In January 2023, the European Commission and the European Union Member countries began implementing the new Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) 2023-27. The new CAP entails a new delivery model in which Member States play a critical role in determining and implementing their CAP strategic plans (CSPs). The CAP 2023-27 is also expected to deliver on broader food systems objectives, such as delivering on long-term food security and responding to climate change and ensuring the sustainability of natural resources. To this end, valuable lessons can be learnt from the previous CAP 2014-22 and from experimenting and innovating during the 2023-27 period. The following assessment refers to regulations, programmes and policies implemented up to 2022. While recognising that the CAP 2023-27 includes many changes that have the potential to address shortcomings observed in past CAP cycles, given the scale of the challenges, it is useful to both focus on what can be learnt from experience to date and what further actions need to be taken to ensure that the CAP is able to deliver a more innovative, productive and sustainable agricultural sector in the future.
New demands for environmental sustainability are emerging from a broader food systems approach…
The CAP represents about one-third of the EU budget and is expected to deliver on broad food systems objectives that go beyond the agricultural sector’s boundaries. The EU agro-food sector ensures the food security of its population while also contributing to global food security. At the same time, the sector is strategic for the European Union’s green transition agenda due to its environmental impacts and resource implications. The public expects EU food systems to respond to the triple challenge of providing healthy, safe and nutritious food while providing livelihoods for farmers and other actors in the food chain and improving environmental sustainability (i.e. preserving land, water and biodiversity resources, and reducing greenhouse gas [GHG] emissions).
The European Union has expanded to become a diverse group of countries with different levels of economic development, more varied types of land use and different approaches to agricultural production. The European Union has also strengthened its leading position in global agro-food trade, becoming the world’s largest agro-food exporter and one of its largest importers, with agro-food products accounting for 9.3% of all exports and 6.8% of all imports.
The European Union’s competitiveness in world food markets has been largely driven by agricultural productivity growth. For a long time, productivity gains were achieved through agricultural intensification, with significant negative environmental consequences, such as increasing GHG emissions, loss of biodiversity on farmland, and damage to air and water quality. The Farm to Fork (F2F) and Biodiversity Strategies are part of the European Green Deal (EGD), which proposes a food systems approach to reduce agriculture’s impact on the environment and foster the transition towards healthier, more sustainable and fairer food systems.
...while systemic uncertainties call for adaptability and resilience to different crises
When the EGD was launched in December 2019, nobody imagined that the COVID-19 pandemic, nor Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine in February 2022, would occur. Both these crises have elevated food security issues back to the top of the global and EU political agendas, while rising food and energy prices have challenged the vision of an ambitious green transition of the EU agro-food system. This, and the current high price for fossil energy and chemical fertilisers, are not only a challenge, but could also be an opportunity to transform the European agro-food system, benefiting as well from the opportunities created by the digital economy.
While the EU agro-food system has demonstrated its resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic and now Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, the European Union has addressed current global food security concerns by temporarily relaxing or removing some environmental restrictions to increase production. Since the recent crisis is primarily characterised by a decrease of purchasing power rather than a reduction in food availability, this resilience may not be durable if the sector does not improve its environmental sustainability.
The green transition of EU food systems calls for a transformation where innovation plays a critical role in delivering sustainable productivity growth. Such a transformation must include a transition towards more balanced and diversified diets, but also broader involvement of the other agro-food actors, with new retailing and processing patterns, new business models, as well as new spatial configurations of supply chains where farmers will have to anticipate and possibly lead this process.
Productivity is growing, but slower than in other countries, and has recently decelerated in all but the new Member States
A sustainable path of productivity growth is key to achieving the F2F and Biodiversity Strategies objectives. Unlike intensification of the use of inputs that could harm the environment, sustainable productivity growth can reconcile the apparently conflicting demands of increasing food production and environment sustainability. Improving technology, practices and the efficiency of input use, or total factor productivity (TFP) growth, would make it possible to produce more food with fewer inputs.
Over the last 60 years, EU agriculture has transitioned from a growth model based on intensification (use of more inputs) to one driven by productivity growth, thanks to technological improvements and efficiency gains. This has allowed the volume of production to expand. However, long-term output growth has been weaker in the European Union than in other OECD countries and the global average, while TFP growth has been mild. Most of the gains in TFP in the European Union have been related to reductions in agricultural labour due to increased labour productivity, while capital investments played a lesser role in output growth compared to other countries, such as the United States. Overall, the European Union has not succeeded in decoupling output growth from the use of variable inputs, which is critical in view of the F2F targets to reduce the absolute level of input use.
Different types of structural change and contrasting policies have led to significant variations in productivity performance between those Member States that were EU Members prior to 2000 (EU14) and the newer EU Member States (EU13). Up to 2010, the productivity growth of the EU14 remained well above that achieved in the EU13, but this trend was reversed during the last decade, and new Member States have led EU gains in productivity. Decreases in the labour force have been steady over the last six decades in the EU14, but the decline in the EU13 only started in the last two decades, when newer Member States experienced a significant and rapid increase in capital investments.
Productivity growth has not always been associated with improved sustainability
EU agricultural policies increasingly aim to improve the sustainable management of natural resources and contribute to climate action to ensure the long‑term sustainability and potential of EU agro-food systems. However, productivity growth has not always been associated with improved sustainability performance, especially in terms of reversing biodiversity decline and reducing GHG emissions.
Several factors have contributed to a decrease in biodiversity. According to the available evidence, the quality and health of EU agricultural landscapes and farmland biodiversity are declining. Growing urban areas and other competing demands for land use have led to a reduction in agricultural land. Pastureland has decreased, and agricultural fields have become more homogenous and, on average, farmed more intensively.
Direct GHG emissions from agriculture have remained stable over the last decade. While over the first decade of the 21st century the reduction of livestock numbers and a more efficient use of fertilisers led to a consistent decrease in direct GHG emissions from EU agriculture, more recent data indicate a flat rather than a declining trend in GHG emissions. Nevertheless, GHG emissions have grown at a slower rate than the value of total output, indicating that the European Union has reduced emissions intensity and has successfully achieved a partial decoupling of GHG emissions from production.
Other environmental and resource challenges are growing in parts of the European Union, particularly in the case of water. Agriculture remains a major user of water and a source of pollution in many regions of the European Union, contributing to the unsatisfactory status of many water bodies in view of the objectives of the EU Water Framework Directive. At the same time, climate change is affecting agricultural productivity with new weather patterns that reduce the availability of water for agriculture in many countries. In addition, the negative effects of extreme weather events and animal and plant diseases have increased in most countries, and are expected to continue into the future.
At the EU level, several agri-environmental trends are still progressing. While nutrient surplus continues to be problematic in many regions, over the last 20 years, the European Union has reduced its nutrient balance per hectare while the total agricultural output has grown, leading to the absolute decoupling of nutrient balances from production.
The EU agricultural sector is undergoing structural change but must address generational renewal, gender bias and labour issues
The future capacity of the EU agro-food sector to combine productivity, sustainability and resilience performance will be influenced by recent and ongoing structural changes. The number of farms has been declining over time, while both the physical and economic size of farms have been increasing. This adjustment could be an important driver for productivity objectives but also for the adoption of technology and innovation aimed at increasing farm resilience and sustainability. In 2020, there were about 5.1 million fewer farms in the European Union than in 2005, a 36% decrease, while the agricultural area decreased only by 6.3% over the same period. The bulk of the reduction in farm numbers corresponds to holdings smaller than 5 hectares, while the number of farms larger than 100 hectares has increased. Agricultural labour and the share of the EU working population employed in agriculture has also dropped, while the average agricultural income per full-time employee has increased. Less than 10% of EU farms manage more than half of all agricultural land and therefore play a key role in the overall environmental performance of the sector.
Without generational renewal, the achievement of relevant social, economic and environmental objectives that are at the core of current EU agricultural policies are at risk. Young farmers are crucial for viable, productive and innovative agriculture, but the proportion of young farmers has been decreasing over time. The problem of generational renewal goes well beyond the farming sector, and may potentially have negative long-term effects on, for example, land abandonment and rural viability. Access to land, and the corresponding payment rights, as well as to credit, are the main obstacles to setting up a business in the farming sector.
Women are underrepresented in the EU farming sector. Gender bias is a structural characteristic of agriculture in almost all EU Member countries. The CAP has few policy levers to change this and the efforts of some Members countries ‒ e.g. Spanish Law on Shared Ownership ‒ have not resulted in any significant change. Gender issues in agriculture deserve policy makers’ attention, as diversity has been shown to improve resilience and adaptability.
Migrant workers are an increasingly important part of the EU farming sector. The outflow of local labour has been partially compensated by inflows of foreign labour, including undocumented workers whose numbers are difficult to quantify. These undocumented workers are often poorly treated, and many are confronted with detrimental working and living conditions. The consideration of socio‑economic conditions and the assurance of social rights compliance, particularly for migrant workers, is therefore essential for the sustainability of the EU farming sector.