OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2020 Issue 2

France

Activity is projected to fall by 9.1% in 2020 and expand by 6% in 2021 and 3.3% in 2022. After a second national lockdown at the end of 2020, the sanitary situation is assumed to improve only slowly. Despite sporadic local virus outbreaks, the easing of containment measures and the prospective rollout of an effective vaccine would still allow for a gradual reduction in precautionary saving and, eventually, a catch‑up in the most affected sectors (tourism and leisure services). As export markets recover, external demand and investment will pick up. The unemployment rate will peak around end-2021 and remain above its pre‑crisis level in 2022. By the end of 2022, public debt is expected to increase to 120% of GDP.

Temporary emergency measures and the medium-term recovery plan provide strong fiscal support, balancing measures on the supply and demand sides. The gradual phasing-out of short-time work schemes and loan programmes for firms will encourage the reallocation of resources across firms. To ensure a gradual recovery, the government should continue to target new support measures to firms directly impacted by temporary national and local restrictions. Prioritising and speeding up testing capacities would also help in identifying and isolating infected people more rapidly, helping to control the epidemic and boost economic activity.

Increasing infections led to a new lockdown

After a significant slowdown of the epidemic owing to the first nationwide lockdown, COVID‑19 infections and the number of persons in intensive care increased significantly between mid-July and early November. Despite tightened sanitary regulations, such as the mandatory wearing of masks in indoor spaces, most French regions had been officially classified as highly vulnerable to the epidemic as of end-October. The renewed virus outbreak has put testing capacities in large cities, where it is most important to identify cases rapidly, under severe strains and increased bottleneck risks for the healthcare system. In September, the authorities imposed local closures of bars and restaurants and tightened rules on public gatherings in cities where infections had become problematic. They further applied curfews for non-essential activities in high-infection metropolitan areas and for most regions in mid-October and a second national lockdown two weeks later. With COVID-19 infections decreasing significantly, the authorities announced a progressive easing of the lockdown and most shops reopened at the end of November.

France: Recovery and sanitary restrictions

Source: OECD Economic Outlook 108 database; and INSEE.

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France: Demand, output and prices

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France: Unemployment and saving

Source: OECD Economic Outlook 108 database.

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The resurgence of the pandemic has halted the recovery

The recovery has been highly uneven and progress has partly reversed. After the sudden initial economic stop, goods consumption, the construction sector, non-market and high-tech services as well as most manufacturing industries all recovered quickly in May and June. According to the French Statistical Institute (INSEE), economic activity in October rebounded to 4% below its end-2019 level from a decline of 31% in April. Yet, it is estimated to be 13% below its end-2019 level in November, as the sanitary situation continued to curb the demand for tourism, accommodation and transport services, and renewed restrictions sharply cut activity in those sectors. Business sentiment has worsened and the high level of delayed social contributions payments point to significant liquidity constraints for firms. The unemployment rate increased to 9% in the third quarter of 2020, and the employment rates of younger and low-skilled workers have been disproportionately affected. The rebound of new hires on temporary contracts has lost momentum and the decline in the take-up of the short‑time work scheme appears to have stopped in November.

Policy responses are extensive

The authorities have taken comprehensive measures to head off macroeconomic destabilisation and support the ongoing recovery. Discretionary budgetary measures will reach about 3.9% of GDP in 2020, notably through the strengthened short-time work scheme and support for the smallest firms and the self‑employed. The government also announced a EUR 100 billion medium-term recovery plan, France Relance, with fiscal measures that are set to reach 1.6% of GDP in 2021 and 1.1% in 2022. The EUR 10 billion business tax cut, hiring and car subsidies, and higher public investment, as well as additional financing for training programmes, will provide broad support for the recovery over the coming two years. Renewed emergency measures and the already planned housing and corporate income tax cuts, as well as higher financing for the health sector, will also partly damp the negative impact of the crisis on household incomes and business profit margins.

The European Central Bank’s accommodative monetary policy and expanded asset purchases will continue to support aggregate demand. The Next Generation EU plan will help finance 2021-22 fiscal measures in France (France is set to receive EUR 40 billion of European grants) and in its main trading partners, thereby boosting domestic and external demand. The French authorities have also prolonged to 2021 emergency measures for badly hit sectors and firms to alleviate corporate costs, notably through tax holidays and high public coverage of the wages under short-time work agreements, and to support firm financing (via public guarantees of loans and quasi-equity long-term loans). At the same time, in most sectors, the increased cost sharing of the short-time work schemes and additional funding for training will encourage resource reallocation.

The outlook is highly uncertain

Economic activity is set to decline by 9.1% in 2020 and is projected to reach its pre-crisis level around the end of 2022. Some sectors – such as transport and hospitality, which represent around 9% of GDP – will be durably affected by the pandemic. After a weak end to 2020, the assumed slow improvements of sanitary conditions and the prospective rollout of an effective vaccine will support consumption and housing investment, with households drawing on their high savings. Yet, targeted restrictions in services sectors requiring close physical interaction will remain in the first part of 2021. High unemployment and the slow labour market recovery will keep hurting poorer and more precarious households. As demand in trading partners gains ground, exports will catch up gradually from their historically low levels. Business investment will recover only slowly, reflecting reduced profit margins and persistent uncertainty. The budget deficit and the public debt-to-GDP ratio are projected to remain at high levels, with the latter (Maastricht definition) reaching 120% of GDP in 2022.

Passenger transport, tourism and cultural activities will bear enduring scars. Demand for such services has decreased and, in addition, their opening remains only partial and highly dependent on local restrictions until the epidemic ends. Furthermore, businesses have built up sizeable debt, notably through government loan guarantees. As a result, some will face liquidity and solvency concerns, which could precipitate large-scale firm bankruptcies and dent economic prospects. A slower recovery of the main trading partners in the euro area would also delay the recovery in France. On the upside, high pent‑up domestic demand, a swift use of European recovery funds and a faster-than-projected recovery in the tourism sector would raise growth.

Strengthening the recovery

The French recovery plan is set to provide well-balanced fiscal support and the current flexible approach of adapting policies to the evolution of the pandemic should be maintained. The priority is to develop healthcare further and refine testing capacities to ensure that the strategy of mass testing, isolation and local restrictions is successful. While the widespread testing is welcome, such a policy can only be efficient if results are known rapidly. Fast-track testing and giving a gate-keeping role to general practitioners to screen those who need test results urgently, as is done in Germany, could help achieve this. Specific emergency measures should also continue to target viable firms affected by renewed local restrictions or temporarily depressed demand. Allowing an efficient reallocation of workers in the aftermath of the crisis is another key challenge, as gross corporate debt has soared and unemployment and bankruptcies are set to rise. The increased targeting of the short-time work schemes is welcome, but ensuring broad access to lifelong learning for low‑skilled and long-term unemployed workers, as well as an efficient implementation of quality standards for these programmes, is needed. Reviewing collective restructuring procedures and speeding up court processes would ease the required adjustments. Strengthening innovation and management training initiatives for small firms, and providing them with extended hiring support programmes, would raise economic activity by facilitating the adoption of new technologies and removing barriers to firm growth.