The ITF Transport Outlook 2023 was prepared by the Research Centre at the ITF, with support from numerous individuals and partner organisations. The project was managed by Orla McCarthy, with Josephine Macharia as deputy project manager. Luis Martinez led the modelling. Jagoda Egeland and Elisabeth Windisch provided oversight.
The lead authors and modellers of the ITF Transport Outlook 2023 were as follows:
|
Chapter |
Authors |
Modellers |
|---|---|---|
|
Chapter 1. The outlook for transport: Speedy recovery, new uncertainties |
Vatsalya Sohu |
|
|
Chapter 2. Decarbonising transport: Scenarios for the future |
Orla McCarthy |
Matteo Craglia Luis Martinez Andrea Papu Carrone John Pritchard Maya ter Laag Mallory Trouvé |
|
Chapter 3. Managing transport demand: Offering attractive choices |
Joshua Paternina Blanco Orla McCarthy |
Andrea Papu Carrone John Pritchard Maya ter Laag Mallory Trouvé |
|
Chapter 4. Cleaner fleets: The key to decarbonising transport |
Josephine Macharia Till Bunsen |
Matteo Craglia Andrea Papu Carrone |
|
Chapter 5. Liveable cities: The broader benefits of transport decarbonisation |
Nicholas Caros |
Mallory Trouvé Luis Martinez Matteo Craglia |
|
Chapter 6. Investing in the future: The financial implications of decarbonising transport |
Orla McCarthy Reece Fisher Rex Deighton-Smith |
John Pritchard Luis Martinez Matteo Craglia |
Statistical and analytical support was provided by Diego Botero, Rachele Poggi and Xiaotong Zhang (ITF). Data collection support was provided by Rita Prior Felipe and Eyal Li (ITF) and Shaoni Purkait (Consultant).
Editing and publication support was provided by David Prater, Hilary Gaboriau and Michael Kloth (ITF). The cover design is by Chris Wells (ITF).
The authors would like to thank colleagues at the ITF for their valuable comments and contributions to the report: Malithi Fernando, Véronique Feypell, Matthew Ireland, Andreas Kopf, Olaf Merk, Stephen Perkins and Olivia Wessendorff.
The authors would also like to thank the following non-ITF contributors for authoring boxes in the report: Jane Cheatley, Cédric Doucet and Michele Cecchini of the OECD’s Employment, Labour and Social Affairs directorate for Box 5.1 on the connection between transport planning and physical activity; and Jasper Verschuur (University of Oxford) for Box 6.2 on decarbonisation and climate change risks to port infrastructure.
The authors are also grateful for the comments and contributions of their external reviewers: Anne Aguiléra (Université Gustave Eiffel), Paulo Anciaes (University College London), Juan Pablo Bocarejo (Universidad de los Andes), Pierpaolo Cazzola (University of California Davis), Francisco Furtado (Centro de Competências de Planeamento, de Políticas e de Prospetiva da Administração Pública), Fabien Leurent (Université Gustave Eiffel), Alan McKinnon (Kuehne Logistics University, Hamburg), Jayant Mukhopadhaya (International Council for Clean Transportation, ICCT), Daniel Sperling (University of California Davis) and Jose Viegas (Professor emeritus, Lisbon University).
The policy scenarios in this report were influenced by surveys of transport experts in academia, industry, international organisations and government as well as the Transport Research Committee. The ITF thanks the respondents for their contributions. The report has also benefitted from the insightful contributions of panelists during the “ITF in Focus” session at the ITF Summit 2022, who discussed the approaches to consider for this edition: Clarisse Cunha Linke (Institute for Transportation Development and Policy), Mohamed Hegazy (Africa Road Transport, UNFCCC Climate Champions), Neil Pedersen (Transportation Research Board) and Sonal Shah (The Urban Catalysts).
The modelling approach was inspired by Tristan Smith (University College London), Alan McKinnon (Kühne Logistics University), Andreas Schäfer (University College of London) and Lóránt Tavasszy (Delft University of Technology). The ITF also benefited from help provided by the following bodies of the OECD: the Environment Directorate for trade projections, the International Energy Agency for consolidation of strong decarbonisation scenarios, and the Economics Department for gross domestic product projections.
Several partners have been valuable in developing the ITF modelling framework, methodologies and providing data: the ICCT for data on local pollutant emissions; the International Maritime Organization for data on vessel fleet composition and vessel speed data; the Energy and Resources Institute India; the China Academy of Transportation Sciences; the Japan International Cooperation Agency; the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Development Bank of Latin America for data on Latin American cities and trade; the Road Freight Lab of the World Business Council on Sustainable Development on freight optimisation; and the International Civil Aviation Organisation and the Airport Council International Europe on aviation forecasts and emissions.
Finally, the ITF Transport Outlook 2023 benefitted from valuable comments by the members of the ITF Transport Research Committee, which also approved the report.
The International Transport Forum is an intergovernmental organisation with 64 member countries. It acts as a think tank for transport policy and organises the Annual Summit of transport ministers. The ITF is the only global body that covers all transport modes. The ITF is politically autonomous and administratively integrated with the OECD.
The ITF works for transport policies that improve peoples’ lives. Our mission is to foster a deeper understanding of the role of transport in economic growth, environmental sustainability and social inclusion and to raise the public profile of transport policy.
The ITF organises global dialogue for better transport. We act as a platform for discussion and pre-negotiation of policy issues across all transport modes. We analyse trends, share knowledge and promote exchange among transport decision-makers and civil society. The ITF’s Annual Summit is the world’s largest gathering of transport ministers and the leading global platform for dialogue on transport policy.
The Members of the Forum are: Albania, Armenia, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Cambodia, Canada, Chile, China (People’s Republic of), Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, India, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Kazakhstan, Korea, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Mexico, Republic of Moldova, Mongolia, Montenegro, Morocco, the Netherlands, New Zealand, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russian Federation, Serbia, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Tunisia, Türkiye, Ukraine, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, the United States and Uzbekistan.