Africa's Development Dynamics 2024

Overview

Skills development can increase the productivity of Africa’s talent pool and create jobs

To improve productivity and the quality of its economic growth, Africa must invest in a virtuous cycle of better skills for better jobs. In 2025, Africa’s real growth is projected at 4.0%, outpacing Latin America and the Caribbean (2.5%) and close behind developing Asia (4.8%). And yet the continent’s economic growth continues to generate too few quality jobs, for the growth does not translate into sufficient productivity gains (AUC/OECD, 2019_[1]; AUC/OECD, 2018_[2]). Skill gaps are one central reason. Partly because of shortages in skilled labour – notably in sectors such as agrifood and renewable energies – private investment remains below the continent’s potential (AUC/OECD, 2023_[3]). Africa has a higher share of informal employment than any other world region, as a result of slow productive transformation; an estimated 82% of all the continent’s workers are in informal employment, compared to 56% in Latin America and the Caribbean and 73% in developing Asia. In South Africa, a country with a low share of informality, 76% of employers report difficulty finding the talent they need (ManpowerGroup, 2022_[4]). Skilled workers are necessary to strengthen Africa’s fledgling productive transformation and to deliver quality jobs at scale. The 2024 edition of the Africa’s Development Dynamics report therefore addresses skills, jobs and productivity, coinciding with the African Union’s choice of “education” as its theme of the year.

Continuing to expand quality education generates larger returns in Africa than in other world regions.

• Children in Africa benefit from only 5.1 learning-adjusted years of schooling (a metric combining quantity and quality of schooling),1 compared to 7.2 in developing Asia, 7.8 in Latin America and the Caribbean and 10.5 in high-income countries. Math and reading proficiency is lower in Africa than in other world regions (Figure 1).

• Returns to education are higher in Africa than elsewhere in the world. Each additional year of education could increase African learners’ earnings by 8.2% to 11.4%, compared to 7.6% to 9.1% for Latin American and Caribbean countries (Peet, Fink and Fawzi, 2015_[5]).

• Africa’s gross domestic product (GDP) could increase by about USD 154 trillion before the end of the century – a more than 22-fold increase, greater than any other world region – if all African children attained foundational skill levels (Gust, Hanushek and Woessmann, 2024_[6]).2

• Firms benefit from better-educated workers as well. In manufacturing, evidence from over 7 600 firms across 27 African countries shows that a 10 percentage point increase in the share of employees with high school and university degrees is associated with an increase in average firm productivity by 4.2% and 4.8%, respectively (Okumu and Mawejje, 2020_[7]).

Workers lack the specific skill sets required for existing jobs (limited supply), while not enough quality jobs are available to further build their skills (limited demand). In a survey of six African countries, many secondary school graduates did not meet employers’ expectations in terms of technical skills (almost 50%), digital, business and managerial skills (25%) and soft skills (10-40%) (ACET, 2022_[8]). In Ghana, about 14% of surveyed companies reported recruiting employees with digital skills internationally, because they could not find skilled local talent (IFC, 2019_[9]). Over 80% of African youth in school aspire to work in high-skilled occupations, but only 8% find such jobs (OECD, 2017_[10]).3

Skill gaps vary between countries. African economies that are diversifying (e.g. Egypt, Eswatini, Mauritius, Senegal and Tunisia) rely on occupations that require 3.8 percentage points more foundational and soft skills than countries that depend on agricultural employment (e.g. Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique, Tanzania and Uganda).

Figure 1. Minimum proficiency in mathematics and reading and primary school completion in selected countries in Latin America and the Caribbean and Africa, 2019

Note: Regional discrepancies in the proportion of children in sixth grade achieving minimum proficiency levels could be partly due to differences in assessment frameworks, contexts and measured constructs. All African countries are displayed for which data are available. Data for Latin America and the Caribbean only include the top, middle and bottom performers out of all countries that were part of the assessment.

Source: Authors’ compilation based on UNESCO/PASEC/LLECE/IEA (2022_[11]), “Establishing a concordance between regional (ERCE and PASEC) and international (TIMSS/PIRLS) assessments”, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/361903612_Rosetta-Stone_Policy-Brief_2022.

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Gender and rural-urban divides in skills development cause significant disparities in employment and remuneration. Girls and women face more significant barriers to skills development than boys and men, as discriminatory gender norms often restrict their school or training attendance and job opportunities (ACET, 2022_[12]; OECD, 2022_[13]). The rate of out-of-school primary-aged children is 4.2 percentage points higher for girls than for boys (UNESCO, 2022_[14]). The gender pay gap is around 30% in most African countries (UN Women, 2022_[15]). The share of workers in skilled occupations is around 27% among men versus 15% among women, and 30% among urban inhabitants versus 13% among rural inhabitants. These inequalities intersect, with less than 10% of rural women found in skilled occupations compared to almost 45% of urban men. Hourly wages for all workers in rural areas are only half of those in large cities (OECD/UNECA/AfDB, 2022_[16]).

Highly skilled workers tend to move out of Africa. Low-skilled migrants from African countries mostly remain within the continent, with skills development figuring as one of a range of factors underlying migration decisions. For highly skilled migrants, skill-based employment opportunities represent a more important factor. In 2020, 74% of highly educated migrant workers opted to move to another continent; the vast majority (98%) chose high-income countries as a destination. Almost half (47%) of tertiary-educated individuals born in East Africa resided abroad in 2020.4

Africa’s talent pool is growing fast, and targeted investment in education and training promises to fuel productivity

As Africa’s growing population is becoming better educated, the continent is developing an unprecedented pool of talent and improving its age structure for a demographic dividend. Africa’s working-age population (i.e. 15-64 years old) will almost double by 2050, from 849 million in 2024 to 1 556 million in 2050. This growth will account for 85% of the total increase in the global working-age population. Projecting constant enrolment ratios, the number of young Africans having completed an upper-secondary or tertiary education will more than double between 2020 and 2040, from 103 million to 240 million. In the past 20 years, mean years of schooling have increased by over 2 years for 28 African countries with available data. Continuing progress, particularly in girls’ education, will also shape Africa’s demographics favourably by postponing the age of child pregnancy. This will raise Africa’s demographic dividend, by increasing the active population compared to the dependency-age population. Better quality education for millions of Africans can result in impressive progress throughout society.

Skills development that effectively reaches informal workers, especially in agriculture and trade, can increase productivity for millions of workers. The share of youth not in employment, education or training across 12 African countries averages 7 percentage points higher for young people from households that rely solely on informal employment (OECD, 2024_[17]). Vulnerable workers5 account for 93% of the labour force in agriculture, forestry and fishing and 84% in wholesale and retail trade. Together, these two sectors account for about half of the jobs created over the last two decades, and they have the lowest share of occupations with a high complexity and range of tasks and duties. “By 2040, own account and family workers in Africa will represent 65% of employment under current trends”, rising from 325 million to 529 million, according to AUC/OECD (2021_[18]).

Greater investment in technical skills such as science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) increases labour productivity. Workers with STEM skills can support the development of technology-intensive value chains such as automotive, electronics, solar panels, pharmaceuticals and medical devices, and mining (UNCTAD, 2023_[19]; Dugbazah et al., 2021_[20]). Yet, when investing in technical disciplines, African policy makers and educational institutions often have to choose between inclusion or selective excellence. Across Africa, only Algeria, Mauritius, Morocco and Tunisia show STEM graduation rates of above 20%, coupled with large overall tertiary enrolment (Figure 2). Consequently, African countries have a limited number of engineering professionals per capita: they range from 540 per 100 000 inhabitants in Seychelles to less than 45 in the DR Congo, Madagascar, Malawi and Mozambique. This compares to 1 160 engineering professionals in the United Kingdom and 850 in the United States (UNESCO/ICEE, 2021_[21]; SADC, 2018_[22]).

Figure 2. Percentage of tertiary education graduates from programmes in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) and gross enrolment rates in African countries, average 2015-23

Note: Gross enrolment rates represent total enrolment in tertiary education (ISCED 5 to 8), expressed as a percentage of the total population of the five-year age group following on from secondary school leaving.

Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics (2023_[23]), UIS Stat (database), http://data.uis.unesco.org/.

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Digital skills are in demand across the continent, while the need for green skills is increasing with climate challenges

The digital revolution is redefining the demand for and the supply of skills in the African labour market. As the continent’s digitalisation advances, the demand for basic digital skills (e.g. Internet navigation, mobile communication) and intermediate digital skills (e.g. use of spreadsheet and presentation software) is growing fast, and the demand for advanced skills (e.g. programming) is also emerging. By 2030, it is projected that 70% of the demand for digital skills will be for basic skills and 23% for intermediate skills. Most of the demand will be in services (Figure 3). While the supply of basic digital skills is growing, intermediate and advanced digital skills remain scarce (Table 1).

Table 1. Demand for and supply of digital skills across Africa

	Basic digital skills (e.g. smartphone use, e-mail, basic file management, web browsing, mobile communication)	Intermediate digital skills (e.g. use of multiple devices, e-commerce and financial software, professional social media, data entry and management)	Advanced digital skills (e.g. web design, programming, AI development, data science)
Demand	Very large demand 70% of demand for digital skills is expected to be for basic digital skills by 2030 (World Bank, 2021[24]).	Large demand 23% of demand for digital skills is expected to be for intermediate skills by 2030 (World Bank, 2021[24]).	Emerging demand While AI markets are more mature in high-income economies, some African countries are emerging as regional AI leaders (World Bank, 2021[24]).
Supply	Growing supply 26.4% of the African population knows how to use a mobile money account. Across 15 African countries, 9% of the young population possesses basic digital skills (Authors’ calculations based on World Bank (2021[25]); and UNICEF (2022[26])).	Limited supply 5% of the young population possesses intermediate digital skills across 15 African countries (Authors’ calculation based on UNICEF (2022[26])).	Scarce supply Africa comprises only 1.3% of global users of GitHub – a widely used platform for programme developers (OECD et al., 2021[27]).

Note: AI – artificial intelligence.

Source: Authors’ compilation.

Figure 3. Jobs requiring digital skills by 2030 in five African countries, by skill level

Note: Data cover Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria and Rwanda.

Source: Authors’ calculations based on World Bank (2021_[24]), Demand for Digital Skills in Sub-Saharan Africa, https://www.datocms-assets.com/37703/1623797656-demand-for-digital-skills-in-sub-saharan-africa.pdf.

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Addressing climate change can create jobs and raise Africa’s productivity in key sectors, but more green skills are needed. Producing less than 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions created by human activity, Africa is the world region that contributes the least to climate change; yet it is the most vulnerable and most exposed to the consequences of climate change (IPCC, 2022_[28]). Notwithstanding, a green transition could create job and growth opportunities in Africa: renewable energy and sustainable infrastructure could generate over 9 million jobs from 2019 to 2030 and a further 3 million jobs by 2050 (IRENA/AfDB, 2022_[29]). Specific skills are needed, and many skill shortages in the renewable energy sector are found in vocational roles (Chapter 6). These mid-skilled roles often require specialised training beyond that needed for typical energy-related jobs (IEA, 2023_[30]). Measures for adapting to climate change, including improved climate literacy and climate-smart agriculture, can increase productivity and provide additional employment opportunities (Chapter 7) (IPCC, 2022_[28]; Williams et al., 2021_[31]).

Better policies contribute to productive and inclusive skills development in Africa

African countries and their development partners can expand efforts to deliver education for all Africans. With rising primary school completion rates, from about 55% in 2000 to 75% in 2022, millions more children receive an education today than at the turn of the century (Figure 4, Panel A). However, to bring the rate closer to that of other world regions, more investment in skills remains a priority, despite constrained budgets (IMF, 2024_[32]). On average, in 2021, African governments spent 3.7% of GDP on education, accounting for 14.5% of total public expenditure. These shares are slightly below the international benchmarks set by UNESCO of at least 4% of GDP and 15% of total public expenditure (UNESCO, 2015_[33]). Public spending on education has stagnated since 2000 (Figure 4, Panel B), due to important fiscal constraints (OECD/AUC/ATAF, 2023_[34]) and debt concerns (AUC/OECD, 2023_[3]). Donors’ disbursements in education have also flatlined in Africa, at around 10% of overall official development assistance disbursements since 2013 (Figure 4, Panel C).

Figure 4. Primary school completion, public education spending and share of official development assistance allocated to education, by world region, 2000-22

Note: Primary school completion rate is the number of new entrants (enrolments minus repeaters) in the last grade of primary education, regardless of age, divided by the population at the entrance age for the last grade of primary education. The earliest available year in the Creditor Reporting System (CRS) database in Panel C is 2013. The category “High-income countries (no LAC)” is omitted from Panel C. ODA = official development assistance. LAC = Latin America and the Caribbean.

Source: Panel A: UNESCO Institute for Statistics (2023_[23]), UIS Stat (database), http://data.uis.unesco.org/; Panel B: IMF (2023_[35]), World Economic Outlook (database), https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO; Panel C: OECD.Stat (2024_[36]), Creditor Reporting System (CRS) (database), https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=crs1.

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To be effective, skills development policies must balance high productivity, employment potential and inclusiveness and consider each country’s comparative advantages, capacities and financial resources. In this respect, this report proposes policy actions to tackle five challenges related to Africa’s skill gaps that are preventing greater employment creation and productivity (Table 2).

Table 2. Challenges and policy actions to boost skills, jobs and productivity

Challenges	Policy agenda	Policy actions
Population growth that is outpacing formal job growth; significant country differences in the selection of skill supply and demand, especially for digital and green skills	Nationally specific strategies identifying priority sectors, based on granular data, to tackle emerging skill needs	Target skill strategies through harmonised, up-to-date and comparable data on skill mismatches Select priority sectors with high productivity and employment potential, based on national comparative advantages Integrate digital and green skills into strategies, addressing country-specific skill gaps
Significant foundational skill shortages; gender and rural-urban divides	Learning assessments and cost-effective interventions to expand quality education	Assess weaknesses in national education systems that result in foundational skill gaps Target investments towards the most cost-effective measures Monitor progress against international benchmarks to inform reforms
Employment growth confined to low-productivity/high-informality sectors; gender and rural-urban divides	Innovative on- and off-the-job training and skill recognition to improve the labour productivity of informal and female workers	Expand entrepreneurial and soft skills training to impart transferable skills that increase worker productivity Offer certified apprenticeships in co-operation with the private sector to provide practical experience and documented technical skills Establish frameworks for the recognition of prior learning and professional certificates
Varying technical skill needs across African countries; basic and intermediate digital skill gaps	Technical and vocational education and training (TVET) institutions to embrace innovative approaches that better respond to emerging skill needs	Involve the private sector, including small and medium-sized enterprises, in programme delivery to ensure effectiveness and employability Increase the appeal of TVET to students by upgrading institutions’ curricula, governance and reputation Increase female and rural participation through local outreach and private sector involvement Make TVET levies more accountable and improve the co-ordination of partner finance
Limited high-skilled migration within Africa; large high-skilled emigration to high-income countries	Regional integration of African skills development policies	Identify skill needs within cross-border labour pools and regional value chains Address skill shortages and gaps along regional value chains Improve cross-border skill recognition and portability Reduce talent outflow and encourage the international circulation of skills via partnerships

Source: Authors’ compilation.

Significant country differences require nationally specific skill strategies based on more comprehensive data analysis. To align the supply of skills with current and future demand, national strategies can use granular data analysis to focus skills development on priority sectors and specific digital and green skill gaps. By strengthening the quality of labour market information systems, increasing the frequency of surveys and fostering collaboration with the private sector, African countries can better assess skill supply and demand. Using big data, especially from online job boards, can facilitate real-time, detailed analysis of skill demand and help anticipate future needs.

In East Africa, Mauritius has established a comprehensive digital policy that encourages firms to attract employees with skills and incites workers to acquire skills, particularly in research and development and innovation related to artificial intelligence (AI) (ANDP, 2019_[37]; Republic of Mauritius, 2018_[38]). Ethiopia, Rwanda and Uganda are also formulating policies specifically on AI skills development (Diplo, 2022_[39]).

Efficient education spending, cost-effective interventions and learning assessments can help expand quality education. Africa’s spending inefficiencies in education remain high: between 2000 and 2017, they were equivalent to over USD 40 billion annually (IMF, 2021_[40]). To achieve better learning outcomes with limited funds, cost-effective interventions, such as support for teachers with structured pedagogy and targeted teaching by learning level, could be expanded (Angrist et al., 2023_[41]). Applying these types of interventions to reach 90% of primary school pupils in African countries would cost the equivalent of just 2.3% of the continent’s 2021 spending on education while generating a return of 1.2 learning-adjusted years of schooling.6 Comparable national, regional and international learning assessments can serve to monitor education outcomes and policy impacts.

In North Africa, Morocco’s Ministry of Education rolled out a roadmap for reforming the education system in 2022, designed to respond to the country’s low results in 2018 in PISA, the OECD’s Programme for International Student Assessment. The roadmap focuses on improving learning impact, student well-being and foundational learning results (Madrastna, 2022_[42]; Madrastna, 2022_[43]).

Training and skill recognition can increase informal and female workers’ productivity. Training in entrepreneurial, managerial and soft skills is widespread, but training formats vary in effectiveness and need to be chosen with care to increase productivity. For African enterprises in manufacturing and services that provide training to employees, sales per worker are around 20% higher than for those that do not. Yet less than 30% of firms registered in Africa provide formal training to employees, compared to almost 50% in Latin America (AfDB, 2020_[44]).7 Seventy-five per cent of informal apprentices find a job less than six months after finishing their apprenticeships, most of them becoming self-employed or being employed by the businesses that hosted their apprenticeships (ILO, 2022_[45]). Training programmes can also help reduce the gender pay gap: socio-emotional skills training can yield higher earnings for female workers and ensure a greater likelihood of success in their entrepreneurial endeavours (Baliamoune-Lutz, Brixiova and Ncube, 2014_[46]). Recognition of prior learning can create win-win scenarios for informal workers and employers, but the available support often remains unknown to both.

TVET institutions can better respond to Africa’s emerging skill needs. In the next 20 years, the number of secondary TVET students is expected to more than quadruple in agrarian economies like Burundi, Mali and Uganda and to increase ten-fold in Niger (ILO/World Bank/UNESCO, 2023_[47]). TVET institutions would benefit from an improved reputation and more relevant curricula, including on digital skills. Stronger linkages with the private sector can enhance the professionalisation of TVET trainers and help align skill supply with demand. Only 30% of TVET trainers in Africa have recent experience in companies related to the sectors they teach (IIEP-UNESCO, 2023_[48]). National funding for TVET can be more accountable since levy funds for training are often retained by the central government and diverted to other purposes. Of funds analysed in 29 African countries, the only country in which 100% of the training levies collected go to TVET is Senegal, compared to 60% in Niger, 17% in Zambia and 5% in Burkina Faso (UNESCO, 2022_[49]).

In West Africa, Benin’s National Strategy for Technical and Vocational Education and Training (SN-EFTP 2020-2030) envisages an increase in technical agricultural vocational institutions from around 10 to 30 by 2025 (Marie, 2022_[50]).

The regional integration of African skills development depends on harmonised policies and partnerships. Aligning relevant policies across countries can help close skill gaps, allowing African countries to reap the benefits of the interplay of skill mobility, free trade – notably while developing the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) – and the free movement of people across borders. AUDA-NEPAD’s five regional Centres of Excellence can help anticipate sectoral skills needed across Africa. Partnerships with international and private actors can help address challenges for skills development in regional value chains (OECD/AUC/EU/AUDA-NEPAD, 2023_[51]). University exchange programmes and skill mobility partnerships, within and beyond Africa, are crucial to retaining highly educated students and increasing the circulation of skills.

In Central and Southern Africa, the Centre of Excellence for Advanced Battery Research between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia supports public-private co-operation for training and research along different segments of value chains for electric vehicle batteries.

African regions can better leverage their comparative advantages to accelerate productive transformation and job creation. The report’s five regional chapters (Chapters 3-7) summarise some of the most salient characteristics of skills development in each region and highlight how each can accelerate skills development in strategic sectors. Case studies in those chapters propose ways to carry out the report’s five continental policy recommendations (Table 3) in specific sectors. Examples are below:

• Southern Africa’s mining sector would benefit from developing downstream industries where value addition per worker is higher than in extraction, like diamond cutting (e.g. in Botswana), steel production (e.g. in Zimbabwe), cobalt refining (e.g. in Zambia) and electric vehicle manufacturing (e.g. in Namibia and South Africa). Currently, technical skill shortages and predominantly informal employment prevent productivity increases. More than half of the region’s mining workers, mainly informal and low-skilled, are in artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM).

• Central Africa has significant reserves of strategic minerals, accounting for almost 70% of global cobalt production, 30% of tantalum production and 20% of manganese production, but it does not transform these resources within the region (e.g. the DR Congo produces 69% of the world’s cobalt but transforms less than 1% of it). Improving technical skills can help develop local mineral processing and transformation, increase the productivity of ASM workers, and meet the growing global demand.

• East Africa’s progress in digital skills development is highly uneven: the share of the population over 15 years old who possesses basic digital skills ranges from 33% in Mauritius to 4% in South Sudan. Country-specific expansion of digital skill provision, especially through TVET institutions, can be an effective response to the rising demand for digital skills in the region.

• North Africa has the greatest potential among African regions for developing solar and wind energy, and it is set to become the leading exporter of green hydrogen, with potential exports forecasted at USD 110 billion per year by 2050. Egypt, Morocco and Algeria have contributed to the expansion of solar energy in the region, ranking second, third and fourth for solar power generation on the continent. Egypt and Morocco also dominate African wind energy production, after South Africa (IRENA, 2023_[52]). Developing specific technical skills (e.g. in construction and installation) and managerial skills (e.g. in project management) in the renewable energy sector could create at least 2.7 million additional jobs, improve energy security, reduce air pollution and contribute to the global efforts to reduce greenhouse emissions.

• Between 5 and 9 West African countries usually rank among the world’s top 20 producers of a dozen agri-food products, such as fonio, shea nuts, yams and cocoa beans. Yet almost 24% of the region’s products are lost after harvest. Improving technical skills and conservation techniques can reduce this waste. Boosting research and development and green skills in the agri-food sector can support the development of higher-value products and enhance regional food security and resilience to climate change.

Table 3. Skills, jobs and productivity: Policy recommendations by region

Region	Case study	Policy recommendations
Southern Africa	Mining	Monitor skills development in alignment with regional standards and global best practices. Incorporate country-specific technical mining and complementary skill sets into mining education and training. Target education and training programmes directly towards women and workers in artisanal and small-scale mining.
Central Africa	Mining	Encourage the development of regional and national strategies and improve data collection. Promote public-private partnerships to improve TVET quality and offer training that responds to skill demand. Enhance the mining sector’s sustainability and inclusiveness through upskilling artisanal and small-scale miners. Strengthen transparency, accountability and multi-level governance for a better allocation of resources.
East Africa	Digital skills	Expand Internet access and integrate digital skills into education. Target intermediate and advanced digital skill provision towards country-specific needs and global demand. Enhance regional integration of digital markets, infrastructure and regional co-operation for skills development.
North Africa	Renewable energies	Develop national strategies for renewable energy that account for upcoming skill demand. Enhance skill supply by promoting on-the-job training, research and development, and centres of excellence. Support skills development through co-operation with public and private partners at all levels.
West Africa	Agri-food	Reinforce professionalisation through public-private partnerships and local initiatives. Reduce the skill gap through increased co-operation between research institutions and the private sector. Mobilise investment towards upskilling workers to respond to global challenges, particularly climate change.

Source: Authors’ compilation.

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Notes

← 1. Learning-adjusted years of schooling merge the quantity and quality of education into one metric, reflecting that similar durations of schooling can yield different learning outcomes. See Filmer et al. (2020_[53]) for the detailed methodology.

← 2. The model by Gust, Hanushek and Woessmann assumes constant labour demand for foundational skills, meaning that an increase in skill supply directly results in economic growth.

← 3. These numbers are drawn from a survey that covers 11 African countries among 32 low- and middle-income countries.

← 4. Authors’ calculations based on World Bank (2023_[56]).

← 5. For a definition of vulnerable workers, see Chapter 1.

← 6. An additional 1.2 years of schooling would translate into around an 11% increase in earnings [authors’ calculation based on estimated returns to education in Africa in Peet, Fink and Fawzi (2015_[5])].

← 7. In 2013-22, 83% of firms in Africa formally registered when they started operations in their country, against 87% in Latin America and the Caribbean [authors’ calculation based on (World Bank, 2024_[55])].