The Agricultural Outlook 2019-2028 is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations and input from collaborating member countries to provide an annual assessment of prospects for the coming decade of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets.
The Agricultural Outlook is prepared jointly by the OECD and FAO Secretariats.
At the OECD, the baseline projections and Outlook report were prepared by members of the Trade and Agriculture Directorate: Marcel Adenäuer, Jonathan Brooks (Head of Division), Koen Deconinck, Annelies Deuss, Armelle Elasri (publication co-ordinator), Hubertus Gay (Outlook co-ordinator), Céline Giner, Gaëlle Gouarin, Claude Nenert, Ana-Maria Muresan and Grégoire Tallard of the Agro-Food Trade and Markets Division, and for fish and seafood by James Innes of the Natural Resources Policy Division. Csaba Gaspar and Sophia Gnych of the OECD Seed Schemes provided input for the box on plant breeding innovations. The OECD Secretariat is grateful for the contributions provided by visiting experts Abdi Ali (Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada), Aline Gomes de Almeida Gastardelo (Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply), and Yu Wen (Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences). The partial stochastic modelling builds on work by the Economics of Agriculture Unit of the European Commission's Joint Research Centre; Thomas Chatzopoulos and Ignacio Pérez Domínguez provided a box on extreme climate events. The organisation of meetings and publication preparation were provided by Kelsey Burns, Helen Maguire, and Michèle Patterson. Technical assistance in the preparation of the Outlook database was provided by Karine Lepron, Eric Espinasse and Frano Ilicic. Many other colleagues in the OECD Secretariat and member country delegations provided useful comments on earlier drafts of the report.
At the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the baseline projections and Outlook report were prepared by members of the Trade and Markets Division (EST) under the leadership of Boubaker Ben-Belhassen (EST Division Director) and Josef Schmidhuber (EST Division Deputy Director) with the overall guidance of Máximo Torero (Assistant Director-General, Economic and Social Development Department) and by the Economic and Social Development Department Management team. The core projections team consisted of: Francesca Biasetton, Katia Covarrubias, Sergio René Araujo Enciso, Holger Matthey (Team Leader), Svetlana Mladenovic and Javier Sanchez Alvarez. For fish and seafood, the team consisted of Stefania Vannuccini and Adrienne Egger from the FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department, with technical support from Pierre Charlebois. Advice on fishmeal and fish oil issues was provided by Enrico Bachis from the Marine Ingredients Organisation (IFFO). Insights and support regarding FAOSTAT data was provided by Salar Tayyib, Carola Fabi and Alicia English. Commodity expertise was provided by Abdolreza Abbassian, ElMamoun Amrouk, Thomas Bower, Erin Collier, Jean Luc Mastaki Namegabe, Shirley Mustafa, Adam Prakash, Peter Thoenes, G.A. Upali Wickramasinghe and Di Yang. The box on trade-offs between animal feed and food was provided by Anne Mottet and Alessandra Falcucci, We thank visiting expert Tracy Davids from the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy at the University of Pretoria. Research assistance and database preparation were provided by David Bedford, Julie Claro, Harout Dekermendjian, Annamaria Giusti, Kotomi Honda, Yanyun Li, Lavinia Lucarelli, Emanuele Marocco and Marco Milo. This edition also benefited from comments made by other colleagues from FAO and member country institutions. Araceli Cardenas, Ettore Vecchione, Yongdong Fu, Jessica Mathewson, and Raffaella Rucci provided invaluable assistance with publication and communication issues.
Chapter 2 of the Outlook, “Latin American Agriculture: Prospects and challenges”, was prepared by the Secretariats at FAO and OECD. Drafting was led by Salomón Salcedo Baca. The box on obesity was provided by Céline Giner, Aline Gomes de Almeida Gastardelo and Ana-Maria Muresan from the OECD Secretariat. Sabine Altendorf and Giuseppe Bonavita from the FAO Secretariat prepared the box on bananas and tropical fruits.
Finally, information and feedback provided by the International Cotton Advisory Committee, International Dairy Federation, International Fertilizer Association, International Grains Council, International Sugar Organization, Marine Ingredients Organisation (IFFO) and World Association of Beet and Cane Growers is gratefully acknowledged. The OECD Secretariat also acknowledges input from the International Seed Federation on the box on plant breeding innovation.
The complete Agricultural Outlook, including the fully documented Outlook database that includes historical data and projections, can be accessed through the OECD-FAO joint internet site: www.agri-outlook.org. The published Agricultural Outlook 2019-2028 is available in the OECD’s iLibrary.