India, which ranks among the most disaster-prone countries in the world (third in the WorldRiskIndex 2023), is exposed to a range of natural hazards including floods, droughts, cyclones, heatwaves, earthquakes, landslides, tsunamis and wildfires (Bhatt, 2017[1]).
Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2024
Developing amid Disaster Risks
Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India
India
Introduction
India: Disaster occurrences (from 1981 to 2023) and WorldRiskIndex
Source: EM-DAT and WorldRiskIndex.
The hazardscape
India is highly exposed to floods, with 103 events having been recorded from 2009 to 2023. More than 80% of flood events are caused by monsoons or heavy rain, with the rest caused by storm-induced torrential rain or by dam release or failure (Mohanty, Mudgil and Karmakar, 2020[2]). Twelve percent of India’s land is prone to flooding and river erosion, and floods affect more than 2% of India’s land annually (ADRC, 2022[3]; NIDM, 2014[4]). Flood events are a significant contributor to the country’s disaster losses, with an impact of USD 7 billion per year on average (World Bank and ADB, 2021[5]). While floods occur in almost all of the country’s river basins, they are most frequent in the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins (ADRC, 2022[3]; Mohanty, Mudgil and Karmakar, 2020[2]). Flood-related deaths and economic impacts are rising, partly because of increasing flood frequency and intensity, but also as a consequence of large increases in population exposed in flood-prone regions in the states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal (Patri, Sharma and Patra, 2022[6]; Singh and Kumar, 2017[7]). Furthermore, climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of flood events across the country (Ali, Modi and Mishra, 2019[8]; Patri, Sharma and Patra, 2022[6]; Singh and Kumar, 2017[7]; 2013[9]). Between 2010 and 2030, the affected population is projected to increase from 12 million to 32 million annually, with the greatest increase in people affected by extreme floods projected to be in Bihar, one of India’s poorest states (WRI, n.d.[10]; Willner et al., 2018[11]).
India’s coastline experiences many tropical cyclones, and the intensity of major cyclones has been increasing in recent decades (Balaguru et al., 2014[12]; NCRMP, n.d.[13]). The likelihood of cyclone-induced floods is especially high during the monsoon season due to antecedent saturated soil conditions (Rajeev and Mishra, 2022[14]). Cyclone exposure is high, as 40% of India’s population reside within 100 km of the coastline and thus approximately 370 million people are exposed to cyclone risk annually (NCRMP, n.d.[13]). India’s east coast is more exposed, with the coastal regions of West Bengal, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh being the most prone to cyclones (Mohapatra et al., 2011[15]).
India experiences frequent and impactful droughts. Its dry regions cover approximately one-third of the country’s total land area and are home to roughly one-third of the population (Gupta, Tyagi and Sehgal, 2011[16]). Severe droughts are most frequent in the Deccan Plateau, a large region covering more than 40% of southern India, with significant drought conditions occurring approximately once every three years (UNDRR, 2021[17]). Droughts are shifting, however, to the important agricultural regions of coastal South India, central Maharashtra and the Indo-Gangetic plain (Mallya et al., 2016[18]). Droughts can severely affect agricultural production, especially in non-irrigated areas, with approximately two-thirds of the cultivable area being vulnerable to drought (Kala, 2017[19]; NIDM, 2014[4]). Drought events can also cause cascading effects on other economic sectors, such as food processing, leading to severe economic repercussions. Despite large reductions in the contribution of agriculture to the country’s GDP in recent decades, the annual impact of severe droughts appears to be on the order of 2-5% of GDP (Gadgil and Gadgil, 2006[20]). For example, during the severe drought in Tamil Nadu in 2012-13, a 20% decrease in production in the primary sector led to a 5% reduction in industry and a 3% decrease in services (UNDRR, 2021[17]).
Subsistence farmers are among the most vulnerable to drought and even milder droughts can have significant impacts on them (UNDRR, 2021[17]). Drought vulnerability is exacerbated by insufficient irrigation coverage (more than half of the total cropped area is rain fed), a lack of water-retaining infrastructure, and heavy reliance on groundwater resources (Reserve Bank of India, 2013[21]; Pathak and Dodamani, 2018[22]; UNDRR, 2021[17]). Climatic variability has been increasing in frequency and intensity in the form of prolonged dry spells, increased total dry days and decreased light precipitation days, and this has led to more agricultural droughts. These trends are projected to continue and intensify, despite a projected increase in total monsoon precipitation (Aadhar and Mishra, 2018[23]; Bisht et al., 2018[24]; Mishra and Liu, 2014[25]). The area at risk of severe drought is projected to increase by 150% by the end of the century (Aadhar and Mishra, 2018[23]). With warming of 1.5-2°C, a 1-in-100-year event is estimated to become a 1-in-40-to-50-year event (World Bank and ADB, 2021[5]).
Heatwaves represent another significant health risk for the Indian population. India experiences some of the highest temperatures in the world, with an average monthly maximum of 36°C (World Bank and ADB, 2021[5]). Heatwaves are relatively more frequent in the Indo-Gangetic plain, with five or six heatwave events occurring annually on average (ADRC, 2022[3]). Heatwave exposure is increasing due to the country’s high rates of population growth and urbanisation. Urbanisation increases heatwave vulnerability, as urban areas (especially slums) are associated with the heat-island effect of increased temperatures due to paved surfaces radiating heat and a lack of greenness to absorb it (UNDRR, 2023[26]). Heatwave likelihood is also projected to increase the most along India’s west coast (World Bank and ADB, 2021[5]).
India is also exposed to earthquakes, with almost 60% of the country prone to quakes of at least moderate intensity. Most of the high-risk areas are located in the northern regions affected by the Himalayan uplift (NIDM, 2014[4]). Earthquakes have caused severe impacts. In the last 15 years, 10 major earthquakes led to more than 20 000 deaths (NDMA, n.d.[27]), while the Gujarat earthquake of 2001 caused about the same level of mortality and was the deadliest natural hazard disaster event of recent decades. Earthquake exposure is exacerbated by population growth as well as significant increases in built-up areas featuring multistorey buildings, factories, malls and warehouses (NDMA, n.d.[27]). Widespread substandard construction is linked to high seismic vulnerability (Jain, 2016[28]; Mittal et al., 2023[29]).
India is also affected by landslides, with more than 12% of the country’s landmass deemed to be prone to landslides (NDMA, 2019[30]). Major landslides can lead to fatalities and large-scale destruction of property and infrastructure. Landslides occur mainly in the hilly regions of the Himalayas, northeast India, the Nilgiris, and the Eastern and Western Ghats (ADRC, 2022[3]). They are most often triggered by heavy rainfall but can also be generated by seismic activity (NDMA, 2019[30]).
Damage and deaths from natural disasters in India and the introduction of important disaster management policies
Source: EM-DAT database (https://www.emdat.be).
Climate change perspective
Given its large population and high exposure to natural hazards, India’s disaster exposure, along with that of the People’s Republic of China (hereafter “China”), is the highest in the world in absolute terms. Disaster vulnerability is exacerbated by high rates of poverty and inequality (INFORM, 2023[31]). More than 30% of the population live below the national poverty line (UNDRR, 2022[32]). Human-related factors such as high population density and growth, unemployment, environmental deterioration, poorly planned development and urbanisation, low building standards, and rudimentary agricultural and water management practices further affect and exacerbate disaster vulnerability (ADRC, 2022[3]; Yadav and Barve, 2017[33]). Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of most extreme weather events, and sea ‑level rise is threatening coastal populations. By 2050, more than half of India’s GDP is projected to be exposed to extreme weather, wildfires and sea level rise; more than 60% of agricultural land may become exposed to water stress; and 40% of the population may be exposed to heatwaves (S&P Global, 2022[34]).
Challenges for disaster risk management policy
While India has made incremental improvements towards a proactive disaster risk management approach, many of the current disaster risk management practices remain response-based, and there is still an insufficient focus on prevention (Jain and Bashir Bazaz, 2016[35]; Ogra et al., 2021[36]). Co‑operation among government agencies needs to be fortified, as do partnerships with local communities. A conceptual shift towards disaster risk reduction characterized by understanding the social determinants of disasters (Ogra et al., 2021[36])would help bridge gaps between national-level policy formulation, and local-level policy implementation. The focus on urban risk management is limited, as regards, for example, drought risk management, where increased attention needs to be paid to water access and water quality in urban areas (Jain and Bashir Bazaz, 2016[35]). Urban risk management should incorporate a multi-hazard approach rather than being divided among departments and at different levels of governance.
The implementation of flood-related policies suffers from a lack of successful enforcement and is associated with the aforementioned policy discord (Gupta, 2020[37]; Mohanty, Mudgil and Karmakar, 2020[2]). For example, city drainage systems need upgrades to be able to cope with increasing rainfall intensity (Gupta, 2020[37]). Insufficient maintenance of flood-control structures represents another major issue (Mohanty, Mudgil and Karmakar, 2020[2]; Singh and Kumar, 2017[7]). The nature and drivers of floods differ between the Brahmaputra River basin, the northwest region, the Ganges River basin and Central India and Deccan, suggesting a potential need for varied and location-specific flood risk reduction strategies (Mohanty, Mudgil and Karmakar, 2020[2]). This should be a priority, as by one estimate, approximately 26 of India’s 36 states will require significant increases in flood protection in the next 25 years just to keep high-end fluvial flood risk at present levels (Willner et al., 2018[11]).
Drought management systems and strategies would benefit from re-examination. Improvements in rainwater harvesting, development of technically advanced water storage structures, revival of traditional water conservation systems, increased use of micro-level irrigation systems, and promotion and market development of drought-tolerant crops should all be explored (Kala, 2017[19]; Nair, Gupta and Nathawat, 2024[38]). Furthermore, a localised approach would enhance the accuracy of drought forecasting and early warning systems (Nair, Gupta and Nathawat, 2024[38]).
Heat wave management should focus on embedding preventive measures into social care structures in the short-term, issuing early warnings for impending risks, and an employment of both passive and active cooling strategies in healthcare and other critical facilities, and the use of cool roofing technologies in the medium- and long-term (Guleria and Gupta, 2024[39]).
As regards both earthquake and cyclone risk management, it is necessary to increase the safety of the built environment. Potential areas of focus include competence-based licensing of civil and structural engineers, training and education of all construction chain participants, building a research and development culture of seismic safety, and enhancing building code enforcement and building inspection (Jain, 2016[28]; Goyal, 2024[40]).
Disaster risk layering, further emphasis on risk transfer mechanisms, and the fostering of public-private partnerships could help relieve existing financing challenges (Bahadur, Lovell and Pichon, 2016[41]; Jain and Bashir Bazaz, 2016[35]; Sen, 2017[42]). For example, tools such as reserve funds and contingent credit could be used for immediate funding needs, while insurance and catastrophe (CAT) bonds could be utilised to fund further recovery and reconstruction (Panwar, Sen and Shaw, 2022[43]). Developments of this type would represent a beneficial shift from a response-based financing strategy that relies heavily upon post-disaster budgetary reallocation from the central government and donor assistance.
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