Sustainability and resilience are essential objectives of high performing health systems. Sustainability revolves around the responsible management of resources (financial and others), ensuring that healthcare services can be consistently delivered over the long term without depleting essential assets or undermining future generations. Resilience, on the other hand, focuses on a system’s ability to withstand and rebound from disruptive events. By bolstering resilience, a health system not only safeguards the sustainability of its activities over time but also enhances its adaptive capacity and ability to maintain high-quality care in the face of unexpected challenges. Together, these two principles create a dynamic equilibrium that underpins a health system’s ability to ensure the health and well-being of its population in both routine and extraordinary circumstances.
In the past two decades, public health spending has consistently grown faster than the GDP in all OECD countries. Although this increased spending has led to improvements in health outcomes, there are apprehensions about the sustainability of this upward trajectory. Without effective measures to control costs, OECD forecasts indicate that public expenditures on healthcare and long-term care are projected to approach nearly 9% of GDP by 2030 and could even reach as high as 14% by 2060.
The OECD defines fiscal sustainability as the ability of a government to maintain public finances at a credible and serviceable position over the long term (OECD, 2015[17]). Fiscal sustainability implies governments are able to maintain policies and expenditure into the future, without major adjustments and excessive debt burdens for future generations. The term refers to overall government spending, revenues, assets and liabilities that reflect past commitments and adapt to future trends such as socio‑economic trends and environmental factors. In the context of the healthcare sector, fiscal sustainability should be viewed as a general constraint rather than a goal on itself. This suggests that the methods employed by governments to attain fiscal sustainability are crucial, as it should not merely involve indiscriminate cost-cutting measures. For instance, raising user fees for healthcare services might appear as a straightforward means to reduce budget deficits, but it can undermine health system objectives related to financial protection and improved health outcomes. A more effective approach would involve for instance eliminating interventions that are not cost-effective.
Possible indicators of fiscal sustainability include:
Average annual growth rate of real public health spending and GDP per capita;
Public health spending as a share of GDP;
Projected public expenditure on health and long-term care as a percentage of GDP;
Health spending as a share of total government spending;
Revenue sources for funding government health expenditures;
Relative share of public and private spending.
Yet, the concept of sustainability in health systems extends beyond fiscal considerations and encompasses several additional dimensions. One important aspect is the need for a long-term strategic perspective and innovativeness, which connects with the governance dimension (Fischer, 2014[57]). Sustainable health systems require shifting from incremental decision-making to long-term planning based on strategic analysis. This involves setting clear, long-term goals and implementing lasting reforms that balance social and financial imperatives while fostering open discussions about trade‑offs in society. Another dimension is the institutionalisation of environmental concerns within health systems. Sustainability in healthcare recognises the ecological environment as a critical factor, emphasising the need to minimise the negative impact of resource consumption (see earlier section on environment and health dimension).
Resilience is understood as the ability of systems to prepare for, absorb, recover from and adapt to major shocks (OECD, 2020[9]). It is not simply about minimising risk and avoiding shocks: resilience is also about recognising that shocks will happen. Such shocks are defined as high-consequence events that have a major disruptive effect on society. This concept touches on almost all elements of health systems design, policy, process, outcomes and impacts. The COVID‑19 pandemic revealed weaknesses in health systems and in how they respond to shocks, highlighting the need to improve their resilience. Health systems need to prepare better for shocks – not only pandemics but also antimicrobial resistance; armed conflict; climate change; biological, chemical, cyber, financial and nuclear threats; natural and environmental disasters; and social unrest. Health systems also need to be able to absorb such disruptions, to recover as quickly as possible and with minimal cost, and to adapt by learning lessons to improve performance and manage future risks. Rather than relying solely on planning for, avoiding and absorbing shocks, a resilience approach acknowledges that some shocks will be of a size and scale that will disrupt an entire health system. In this scenario, it is important that the health system is capable of recovering and adapting for the future.
Assessing the resilience domain requires indicators to cover the entire shock cycle and to capture the dynamic nature of resilience – how a health system performs before, during and after a shock. This is clear in applications of resilience assessment and testing that is conducted in other sectors, such as financial and banking services (Baudino et al., 2018[58]), or electricity utilities (DeMenno, Broderick and Jeffers, 2022[59]). What is common across such methods is that it views the resilience of systems as a dynamic characteristic that is based on the response to simulated stress. This assessment is challenging as performance during a shock depends not only on the available resources but also on a rapid and co‑ordinated response that may extend beyond the health system (Fleming et al., 2022[60]).
The inclusion of resilience as a cross-cutting dimension in the proposed revision of the OECD Health System Performance Assessment Framework is a reflection of the need to ensure that it maintains policy-relevance in the current context. This considers not only the lessons of the major shock of the COVID‑19 pandemic, but also other ongoing threats such as the rapidly escalating effects of climate change and its consequences in societies and health systems.
Table 3.14 includes a sample of indicators that have been used to infer health system resilience across several areas of the OECD Health System Performance Assessment Framework. A more thorough assessment of resilience will require that these indicators are further refined, and expanded to better reflect dynamic aspects of health systems (e.g. the ability to rapidly increase health workforce, redeploy them across the territory, or even retrain them to face new challenges).
The incorporation of resilience as a cross-cutting analytical in the Framework also highlights the importance of the issues of timeliness and disaggregation of data. The pandemic provided a clear example of the need for real-time data, and yet timeliness of the indicators is still a constraint, with most indicators being available for year t‑2 and only a few being available for year t‑1. Regional disaggregation of indicators within countries, as well as disaggregation of data by gender (the gender equality perspective discussed above), income, education or other areas of socio‑economic status, as well as ethnicity and migrant status is the exception, rather than the norm for most indicators, and yet these are also key for analysis of resilience.