Today's unprecedented use of Earth’s orbits coincides with increasingly unsustainable levels of space debris. Too much debris in orbit could disrupt the use of space as we know it, which would affect today’s critical government services and infrastructures, as well as burgeoning private activity. This chapter provides the overall background on the issues of space debris and space sustainability and introduces the OECD project on the economics of space sustainability and its many contributors.
The Economics of Space Sustainability
Delivering Economic Evidence to Guide Government Action
1. Space sustainability at the OECD
Abstract
Introduction
Today's unprecedented use of Earth’s orbits coincides with increasingly unsustainable levels of space debris. Space debris already pose a direct collision risk to operational satellites and other spacecraft such as the International and Chinese space stations. This risk is expected to grow in the future, with planned projects numbering hundreds of thousands of satellites.
The ultimate threat is that debris density reaches such levels that it could disrupt the use of space as we know it, with impacts on the functioning of critical government services and infrastructures, such as communications and transportation, that increasingly rely on space assets. It would also strongly affect commercial activity, a key source of growth in the sector.
As a useful complement to other efforts at the international level, the OECD Space Forum launched a project in 2019 on the economics of space sustainability. The objective was to explore specific economic aspects, such as the current and future costs generated by space debris and the value of space infrastructure at risk. In the past five years considerable progress has been made on the topic. This publication presents the latest findings.
This first chapter provides background on the issues of space debris, space sustainability and the OECD project, also introducing the academic contributions to the project that constitute the bulk of this publication.
Growing concerns about the state of the orbital environment
Figure 1.1. Number of tracked objects in Earth’s orbits by object type
Historical increase of the catalogued objects based on data available on 3 February 2024
Notes: This chart displays a summary of all objects in Earth orbit officially catalogued by the US Space Surveillance Network. “Fragmentation debris” includes satellite breakup debris and anomalous event debris, while “mission-related debris” includes all objects dispensed, separated or released as part of the planned mission.
Source: NASA (2024[1]), “Monthly total of objects in orbit by object type”, as of 3 February 2024.
There has been a notable jump in the number of space debris objects since 2007, as demonstrated in Figure 1.1, which shows the total number of satellites and different types of debris in space as tracked by the US Space Force. This debris growth can largely be attributed to two specific events: one anti-satellite test conducted by the People’s Republic of China [hereafter ‘China’] in 2007 and a collision in 2009 between two communications satellites, one operational, one defunct.
The accelerated launch activity to the low-earth orbit since 2019 is leading to an unprecedented number of new human-made objects in the space environment. In early 2024, there were some 9 500 active satellites in orbit (McDowell, 2024[2]).
The increased density of objects on orbits increases the risk of collisions: between active (operational) satellites; between active satellites and debris; and, most importantly, between debris objects themselves. The longer-term key concern associated with space debris is a self-generating chain reaction of collisions between debris objects referred to as Kessler’s Syndrome (Kessler and Cour-Palais, 1978[3]), which could effectively disrupt the access to and use of orbits of high socio-economic value (Adilov, Alexander and Cunningham, 2018[4]; Undseth, Jolly and Olivari, 2020[5]). Mathematical models of the space environment indicate that the orbital debris population is already growing of its own accord in certain regions, albeit slowly (ESA, 2023[6]).
According to data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Orbital Debris Program, debris resulting from intentional or accidental break-ups account for some 47% of the current tracked debris population. This is followed by defunct spacecraft (34%), mission-related debris and rocket bodies (both 8%) (Anz-Meador, Opiela and Liou, 2022[7]). It is important to note that most catalogued debris objects can be attributed to the limited number of government actors launching objects into space before 2000. The vast majority of the more than 15 000 debris objects catalogued and tracked by the US Space Force can be attributed to the Russian Federation [hereafter ‘Russia’] (35% of currently tracked debris objects), the United States (32%) and China (28%) (US Space Force, 2024[8]) (Figure 1.2). Russia also dominates the count of “high-risk” objects with a potential for generating a lot of additional debris, combining several high-mass risk factors such as very large rocket bodies, orbit, inclination, etc. (McKnight et al., 2021[9]).
Figure 1.2. A few actors are responsible for most catalogued space debris objects
Counts of catalogued rocket bodies and orbital debris objects, as of 22 February 2024
Source: US Space Force (2024[8]), Space-track website, https://www.space-track.org/#launchData, data accessed 22 February.
Another important point is that tracked debris objects account for only about 4% of the estimated harmful debris population (greater than 1 cm), with the total estimated debris population surpassing 100 million objects (ESA, 2024[10]), as shown in Table 1.1. This could skew perceptions of risks among space system operators, insurers and investors, creating a false sense of security and artificially lowering the costs of operating safely in the orbital environment.
Today, many of these debris objects result from a lack of end-of-life strategies, e.g. no passivation (removal of stored energy such as unused propellant or batteries) or post-mission disposal. Urgent implementation of more stringent mitigation and remediation measures to all missions, particularly in LEO, is necessary to avoid an exponential acceleration in the number of debris objects in orbit.
Table 1.1. Space debris by the numbers
1. Data as of 6 December 2023, 2. Estimation based on statistical model MASTER-8, future population 2021.
Source: ESA (2024[10]), “Space debris by the numbers”, https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Space_Debris/Space_debris_by_the_numbers.
Increasing international awareness about space sustainability
Calls for government action and regulation to limit the risks associated with space debris are multiplying due in part to an improved understanding of the importance of space-based infrastructure and assets to society (OECD, 2023[11]). Over recent decades, international organisations and bodies (e.g. the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee), national administrations and space agencies have carried out extensive work on space debris mitigation and the sustainability of space activities (as defined in Box 1.1). This work has mainly concentrated on the technical aspects of space debris and specific guidelines for the most congested regions in the low-earth orbits and the geostationary orbit.
Box 1.1. What is “space sustainability”?
In 2019, the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UN COPUOS) reached an international agreement on guidelines for the “long-term sustainability of outer space activities”, that would ensure:
“[…] the ability to maintain the conduct of space activities indefinitely into the future in a manner that realises the objectives of equitable access to the benefits of the exploration and use of outer space for peaceful purposes, in order to meet the needs of the present generations while preserving the outer space environment for future generations.”
This agreement reflects increased awareness about the negative externalities associated with activities in space and particularly of the unrestricted use of certain orbits of value for activities on Earth. To fully capture these effects both on Earth and in space, the term “earth-space sustainability” is sometimes used (Yap and Truffer, 2022[12]).
While space debris is considered the most urgent challenge, it is worth noting that there are also other dimensions to environmental space sustainability, such as the management of space traffic, the allocation and use of the electromagnetic spectrum, the brightening of the night sky, the environmental terrestrial and atmospheric impacts of space activities, etc. These issues will become increasingly important as the space economy grows both in scale and in scope.
Sources: UN COPUOS (2018[13]) Guidelines for the Long-term Sustainability of Outer Space and OECD (2022[14]) Earth’s Orbits at Risk: The Economics of Space Sustainability, https://doi.org/10.1787/16543990-en.
Governments also need other types of evidence to make informed decisions on space debris mitigation or alleviation with effective outcomes. First, in order to identify the overall risks generated by space debris in the short-, medium- and long term, decision makers need to know which orbits and activities are directly and/or indirectly exposed to space debris; the probabilities of different space debris-related events occurring (ranging from collisions with very small objects to a dramatically worsened space environment); and the estimated socio-economic impacts of such events. Second, more evidence is needed on the effects of different policy options to mitigate space debris, including an ability to “test” such effects ex ante, e.g. modelling the effects of reducing post-mission disposal guidelines from 25 to 5 years after mission completion), their potential effectiveness, as well as feasibility of implementation and success. These are points that the OECD tries to address.
The OECD project on the economics of space sustainability
The OECD Space Forum, within the OECD Directorate for Science, Technology and Innovation, sits at the intersection between the space sector, science and technology policy and economic and industrial policy and is uniquely placed to address this multidimensional issue of space sustainability. On the initiative of several of its Steering Group members, the OECD Space Forum launched a project on space sustainability and the economics of space debris in 2019.
The initial phase of the project focused on the economics of space debris and was informed by inputs from several OECD Space Forum members – notably the Canadian Space Agency, the US NASA and the UK Space Agency – and space debris experts from the French National Centre for Space Studies (CNES) and the German Aerospace Centre (DLR). Commercial satellite operators were also consulted to inform policy discussions of industry perspectives on the issues of space debris mitigation. The work was presented in Undseth, Jolly and Olivari (2020[5]), providing a first-time comprehensive economic analysis of space debris and a stepping stone for further research.
In the next phase of the project, the OECD Space Forum launched an initiative to bring in the perspectives of the academic world and spur new research internationally. Young researchers – master’s and PhD students – and faculty members in universities and other research organisations from OECD member countries and beyond were invited to author research papers and provide initial answers to three fundamental questions: 1) what is the value of space-based infrastructure?; 2) what are the potential costs of space debris?; and 3) what are the benefits and costs of different policy options? Their work was then reviewed by experts from space agencies and ministries from ten countries, as well as the European Space Agency and the OECD Space Forum. Several partnering space agencies have further supported the work by launching their own calls for research proposals or providing financial support to participants in the OECD project.
Over Phase 1 in 2020-21 and Phase 2 in 2022-23, almost 30 research teams from 11 different countries submitted extended abstracts or final papers on the topics (Table 1.2). These multi-disciplinary and geographically diverse contributions brought together research from engineering, law, environmental management and economics. All teams were able to present their work and share their perspectives during the project, and the OECD thanks them warmly for their engagement. After peer review, only a few were selected for publication, based on the novelty of findings and practical applicability.
Table 1.2. Participating institutions in the OECD Project on the Economics of Space Sustainability
Selected findings from Phase 1 were published in the OECD report Earth Orbits at Risk (2022[14]). Themes included: valuing selected space activities and modelling the effects of disrupted space services on other sectors; introducing better categories of costs for inclusion in satellite impact assessments, modelling operator behaviour and incentives as well as the effects of different debris mitigation policies; exploring the active debris removal market; and assessing satellite mission efficiency.
The present publication presents six selected papers from Phase 2, in addition to references to the other researchers’ work. They offer new evidence on the value of space infrastructure for public and private end users, as well as for the first time, on policy options and their possible effects (notably fiscal measures and environmental certification schemes). The latter rely on methodologies that range from contingent valuation and qualitative surveys to scenario building. Also, Phase 2 of the project coincided with an initiative to fund specific socio-economic research on orbital debris and space sustainability by NASA, involving leading research organisations. The joint findings were presented at an OECD workshop on 14 December 2023 in Paris (see Box 1.2).
Box 1.2. NASA-funded projects on space sustainability important enablers of further research
In parallel with OECD’s international efforts, in 2022 the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration awarded funds to three university-based teams to analyse the economic, social, and policy issues associated with space sustainability (NASA, 2022[15]).
The first project produced a sophisticated open-source space debris model that allows users to model the long-term future space environment to understand growth in space debris and assess the effectiveness of debris prevention mechanisms (Liberty, 2024[16]). This could encourage more policy research in this domain. The beta version of the MIT Orbital Capacity Assessment Tool was released at an OECD Space Forum space sustainability workshop in December 2023. The project (“Adaptive Space Governance and Decision-Support using Source-Sink Evolutionary Environmental Models”) was submitted by Richard Linares and Danielle Wood of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Moriba Jah of the University of Texas-Austin. Privateer Space of Maui, Hawaii, and the Aerospace Corporation of El Segundo, California, verified and validated the project’s modelling tool.
The second project developed an experimental integrated assessment model for satellites and orbital debris that combines the astrodynamics of the orbital population and the economic behaviour of space actors (Rao et al., 2023[17]). This is a particularly useful tool for evaluating the effects of policy options on orbital congestion. The proposal “An Integrated Assessment Model for Satellite Constellations and Orbital Debris,” was submitted by Akhil Rao of Middlebury College, Daniel Kaffine of the University of Colorado-Boulder and Brian Weeden of the Secure World Foundation.
The third proposal uses a similar methodology to the one employed in Chapter 3 of this publication, studying the public’s willingness to pay for space debris mitigation (Wells, 2022[18]). Such research collaboration improves the international comparability of data and could make overall findings more robust. The proposal “Communication and Space Debris: Connecting with Public Knowledges and Identities” was submitted by Patrice Kohl, Sergio Alvarez, and Philip Metzger of the University of Central Florida.
The Economics of Space Sustainability: Delivering Economic Evidence to Guide Government Action
This publication aims to increase awareness of space sustainability issues and to take stock of the latest available research to inform policy decisions. The contents are organised as follows:
Part 1. State of the art on the economics of space sustainability... so far
Chapter 1 introduces the concept of space sustainability and provides background for the OECD project on the economics of space sustainability.
Chapter 2 summarises the key results from the OECD project so far, including the most recent findings from the academic community and the latest policy developments. It provides an overview of the degree and types of collision risk in different orbital regions, of the known value of space infrastructure at risk and of ways to better assess this value. It then discusses available policy options on the table for decision makers, their effectiveness and potential socio-economic effects.
The following chapters result from original work produced in 2022-23 by academic participants. They provide novel approaches and evidence in two principal areas:
Part 2. New evidence on the costs generated by space debris and the value of space infrastructure.
Chapter 3 authored by Lee et al., explores the value of public earth observation satellites at risk from space debris within the Korean context and uses contingent valuation to assess the potential lost value of Korean earth observation satellites in the low-earth orbit (LEO) due to space debris incidents. The study identifies an aggregated value loss of EUR 369.6 million (USD 388.7 million) over ten years, indicating not only the importance of the societal services provided by these satellites but also broad popular support for space debris mitigation.
In Chapter 4, Nakama et al. look at the value of space assets in Japan from a critical infrastructure perspective and explore the difficulties faced in substituting them with alternatives if services were to be interrupted. The chapter proposes a simple theoretical production function model to comprehend the macroeconomic benefits of vital space assets from a governmental standpoint.
In Chapter 5, Catalano and Morretta present new evidence on the benefits accrued by end users of earth observation services and applications through a survey of the end users of these services in Italy. Earth observation contributes to the understanding, analysis and management of different natural and societal aspects of planet Earth, with relevant socio-economic and environmental implications.
Chapter 6, authored by Paravano et al., explores the value of space infrastructure by asking commercial end users in Europe the extent to which they adopt satellite data for strategic and tactical decision making in selected emerging markets for such data: energy and utilities, transport and logistics; and insurance and finance. The chapter discusses the gap between the perceived and actual utility (enacted value) of satellite data for these users, and how this may affect further uptake.
Part 3. Assessing the effects of policy options for space debris mitigation
In Chapter 7, Scuderi discusses whether fiscal measures can be viable tools to address the accumulation of space debris and overcome the inherent fragility of non-binding instruments. Leveraging a literature review and past experiences with the adoption or proposed adoption of user fees for launches, the chapter suggests a design for a space debris mitigation tax scheme embedded in a framework of legal and fiscal principles.
In Chapter 8, Yap and David build three scenarios of how global space governance might evolve by 2030 and explore the role of a voluntary incentive-based industry certification scheme – the Space Sustainability Rating – in each of these scenarios. This is then used to formulate policy recommendations for how this rating system could contribute to earth-space sustainability in the future.
The OECD Space Forum Secretariat would like to thank again all the participants throughout the project, the authors and their institutions for their engagement, which will encourage further original research on the economics of space sustainability by the OECD, partnering space organisations and academia. This new body of evidence will support important decisions needed by policy makers to support a stable and accessible space environment for the benefit of our societies.
References
[4] Adilov, N., P. Alexander and B. Cunningham (2018), “An economic “Kessler Syndrome”: A dynamic model of earth orbit debris”, Economics Letters, Vol. 166, pp. 79-82, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2018.02.025.
[7] Anz-Meador, P., J. Opiela and J. Liou (2022), History of on-orbit satellite fragmentations: 16th edition, NASA/TP-20220019160, NASA Orbital Debris Program Office, https://orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/library/hoosf_16e.pdf.
[10] ESA (2024), Space debris by the numbers, webpage, https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Space_Debris/Space_debris_by_the_numbers.
[6] ESA (2023), Annual Space Environment Report 2023, European Space Agency, ESA Space Debris Office, https://www.sdo.esoc.esa.int/environment_report/Space_Environment_Report_latest.pdf.
[3] Kessler, D. and B. Cour-Palais (1978), “Collision frequency of artificial satellites: The creation of a debris belt”, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 83/A6, p. 2637, https://doi.org/10.1029/JA083iA06p02637.
[16] Liberty, J. (2024), Researchers release open-source space debris model, 10 January, https://news.mit.edu/2024/researchers-release-open-source-space-debris-model-0110.
[2] McDowell, J. (2024), Jonathan’s Space Report, website, https://planet4589.org/space/index.html.
[9] McKnight, D. et al. (2021), “Identifying the 50 statistically-most-concerning derelict objects in LEO”, Acta Astronautica, Vol. 181, pp. 282-291, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2021.01.021.
[1] NASA (2024), Monthly total of objects in orbit by object type, status as of 3 February 2024, data provided by the NASA Orbital Debris Office.
[15] NASA (2022), NASA Funds Projects to Study Orbital Debris, Space Sustainability, webpage, US National Aeronautics and Space Administration, https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-funds-projects-to-study-orbital-debris-space-sustainability/.
[11] OECD (2023), The Space Economy in Figures: Responding to Global Challenges, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/fa5494aa-en.
[14] OECD (2022), Earth’s Orbits at Risk: The Economics of Space Sustainability, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/16543990-en.
[17] Rao, A. et al. (2023), OPUS: An Integrated Assessment Model for Satellites and Orbital Debris, Papers 2309.10252, arXiv.org, https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2309.10252.html.
[13] UN COPUOS (2018), Guidelines for the Long-term Sustainability of Outer Space, Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, https://www.unoosa.org/res/oosadoc/data/documents/2018/aac_1052018crp/aac_1052018crp_20_0_html/AC105_2018_CRP20E.pdf.
[5] Undseth, M., C. Jolly and M. Olivari (2020), “Space sustainability: The economics of space debris in perspective”, OECD Science, Technology and Industry Policy Papers, No. 87, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/a339de43-en.
[8] US Space Force (2024), Space-track website, Data accessed 12 January, https://www.space-track.org/#launchData.
[18] Wells, R. (2022), New NASA-funded Study Hopes to Put Risks of Space Junk on People’s Radar, University of Central Florida, https://www.ucf.edu/news/new-nasa-funded-study-hopes-to-put-risks-of-space-junk-on-peoples-radar/.
[12] Yap, X. and B. Truffer (2022), “Contouring ‘earth-space sustainability’”, Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, Vol. 44, pp. 185-193, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eist.2022.06.004.