Age ratios are a measure of the age structure of the population, and trends and projections of these ratios provide information about the demographic shifts that have characterised OECD countries in the past and that are expected in the future.
OECD populations became older and will continue to become older in the coming decades. In 2020, on average across OECD countries, there were 30 persons aged 65 and over for every 100 persons aged 20 to 64; up from 20% in 1980 (Figure 4.13). Cross-country differences are large, varying from less than 15% in Colombia, Mexico and Türkiye, to 40% in Finland and Italy, and to 55% in Japan. By 2060, the average old-age to working-age ratio is projected to double in the OECD area (to 59%) and to quadruple in Korea. By 2060, the old-age to working-age ratio will reach 82% in Japan and 96% in Korea while remaining below 45% in Israel and Mexico. This increase will exert upward pressure on public spending on health, long-term care, and pensions.
Conversely, the youth- to working-age ratio declined between 1980 and 2020. In 2020, there were 38 persons aged below 20 for every 100 persons aged 20 to 64 on average across OECD countries, down from 64 in 1980 (Figure 4.14). In 2020, the youth to working-age ratio ranged between 25‑30% in Italy and Korea and 60% and over in Israel and Mexico. In most OECD countries, this ratio will stop declining, reaching an average level of 36% in 2060, except in Colombia, Costa Rica, Israel, Mexico and Türkiye. Lower youth to working-age ratios mean lower public spending in education and towards families. But overall, the declines are not large enough to offset higher public spending towards the elderly.
In emerging economies, old-age to working-age ratios are in general lower, and youth to working-age ratios higher than in OECD countries, particularly in India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and South Africa.
Figure 4.15 also presents the past, current, and future shares of youth aged 15 to 29 – the age‑group that enters the labour market – as a percentage of the total population. On average, the share declined from 25% in 1980 to 18% in 2020, with strongest declines in Canada, Korea, Poland and Slovenia. The average ratio is forecast to decline even further to 15% of the total population by 2060, with the strongest declines in countries that will become considerably older in the next decades, like Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico and Korea.
