. As the continent’s digitalisation advances, the number of jobs requiring digital skills is growing. By 2030, 70% of these jobs will demand basic digital skills and 23% intermediate digital skills, especially in services. Developing renewable energy and sustainable infrastructure could generate over 9 million new jobs by 2030 and a further 3 million jobs by 2050. Many skill shortages in the renewable energy sector are found in vocational roles. Climate adaptation measures, including improved climate literacy and climate-smart agriculture, will increase productivity and provide additional employment opportunities.
African countries would benefit from skills development policies that balance multiple trade-offs, including between high productivity, employment potential and inclusivity. Policies must take into account each country’s comparative advantages, capacities and financial resources. Africa’s Development Dynamics 2024 proposes five policy options to bridge Africa’s skill gaps:
1. To be effective, skill strategies must be based on detailed analysis of data pertaining to each national context. Countries face different situations: African economies that are diversifying (e.g. Egypt, Eswatini, Mauritius, Senegal and Tunisia) rely on occupations requiring more foundational and soft skills as well as more skills in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) than agrarian countries (e.g. Burundi, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique, Tanzania and Uganda), which depend on agricultural employment. Only Algeria, Mauritius, Morocco and Tunisia show STEM graduation rates of above 20%, coupled with large tertiary enrolment. To align the supply of skills with future demand, national strategies can use granular and big data (like from job boards) to identify skill gaps in targeted sectors. Improving labour market information systems, increasing the frequency of surveys and collaborating more closely with the private sector are ways to better assess skill supply and demand.
2. African countries can increase education spending and improve its efficiency through cost-effective interventions and learning assessments. Cost-effective interventions include structured pedagogy and targeted teaching by learning level. Comparable national, regional (e.g. PASEC and SACMEQ) and international (e.g. PISA, TIMSS and PIRLS) learning assessments can serve to monitor education outcomes and policy impacts, providing evidence for policy making.
3. Training and skill recognition can improve informal and female workers’ productivity. Entrepreneurial, managerial and soft skills training are widespread. Training formats vary in effectiveness, and they need to be chosen with care to increase productivity and inclusivity. Recognition of prior learning validates knowledge that informal workers have acquired without formal training and can help them find more productive jobs. Cabo Verde, Ghana, Nigeria, Tanzania, Togo and Tunisia, among others, have developed such programmes.
4. Technical and vocational education and training (TVET) institutions can better adapt their training offers to Africa’s emerging skill needs. TVET institutions can become more attractive to students and employers by designing more relevant curricula, including on digital skills, and by developing stronger linkages with the private sector. Only 30% of surveyed TVET trainers in Africa have recent experience in companies related to the sectors they teach. Many good practices can be emulated, including Morocco’s ten Delegated Management Institutes located within special economic zones to provide tailor-made training courses. National funding for TVET can be made more accountable and can rely less on development partners.
5. Regional frameworks and broader international partnerships can accelerate skills development. Harmonising policies across countries can permit skill mobility, free trade and the free movement of people across borders, creating benefits from their interplay. The East Africa Skills for Transformation and Regional Integration Project (EASTRIP) brings a regional approach to specialised TVET skills. Across Africa, AUDA-NEPAD’s regional Centres of Excellence help anticipate sectoral skill needs. International partnerships and university exchanges, for example programmes like ERASMUS+, are crucial for skills development and retention.