The Climate Action Monitor 2023

1. How far are countries from achieving national and global mitigation objectives?

The Paris Agreement sets the goal of limiting global warming well-below 2ºC and resolves to pursue further efforts to limit global average temperature rise to 1.5°C. A further target is to achieve net-zero global GHG emissions or worldwide carbon neutrality in the second half of this century (UNFCCC, 2016[1]).1 The basis of the Paris Agreement is a bottom-up approach where countries present commitments in nationally determined contributions (NDCs). NDCs present national GHG emissions targets and climate policies as pledges to progressively mitigate GHG emissions, enhance their adaptive capacity to climate change and, in some cases, address loss and damage caused by extreme climate events.

Drawing on data from the UNFCCC, IEA, and OECD, as well as indicators developed by IPAC, this chapter examines countries’ commitments as well as their GHG emissions trends. The chapter highlights differences across groups of countries, assesses emissions trends based on indicators of emissions intensities, and discusses emissions sources and structural drivers.

The Paris Agreement has been instrumental in increasing climate mitigation ambitions. 196 Parties have communicated their GHG emissions mitigation commitments through NDCs, and, as of September 2023, 105 countries have pledged a net-zero target, with 90 aiming to reach this target by 2050 (https://www.oecd.org/climate-action/ipac/).

The implementation of these pledges has led to lower global GHG emissions than previously projected (UNFCCC, 2023[2]). This is still not enough, however, leaving what is referred to as an “ambition gap”. Full implementation of NDCs presented in 2022 will achieve an estimated 2.4°C average temperature rise by the end of the century considering unconditional and conditional pledges, and a 2.6°C temperature rise considering only unconditional pledges (UNEP, 2022[3]). Moreover, the updated national pledges since COP26 (March 2023) make a negligible difference to predicted 2030 emissions (UNEP, 2022[3]).2

To stay on a path to the 1.5°C goal, global GHG emissions must be limited to 33 Gt CO₂e by 2030 and to 8 Gt CO₂e by 2050 – yet global emissions are projected to reach 58 Gt CO₂e by 2030 based on implemented policies assessed in 2022 (UNEP, 2022[3]).

GHG emission targets

Effective climate action relies on clear GHG emission targets and the operationalisation of a mitigation strategy. Although climate goals need to be delivered globally, in the context of the Paris Agreement framework the targets and measures designed to achieve them are set by governments at the national level.

The Paris Agreement covers 196 countries that together generate about 94% of global GHG emissions.3 In 2020, OECD countries contributed just under a third of global emissions; G20 countries contributed about 70%. Countries covered under IPAC – which include, in addition to OECD and G20 countries, candidates for accession to the OECD, and Malta – generated around 74% of global emissions in 2020.4 As such, tracking the IPAC country grouping, referred to in this report as “the OECD and OECD partner countries” provides a significant barometer of global climate action.

NDCs present mitigation targets using different approaches and scopes, reflecting countries’ common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, as recognised under the Paris Agreement. Targets are often expressed in terms of percentage changes relative to the emissions level in a reference year or in a business-as-usual scenario, which makes a direct comparison of targets difficult across different base years and scenarios. Further, targets are adjusted as countries update their commitments, making it difficult to monitor progress in a harmonised manner and evaluate the implications for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal.

To facilitate the analysis (and comparability) of countries’ mitigation targets, the OECD has developed a methodology translating 2030 NDC mitigation targets into physical amounts of GHG emissions and comparing them with historical emissions levels to express the difference between the target and current emission levels in a harmonised manner (OECD, forthcoming[4]).

The combined estimated unconditional physical GHG emissions targets for 2030 for the OECD and OECD partner countries is 29 900 MtCO₂e, according to NDCs submitted to the UNFCCC by 30 June 2023. This implies an emissions reduction commitment, between 2020 and 2030, of 4 600 MtCO₂e, or about 13%, compared to2020 (and 17% compared to 2019), with OECD countries committing to emissions reductions of 28% and OECD partner countries of 5%.5 6

Complying with the Paris Agreement temperature goal requires reducing global emissions by 43% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels (IPCC, 2023[5]). If used as a benchmark for the OECD and OECD partner countries, this means that, in the aggregate, OECD and OECD partner countries’ national targets fall short of this estimated amount by at least 9 315 MtCO₂e (Figure 2). To fill the “ambition gap”7, these countries would therefore need to reduce their aggregate emission target by about one-third, from 29 900 to 20 585 MtCO₂e. The ambition gap refers to the estimated maximum GHG emissions that can be emitted to achieve 1.5°C median pathway compared to the NDC unconditional target.8

In terms of contribution to global emissions reduction, OECD and OECD partner countries’ commitments for 2030 imply a fall of global emissions of 12.5% compared to 2019, a very modest improvement from the 12% reported in The Climate Action Monitor 2022 (OECD, forthcoming[4]; Climate Watch, 2023[6]).

Nevertheless, estimated trajectories of total global emissions from OECD and OECD partner countries (official estimates are not available) suggest that targets will not be achieved. Current policies are not consistent with achieving these goals – that is, there is an “implementation gap”. In effect, global emissions are expected to increase by more than 10% by 2030 as compared to 2010 levels (UNEP, 2022[3]).9 This implies that global emissions will surpass by about 24 300 MtCO₂e the maximum estimated amount that can be emitted by 2030.

A few countries have committed to GHG emissions targets by 2030 that are higher than their current emissions levels. For example, India, Mexico, Peru, and Türkiye, which together account for 12% of GHG emissions from OECD and OECD partner countries, have committed to targets that imply an increase in GHG emissions compared to 2020 by an amount equivalent to 3% of OECD and OECD partner country emissions. Although it is important to recognise that countries have different development levels and conditions, achieving the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal requires increasing ambition across all countries (Figure 3).

Beyond the 2030 targets, an increasing number of national and sub-national governments have made net‑zero GHG emission pledges.10 As of September 2023, IPAC identified 105 countries that have adopted or proposed net-zero targets, including the European Union, covering around 83% of global GHG emissions.11 However, only 26 countries and the EU,12 representing approximately 16% of global GHG emissions, have enshrined their net-zero targets into law (Figure 4). The rest of the countries have pledged net-zero targets either in their Long-Term Strategies, NDCs, or in speeches in high-level meetings such as the UNFCCC Conferences of the Parties (COPs).13 Legally binding commitments ensure a long‑term commitment to mitigation and the Paris Agreement temperature goal.

Box 2. The ambition and implementation gap

Although countries have increased their mitigation commitments considerably, a discrepancy remains between emissions targets and the emissions reductions necessary to achieve the Paris Agreement temperature goal, this is known as the ambition gap. The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report estimates that an additional reduction of 43% of emissions is necessary between 2019 and 2030 to achieve the Paris Agreement temperature goal. The ambition gap estimates are based on the maximum GHG emissions that can be emitted to achieve a 1.5°C median pathway and on unconditional NDCs.

Moreover, even the emission reduction goals presented in NDCs may not be achieved. That is, the policies in place are insufficient to achieve these targets—the implementation gap. To estimate the implementation gap, it is necessary to assess countries’ emissions trajectories and the effectiveness of different mitigation approaches. The OECD is leading a major initiative to assess policy effectiveness and determine emissions trajectories for participating countries (See https://www.oecd.org/climate-change/inclusive-forum-on-carbon-mitigation-approaches/).

New net-zero pledges in international aviation and shipping

Important global sectoral developments include the 2022 adoption of a net-zero carbon emissions goal for international flights by 2050 by the international aviation industry, and in 2023 a pledge to reach net-zero emissions ‘by or around 2050’ by the international maritime sector.14 15 Both sectors jointly account for roughly 4% to 5% of global GHG emissions, and each account for 2% of global energy-related CO₂ emissions (IEA, 2023[10]).

Member states of the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) revised their GHG targets in 2022 to collectively reduce emissions by at least 20% by 2030 (but striving for 30%) and at least 70% by 2040 (but striving for 80%). Members of the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) revised downwards the emissions baseline of the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) – the major global market-based policy instrument to curb emissions from international aviation – from 100% to 85% of 2019 emissions. As of 2022, 42 OECD and OECD partners participate in CORSIA. These are important steps towards addressing global emissions outside the scope of NDCs and jurisdiction of individual countries. However, GHG emissions from aviation strongly rebounded after the COVID-19 pandemic (Clarke et al., 2022[11]). In fact, 6 July 2023 was the busiest day of commercial aviation ever recorded in history.16

GHG emissions trends

OECD countries’ net GHG emissions (including LULUCF) have been gradually falling since peaking in 2007 (Figure 2). OECD countries’ net emissions fell by 15% between 2007 and 2021, and by 10% since 2010, reaching 13 600 MtCO₂e in 2021. This is partly due to a slowdown in economic activity following the 2008 economic crisis, but also thanks to strengthened climate policies (OECD, 2023[12]).

Progress varies considerably across countries. Between 2010 and 2021, net emissions of large OECD emitters, i.e. the United States, the European Union and Japan decreased by 11%, 15%, and 9% respectively (compared to the previous edition of The Climate Action Monitor, where emissions reductions between 2010 to 2020 were 17%, 20% and 11% respectively).17 However, to achieve their respective emission targets, these emitters would need to further accelerate climate action and reduce emissions from 2021 levels by 42%, 35% and 32% respectively.

Meanwhile, 14 countries have increased their net emissions (including LULUCF) from 2010 to 2020. Emissions in large-emitting countries such as Brazil, the People’s Republic of China (hereafter “China”), Indonesia and India are still rising and have not yet reached their expected peak. Emissions increases in 2020 are estimated at 34% in China and 37% in India compared to the 2010 levels.18 Countries will have to reduce their emissions considerably over the next ten years to achieve the Paris Agreement targets (Figure 5). For data on individual countries see the IPAC Dashboard.

GHG per capita and per unit of GDP emissions intensity

Decoupling emissions from economic and population growth, which is reflected in the relationship between emissions intensity and economic growth trends, is key for long-term mitigation. Total GHG emissions do not take account of countries’ economies or population. Two complementary indicators are used to compare countries’ emissions intensity: energy-related CO₂ emission intensity per capita, and GHG emission intensity per unit of GDP.19

From mid-2000, OECD countries succeeded in reducing energy-related CO₂ emissions per capita to 7.9 tonnes in 2021 (OECD, 2023[8]). By contrast, and although below the OECD, OECD partner countries have steadily increased per capita emissions since early 2000 (Figure 6).

GHG emissions intensity per unit of GDP has experienced a significant decrease since 1990 in both OECD and OECD partner countries. Nevertheless, emissions intensity in OECD partner countries is more than double that of OECD countries (Figure 7).20 If these countries were to reduce the emissions intensity of their economies to OECD levels in 2020, total global emissions would fall by one-fifth.

Consumption- and production-based emissions

In a global economy the full picture of countries’ individual contributions to global warming cannot be assessed without examining the impact of trade patterns on emissions. The impact is shown in the type of products consumed, or more specifically their carbon content. Achieving the Paris Agreement temperature goal, while ensuring long-term economic growth, requires an energy transition that reduces the carbon footprint of both economic production and individual consumption. This is reflected in consumption and production‑based emission indicators.

At the heart of the Paris Agreement are individual country GHG emissions reduction targets and policies. However, the objective is to reduce emissions globally. Countries may comply with their emissions targets but still acquire carbon-intensive products and services from other countries, thereby increasing overall global emissions. OECD country efforts to contribute to global emissions reduction may be ameliorated if emissions are considered from the perspective of final demand.

Since GHG emissions inventories are measured based on national territories and production sources, countries underestimate their total emissions contribution by not considering their demand of goods and services from other countries. One of the reasons that OECD countries have achieved falling GHG emissions’ intensity is that national emissions have been displaced by the increasing consumption of carbon-intensive imports. This implies that most OECD countries are outsourcing their carbon-intensive production through import demand to other countries, thus increasing global GHG emissions indirectly. This type of outsourcing is a form of carbon leakage, which may undermine environmental and climate policies if less carbon-efficient techniques and less stringent environmental standards are used in producing countries. This has generated increased pressure for the implementation of carbon border adjustments, such as the proposed EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (European Comission, 2021[14]).

The overall carbon footprint (demand-based emissions) of OECD countries is higher than emissions from domestic production in the OECD area, and accounts for all carbon emitted anywhere in the world to satisfy final domestic demand.

Both consumption- and production-based emissions in OECD countries peaked in 2007 and have since fallen. However, consumption-based emissions are considerably higher than production-based emissions in OECD countries. Carbon-intensive imports from OECD partner countries partly explain this difference (Figure 8). In contrast, in these countries, production-based emissions are greater than consumption‑based emissions and both have been continuously rising.

Drivers of GHG emissions

Emissions sources

Identifying emissions sources can help design more targeted climate mitigation strategies. Emissions sources vary considerably across countries depending on their level of development, natural conditions such as weather patterns, available resources, and distance to markets, as well as principal economic sectors, energy sources, and land use.

The emissions profile of OECD and OECD partner countries differs slightly, suggesting that different policy approaches may be necessary. Electricity and heat generation contributes around 32% in the case of OECD countries, while for OECD partner countries the contribution is closer to 39%. Similarly, in the case of the transport sector, emissions represent 24% and 18% respectively for OECD and OECD partner countries. (Figure 9 and Figure 10). The main explanation for the relevance of these sectors is their reliance on fossil fuels for electricity. The second most-emitting sectors are agriculture and industrial processes, which in both cases represent around 20% of total emissions.

Although the share of fossil fuels in total energy supply has declined in both OECD and OECD partner countries since 2011, it remains high (Figure 11). OECD countries reduced their share of fossil fuels from 84% to 78% from 1990 to 2020, while globally it has remained almost constant from 81% in 1990 to about 80% in 2021 with a peak of almost 83% in 2011. OECD partner countries, after a peak of 86% in 2012, have marginally decreased their share to 84% in 2021. Further investment in low-carbon energy sources and energy efficiency measures are needed to decarbonise the energy sector.

In the transport sector, emissions in OECD and OECD partner countries have continuously increased from 1990 to 2022 with a brief decline in 2020 due to COVID-19. Road transport contributes more than 70%.21 Reducing emissions from the transport sector requires both reducing the number of passenger cars as well as the use of vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICE). Globally, the number of passenger car sales remains high, with over 75 million units sold in 2022. The share of electric vehicles (EV) is increasing, representing more than 14% of the total passenger car sales in 2022 (Figure 12).

Land use change and forestry (LUCF) has been a net global emitter, albeit with considerable regional differences.22 In 2020, LUCF represented around 3% of global GHG emissions (excluding LUCF) but has large variations across countries (Climate Watch, 2023[6]). These emissions are driven mainly by deforestation, land use change (such as conversion of natural land into agricultural land or built-up areas) and unsustainable management practices. Achieving net-zero targets and other environmental objectives such as biodiversity protection requires tackling deforestation in resource-rich countries (Figure 13).

Although energy consumption, transport and deforestation are the main global sources of GHG emissions, their individual contribution varies considerably across countries. Therefore, different priorities and approaches will be necessary to achieve mitigation objectives in individual countries. This implies that countries do not necessarily need to prioritise the sectors that are global drivers or reduce emissions equally in all sectors to achieve their climate targets; rather, policy choices must be consistent with countries' specific conditions (Figure 14). As is further discussed in Chapter 3, there are general trends and common drivers, but no one-size-fits-all policy for all countries.

Other GHG emissions drivers

Reducing GHG emissions by focussing on individual emissions sources is not enough, since efficiency gains and progress in decoupling emissions from production activities are often outweighed by economic and population growth. In the long run, mitigation and human welfare will depend on reducing material and energy demand in all sectors. Most OECD countries have managed to decouple GHG emissions from GDP growth. On average, GDP per capita increased by 44% from 1990 to 2020, while GHG emissions per capita fell by 27% in the same period (Figure 15). OECD partner countries have achieved relative decoupling where GDP per capita has increased by 215% between 1990 and 2020, although still below the OECD average per capita in 2020, coupled with an increase of emissions by 60% during the same period (Figure 16).

Sustainable economic growth requires ensuring that countries continue to increase GDP while reducing GHG emissions progressively. However, further gains in energy efficiency alone will not be sufficient to put OECD partner countries on a path to reaching net-zero targets overall. Advancing towards the energy transition is critical to achieve their mitigation objectives (OECD, 2023[9]).

Reducing material consumption and improving the circularity of material use is necessary to reduce GHG emissions. Material extraction is projected to surpass 111 Gt in 2030 and 167 Gt in 2060 with business‑as‑usual almost doubling from 89 Gt in 2017 (OECD, 2019[16]). Between COP21 and COP26, over half a trillion tonnes of virgin materials were consumed. Rising material extraction means that more than 90% of materials are either wasted, lost or remain unavailable for reuse for years as they are locked into long-lasting stock such as buildings and machinery (Circle Economy, 2023[17]). To advance toward the Paris Agreement targets, it is essential to develop a more circular economy by reducing the material footprint where GHG emissions are ultimately embedded.

Notes

← 1.  The explicit commitment is a “balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the second half of this century”. Countries have interpreted this to establish net zero targets by 2050.

← 2.  Numbers will be updated in line with the forthcoming 2023 edition of the UNEP Emissions Gap Report.

← 3.  There are 198 parties to the UNFCCC, 196 signed the Paris Agreement, out of which all signatories but Côte d’Ivoire submitted their Nationally Determined Contributions.

← 4.  OECD Secretariat estimates use 2020 Climate Watch data. Physical emissions data presented in the text is from the OECD unless stated otherwise.

← 5.  OECD and OECD partner countries updated NDC targets presented up to 30 June 2023 commit to an additional GHG emission reduction of 900 MtCO₂e for 2030 compared to targets submitted to the UNFCCC up to August 2022 (360 MtCO₂e in OECD countries and 540 MtCO₂e in OECD partner countries, reducing their 2030 estimated emissions by 4% and 3%, respectively), mostly due to the increased ambition of India, Mexico, and Türkiye. In its updated 2022 NDC submission to the UNFCCC, India increased its ambition to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 45% by 2030, from 2005 levels, which is higher than the previous 33-35%. Mexico committed to reducing its emissions by 35-51% instead of 22% in its updated NDC in 2022; and Türkiye’s emission reduction target increased from the aim of reducing by up to 21% from the BAU to 41% from the BAU in its updated NDC in 2023. Other countries also increased their ambition: Indonesia increased its target from 29% to 32% in its updated NDC in 2022, and Norway committed to a 55% reduction in emissions instead of reductions between 50% and 55% in its updated NDC in 2022.

← 6.  GHG emissions inventories are compiled following territory and production-based emission principles. This means that in most countries’ cases, total GHG emission does not include emissions from international transport. In addition, emissions from consumption of products produced in other territories or emissions from transporting these products are not included.

← 7.  The ambition gap refers to the difference between the necessary GHG emissions to achieve the 1.5°C and the NDC target.

← 8.  Note that the estimate of 43% emissions reduction refers to global GHG emissions reductions, it does not imply that individual countries should reduce this amount. For this reason, this document has only estimated the ambition gap for aggregate emissions for all covered countries.

← 9.  UNEP projected emissions consider currently implemented policies.

← 10.  Net-zero emission is defined as a balance between anthropogenic GHG emissions and removals by LULUCF. However, different terminologies are used in policy documents and other sources to refer to a long-term strategy of balanced emissions and removals. Some of these terms are carbon neutral and zero carbon. The definitions of these terms are not always clear and consistent.

← 11.  Percentages calculated using data from Climate Watch (Climate Watch, 2022[152]).

← 12.  Australia, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Denmark, EU (27), Fiji, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Japan, South Korea, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Maldives, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.

← 13.  There are differences with other databases that also aim to identify the number of countries that have pledged for net-zero targets. One of these is a non-official database by the IEA, which presents differences with respect to some countries, in particular Brunei, Comoros, Cook Islands, Croatia, Ghana, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Liechtenstein, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Tunisia, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, Vatican City (which IEA does not cover) and Mauritius and Morocco (which IPAC does not cover).

← 14.  ​IMO (2023), “Revised GHG reduction strategy for global shipping adopted”, International Maritime Organization, https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/PressBriefings/pages/Revised-GHG-reduction-strategy-for-global-shipping-adopted-.aspx.

← 15.  Often countries’ NDC targets do not cover international transport. Thus, these targets strengthen the commitments communicated through NDCs.

← 16.  Flightradar24 (2023), Twitter, https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1677361887812493329.

← 17.  Percentage changes are calculated using (OECD, 2023[7]).

← 18.  Data is provided by Climate Watch. Physical emissions data presented in the text is from the OECD unless otherwise stated.

← 19.  Although focussed on CO₂ emissions from energy, the former provides a measure of emissions intensity relative to total population; while the latter, focussing on GHG emissions, provides a measure of the decarbonisation of the economy. Both measures provide insights into the relative emissions contribution of a country and its long-term emissions path.

← 20.  Data is provided by Climate Watch. Physical emissions data presented in the text is from OECD unless otherwise stated.

← 21.  IEA, Global CO₂ emissions from transport by sub-sector in the Net Zero Scenario, 2000-2030, IEA, Paris,https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/global-co2-emissions-from-transport-by-sub-sector-in-the-net-zero-scenario-2000-2030-2 , IEA. Licence: CC BY 4.0.

← 22.  This subsection considers only LUCF and not LULUCF because of global estimated data availability.