The Philippines is one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world. It ranked as the country facing the highest disaster risk according to the WorldRiskIndex 2023. The country’s high exposure to both geophysical and hydrometeorological hazards is to a large extent a consequence of its location in one of the most tectonically active regions along the Pacific Ring of Fire and on the Pacific typhoon belt. The Philippines is exposed to typhoons, floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, fires and drought, which lead to significant social, economic and environmental costs. Between 2000 and 2022, 361 disasters triggered by natural hazards led to almost 27 000 deaths, affected over 181 million people and caused nearly USD 24 billion in economic losses. Storms (51%), floods (29%), earthquakes (7%), landslides (4%), and volcanic eruptions (4%) comprise the majority of disaster events (CRED, 2024[1]).
Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2024
Philippines
Introduction
Philippines: Disaster occurrences (from 1981 to 2023) and WorldRiskIndex
Source: EMDAT and WorldRiskIndex.
The hazardscape
Typhoons and floods are the hazards to which the Philippines is most exposed, and they are becoming more frequent. They account for 83% of disaster fatalities, 96% of affected people and 98% of economic damage (CRED, 2024[1]). The country’s exposure to typhoons is the highest in the world, with approximately 19 typhoons (roughly a quarter of all tropical cyclones) occurring within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) annually, and with 6-7 of them causing significant damage (Cinco et al., 2016[2]; Holden and Marshall, 2018[3]; OCHA, 2014[4]). Most of the typhoon-related impacts are caused by few catastrophic events: between 1970 and 2014, 80% of typhoon-induced deaths and damage were associated with just six events, including Typhoon Haiyan in 2013 (Espada, 2018[5]). Typhoon Haiyan, considered the strongest cyclone ever to make landfall in the Philippines, killed more than 6 300 people, destroyed more than 1.1 million houses, affected 16 million people and led to USD 12.9 billion in damage (World Bank, 2017[6]).
Monthly frequency of tropical cyclones entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility and tropical cyclones making landfall from 1951 to 2013
Source: (Cinco et al., 2016[2]), “Observed trends and impacts of tropical cyclones in the Philippines”, International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 36/14, pp. 4638-4650, https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.4659.
Typhoons in the Philippines have significant socio-economic implications as they increase household poverty (Jha et al., 2018[7]). In the aftermath of Typhoon Haiyan, 2.3 million people were estimated to have fallen below the poverty line (World Bank, 2017[6]). The island most frequently affected by typhoons is Luzon, and it also records the highest typhoon-induced rainfall, especially when compared to the southern parts of the country (Cinco et al., 2016[2]). While the frequency and intensity of typhoons appear to be increasing, there is uncertainty regarding the effects of future climate change on typhoon activity in the region. However, there is significant evidence indicating a likely increase in the rainfall intensity of severe events (World Bank and ADB, 2021[8]).
Extreme rainfall events, including those that are not typhoon-related, are associated with major damage as they can lead to both floods and landslides. Low-lying and partially developed areas are exposed and vulnerable to recurrent flooding brought about by the monsoon rains. The increasing intensity of the monsoon seasons, along with rapid urban development, are exacerbating this flood risk. Flood damages are projected to increase by over 200% by 2030 in some areas of Manila as a consequence of increased extreme weather events and urbanisation (Kefi et al., 2020[9]). Assuming the government maintains a protection level for a 1-in-12-year event (i.e. there will not be full protection against rare events), it is estimated that riverine flooding will affect 1.7 million people annually by 2030 (WRI, n.d.[10]).
The Philippines is also exposed to frequent landslide events, often resulting from other hazards such as heavy rainfall, storms, earthquakes or volcanic eruptions, but can also be caused by human activity including mining or construction (Froude and Petley, 2018[11]). The Baguio mountainous area in northern Luzon, which has the highest recorded rainfall in the country, is also the most landslide-prone, with a significant number of rainfall-induced landslides occurring as a consequence of the southwest monsoon, tropical cyclones and their interactions (Nolasco-Javier, Kumar and Tengonciang, 2015[12]).
The risk associated with destructive earthquakes in the Philippines is also quite high. In the Davao region, the probability of a severe magnitude 8 earthquake occurring in the next 50 years is estimated at over 70% (Pailoplee and Boonchaluay, 2016[13]). Soil conditions are an important factor determining the damage from earthquakes, and liquefaction is a serious concern, especially in low-lying areas of central Luzon and Metro Manila.
Droughts constitute another hazard with significant impact, causing severe losses in the agricultural sector. Between 1990 and 2022, six recorded drought events affected more than 3 million people and caused approximately USD 277 million in damage (CRED, 2024[1]). The ENSO cycle is one of the main drivers of drought in the country. According to the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAG-ASA) El Nino Advisory No. 9 issued on 7 March 2024, drought is defined as three consecutive months of reduction from average rainfall by more than 60%. Droughts can last up to 11 months and affect the whole country in a given year, though higher drought intensities occur in the western and southeastern coastal regions (Salvacion, 2021[14]). Grain-producing regions at the northern tip of Luzon, on Mindanao and in several provinces in the western and central parts of the country are the aeras most vulnerable to the effects of droughts (Cruz, Aliño and David, 2017[15]).
The Philippines also faces significant volcanic risk due to the presence of 24 active volcanoes. Volcanic activity in the Philippines is the highest in the world, with a fraction of eruptions causing major damage, especially in the case of the Taal and Mayon volcanoes. The Taal Volcano in southern Luzon is the second most frequently erupting volcano, and its potential for a high magnitude eruption is a threat to around 2 million people in its vicinity in the Batangas Province, but also to coastal populations located within a wider radius due to its potential to generate a tsunami (Paris et al., 2013[16]; Delos Reyes et al., 2018[17]).
Overall, therefore, the Philippines is highly exposed and vulnerable to disaster risks. More than 90% of the population is located in areas exposed to floods, cyclones, earthquakes, or a combination thereof (Chantarat and Raschky, 2020[18]). Population and asset exposure is higher along the coast than in the inland areas, with the majority of the population residing within 60 km of the coast and with the four major cities (Manila, Davao, Cebu and Puerto Princesa) located in coastal areas (Cruz, Aliño and David, 2017[15]). Lower-income populations are disproportionately vulnerable to disaster impacts; as of the first half of 2023, 16.4% of the population still lived below the national poverty threshold of PHP 13 797 per month (PSA, 2023[19]). Both exposure and vulnerability are being exacerbated by an increasing number of urban poor communities in hazard-prone areas, linked to rapid and unplanned urbanisation.
Climate change perspective
Climate change is exacerbating disaster risks, with extreme weather events such as heavy precipitation and typhoons becoming more frequent in recent decades, a trend which is projected to continue (World Bank and ADB, 2021[8]).
The proportion of the population in informal settlements is very high. For example, one-third of Metro Manila’s population and as much as 60% of the population in some rural areas reside in informal housing (Usamah et al., 2014[20]). Furthermore, according to the Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028, 3.7 million informal settler families do not have security of tenure as of 2021, 500 000 of which are living in slums and high-risk areas in Metro Manila or the National Capital Region (UN-Habitat, 2023[21]). People living in informal settlements are extremely vulnerable to disaster impacts, as the houses are poorly constructed, typically with substandard materials, and living conditions are characterised by higher vulnerability associated with inadequate access to clean water and health care (Morin, Ahmad and Warnitchai, 2016[22]). Urban vulnerability is also exacerbated by poor enforcement of land-use plans and zoning regulations (Yonson, Noy and Gaillard, 2017[23]). The vulnerability of the Philippines to the economic impact of disasters is exacerbated by the country’s reliance on climate-dependent sectors such as agriculture, aquaculture and coastal and marine resources (Brucal et al., 2020[24]). Almost half a million people annually face short-term consumption poverty due to disasters (Walsh and Hallegatte, 2020[25]). All of these vulnerabilities are especially relevant in the face of climatic changes that increase the hazard frequencies in the location in which these vulnerable populations are most exposed.
Challenges for disaster risk management policy
After the devastation brought about by Typhoon Haiyan in 2013, the Philippines government increased its efforts to develop the country’s disaster risk management institutions and resources. The country is shifting its disaster risk management from a reactive to a proactive approach, with an increasing focus on disaster preparedness and resilience building (World Bank, 2023[26]). While these developments are very positive, various disaster risk management-related issues remain. There is an urgent need to strengthen the capacity of local disaster risk management institutions, especially regarding policy implementation (UNDRR, 2019[27]). Current disaster risk management processes are also characterised by an insufficient focus on and funding of disaster preparedness (Brucal et al., 2020[24]; Dariagan, Atando and Asis, 2020[28]). Furthermore, disaster risk reduction initiatives need to target lower administrative levels, as there is broad spatial heterogeneity in social vulnerability at a sub-provincial level (Lloyd et al., 2022[29]; Yonson and Noy, 2019[30]).
Financial aid is also not always disbursed across provinces proportionately to the disaster risk or impacts the provinces face, and disaster risk management funds are often underutilised due to bureaucratic obstacles (e.g. complex approval processes) (Brucal et al., 2020[24]; Domingo and Manejar, 2018[31]; World Bank, 2020[32]). Emergency and other post-disaster funding processes should be streamlined and strengthened, and bureaucratic obstacles should be removed. This should include efforts such a developing an annual risk financing strategy which is integrated within national fiscal planning, simplifying and streamlining the procedures for accessing the NDRRM fund, revising Quick Response Fund allocations and enhancing the control and tracking of post-disaster funding and expenditure (World Bank, 2020[32]). Disaster risk finance outcomes could also be improved by addressing the complexities in sourcing the revenue of local governments (Resuello, 2020[33]).
There is a need to improve the enforcement of land-use planning. At the community level, disaster preparedness is inadequate, with only one-third of Filipinos undertaking measures to prepare for disasters (Bollettino et al., 2020[34]), therefore strengthening disaster risk management education is important (Pulhin and Tapia, 2021[35]).
References
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